Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

High voter turnout expected in MA-SEN contest, could approach 70% (Boston Herald).

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU
 
jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 09:25 AM
Original message
High voter turnout expected in MA-SEN contest, could approach 70% (Boston Herald).
If so, this would be great news ... for COAKLEY!

High voter turnout expected
By Jessica Fargen | Sunday, January 17, 2010

Turnout could hit as high as 70 percent Tuesday in the high-stakes U.S. Senate battle between Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley and GOP state Sen. Scott Brown, according to some local election officials.

Absentee ballot requests have increased - on par with levels ordinarily seen in a presidential election - some town clerks say. And town and city halls were buzzing last week with people voting and asking questions about registration in advance of the election to fill the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedys seat, said Theodora Eaton, president of the states city and town clerks association.

I wasnt anticipating the interest that has developed, said Needham town clerk Eaton, who processed 1,000 absentee ballots and expects up to 70 percent turnout.

Well see well over what was originally expected, for turnout said Braintree town clerk Joseph F. Powers, attributing the high level of voter interest to TV ads and media attention.

Gerry Cuddyer, chairwoman of the board of election commissioners in Boston, processed 4,800 absentee ballots and has been flooded with calls from voters checking their registration.

That would indicate to me that turnout may be higher than expected, she said.

Turnout is crucial in the tight race, which also has the candidates facing the unusual challenge of a special January election after a holiday weekend.

On Election Day, Coakley will have workers in every state Senate district, reaching out to their volunteers, said spokeswoman Alex Zaroulis.

<SNIP>

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20100117...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
KingFlorez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 09:40 AM
Response to Original message
1. Lets hope this turns out to be true
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 09:41 AM
Response to Original message
2. That should help
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 09:41 AM
Response to Original message
3. This would seem good for Coakley as Dems outnumber repugs in Mass.
but then again - if the other 30% not voting are progressives that stay at home to punish the Bad Obama....




























:evilgrin:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. Well, if they stay home, they give the repubs a proxy vote...
which shows they are NOT progressives in ANY way, they are "real progressives" a euphemism now being used by third party advocates it seems, imo.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jpak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Yup!
:hi:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #3
16. Regressives
because that's what they create, is regression
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #3
17. The problem is that you have some registered Dems saying they'll vote for Brown.
So to say our sheer numbers of registered Dems won't mean much if enough of them vote for Brown on Tuesday.

I'm trying to keep positive, even with the bad feelings I am having. It is not a usual time, there is too much unrest and dissatisfaction because everyone expects Obama and the Dems to magically change things overnight. And they are being exploited by demogogues who know how to manipulate and lie to them.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FVZA_Colonel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #17
22. How many really is another matter.
I can't imagine there are that many "Reagan Democrats" left up there, but there probably are some.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. Hard to tell, but I think race may be playing a bigger role here than we would think.
I remember the days of Southie Bostonians and the antibusing racists very well. nOw this whole thing may have resurfaced in a different time to be sure. I just think the fact that a black man is our president enrages some people to the point of irrationality...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
FVZA_Colonel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #26
40. That is disconcerting.
Hopefully, there are not that many of them, but that's something we may just have to wait for and see.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bitwit1234 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
4. The higher the turnout the better for democrats correct.
Didn't the same almost 90% are dems. Even if some dems vote for brown there should be enough who vote democratic.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Perky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 05:51 PM
Response to Reply #4
46. Absolutely True. Brown's froces are engaged but they are not legion
We win with a huge turnout because the larger the overall percentage that comes out, the smaller the piece of the enlarged pie he gets.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 10:13 AM
Response to Original message
5. Not sure who high turnout will favor. I dont think it is clear cut in MA.
Edited on Sun Jan-17-10 10:13 AM by Mass
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
hlthe2b Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 10:26 AM
Response to Original message
6. Good weather, hopefully.....
The RW is motivated, so we have to have good turnout...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Ruh Roh...
Tuesday...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon.

http://www.boston.com/weather/extended
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #7
15. That's normal weather here - at least it won't be cold
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Jennicut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #15
21. LOL. Yeah, snow is pretty much a weekly occurance in New England during Jan/Feb
I was just happy it got up to 40 degrees in Northern CT the other day.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 12:32 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. Was 48 up here in NH Friday
Took my summer car out for a ride - niiiice!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 10:41 AM
Response to Original message
8. This means that all the likely voter and in the case of Rasmussen "very likely"
voter models need to be, at least mentally rethought. All showed Coakley doing better for "registered voter" than for "likely voter - and this information, if accurate means that the result will be somewhere between their likely voter estimate that assumed a low turn out and the registered voters estimate.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
flamingdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
11. Good news nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Could also be bad news in that the stupid tea party activist have gotten people worked up in a frenz...
Edited on Sun Jan-17-10 11:38 AM by bigdarryl
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
flamingdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. arrrg. This is nervewracking nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
14. I hope so. I know I'll be calling my family and friends hourly to ensure they vote
It takes a little effort for my aging parents to get to the polls, but you can bet they will be there - or I'll disown them ;)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. My daughter is near frantic. She has been on her cell phone, Twitter, texting,
and on Facebook exhorting anybody and everybody she thinks is a good Dem to vote for Coakley.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. Good - sounds like the fire is lit - and just in the nick of time
Lets hope we can turn this ship back in the right (left ;)) direction!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 11:55 AM
Response to Original message
19. I sure HOPE high turnout helps Coakley. I saw the talking heads saying that it may help
Brown in this case since Repubs. are so motivated...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Sebastian Doyle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 12:47 PM
Response to Reply #19
24. As we saw in 2008, high turnout is the only thing that trumps electro-fraud
Massachusetts is supposedly a Democratic state (despite having Weld and Mittens as governors in recent years) so high turnout should favor Coakley.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. Yes, but in '08 the DEMS. were energized which is why we won by so much.
Now, the Repubs. and teabaggers are energized. I HOPE the high turnout is made up of Dems. \
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #19
25. of coarse the media heads are going to say that they want this idiot to win that
has apparently become blatantly obvious
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 01:05 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. Very true. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BayAreaDem Donating Member (8 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
29. My first post and some analysis
Mass Total registered voters 4.1 million

2008 Election: 3 million votes ( 73% turnout )

Obama 62% ( 1.9 mil votes) Vs McCain ( 1.1 mil Votes)

2009 Dem Primary ( 650,000 votes, 22% of 2008 votes )

Registered voters Distribution ( 38% Dems, 11% Repubs, 51% Independents )

Assumptions:
1. Atleast 57% (650k primary voters) of total 38% Dems will vote 95% in favor of Coakly.

2. Most Repubs and M voters will vote again (overly excited, lets assume 75% will vote again) in favor of Brown ( 1.1 M + 30k from above ) = 1.13Mil * 0.75 = 850k, I think this is here, Brown pulled ahead, Coakly assumed this will be low turnout and Brown will not pull more than 50% of McCain voters.

3. All remaining Mccain voters will never vote for Coakly.

4. I donot have distribution model of 2008 votes (Dems vs Indies vs Repubs ), assuming it matches or is near 38,11,51

Remaining voters: 3Mil (2008 election) - 1.1Mil (Mccain voters) - 0.65Mil (2009 primary)= 1.25Mil

Coakly needs atleast 233k votes to beat Brown, that is out of remaining 1.25M = 19% more voters or 7.8% in comparison to 2008 election. If Coakly can pull Dem's out of dens that should be enough to pull her ahead.

Total number of expected votes: 1.7Mil ( 58% of 2008 votes )

If the turnout goes beyond 58% turnout, there is no way brown can win unless he take votes more than 50%, which is impossible as they are all obama voters and Obama approval rating is in mid 50's in the state.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BayAreaDem Donating Member (8 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 01:21 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. btw bostonglobe is running a online survey "will you vote" with 58% decided.
This needs to go above in order for Coakly's chances.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Teaser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. online survey...
not really telling us much
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BayAreaDem Donating Member (8 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. You are right...
58% online survey is not great, i would have assumed this lot higher for this case.
In General online trends sway +-20% of online survey... but who knows...in this case. I guess polling models are expecting around 50-55% polling vs 2008 election and thats not good, considering repubs are all fired up. Anything more improves Coakly's chances dramatically. Few percent will put her right at top.





Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #33
36. Online polling is completely unscientific and can not be made scientific
There is self selection, no control over who votes (ie I can vote either way - though I am a registered NJ voter), little control over how many times they vote.

The only reason it makes sense to respond is the media that hosts them, gives the results - and that in itself hurts.

(Forgot to say - Welcome to DU. You are right that higher turnout has to help the side that is modeled as not as interested in voting - the other side may be saturated.)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BayAreaDem Donating Member (8 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. Thanks! DU is great progressive community..
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
quiller4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #29
42. Both the Globe and Herald are predicting voter turnout over 60%.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Betty Karlson Donating Member (902 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #29
47. Two problems:
According to a recent poll (Suffolk I believe) up to 17 % of the democrats will vote for Brown. Your calculations don't include the effect of the libertarian candidate either. You may have to adjust your prognosis a bit.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Peacetrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
32. Hi turnout helps the Democrats!!! That is very heartening to read.. NT
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Phx_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 02:13 PM
Response to Original message
34. Please, Massachusetteans (is that a word?), do not let
Ted Kennedy's seat be turned over to a Republican. And yes, it IS Ted Kennedy's seat until someone else wins it.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
CTyankee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #34
43. It's actually "Bay staters." Easier to say, right? nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Top Cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
35. I hope the Dems & Indies don't disappoint the country ...
This is to important to let another party take a seat that has been held for over 40 years by our party... The consequence will be shattering if Mass. doe's not protect the seat that Teddy held for so many years.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
proud patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
38. Excellent News ... Everybody needs to vote !
:woohoo:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SKKY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
39. Something tells me that this won't work out in favor of Coakley...
...I think we may have taught the Tea Party something about voter mobilization.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
quiller4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 04:41 PM
Response to Reply #39
41. All of the polling done so far shows Coakley doing better with
likely voters than very likely voters (the 6s throgh 10s instead of just the 9s and 10s on a 1-10 scale)and even in the PPP poll where Brown leads among very likely voters, Coakley leads when the the universe is all voters.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SKKY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #41
45. I hope you're right...
...because I don't know if people have a full sense of just how important this race really is. Passing any meaningful health care reform depends on this.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Betty Karlson Donating Member (902 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #45
48. That, and any other important legislation.
The GOP is still the party of NO, after all. No matter what the subject.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
44. If that's the case, it may turn out to be a much louder wake up call
for the party than anyone anticipated.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
glitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-17-10 07:54 PM
Response to Original message
49. Traditionally higher turnout means a Dem win.
Let's hope tradition holds true.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Fri Jul 25th 2014, 04:07 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » General Discussion: Presidency Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC