Economic Woes Threaten Chavez's Socialist Vision

[naaman fletcher]

Venezuela's economy is in trouble despite the country's huge oil reserves. Blackouts plague major cities. Its inflation rate is among the world's highest. Private enterprise has been so hammered, the World Bank says, that Venezuela is forced to import almost everything it needs.

Take, for instance, the Three M metal works, tucked into an industrial zone in San Cristobal, the capital of Tachira state in western Venezuela.

On a recent day, big machinery stamps out sheet metal. For a moment, things seem normal in the plant. But more often than not these days, the contraptions are dead quiet — shut down.

"Just like us, everyone is suffering," says manager Marta Medina. She reels off a list of problems the company faces: lack of spare parts, power shortages and falling orders.

The workforce is down to just eight, from more than 50 people employed a year ago.

Jose Guerra, a former Central Bank economist, says state intervention in private businesses is hitting the economy hard.

"The government is nationalizing, expropriating, or confiscating," he says. "They are not creating new wealth; this is wealth that was already created."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126668465

[Peace Patriot]

1. "Economic woes threaten U.S. capitalist vision"

Funny how we never see that headline in the corpo-fascist press.

(And, yes, NPR is a corpo-fascist shit-stool for the kultchid.)

[Flatulo]

2. But economic woes are not threatening the U.S. capitalist vision.

Alternating economic booms and busts are inevitable in a system where there is always a mismatch between supply and demand.

Yeah, we need a tune-up. Some bankers and hedge-fund managers need to go to jail.

But American capitalism is the engine of the world.

[Peace Patriot]

10. "Yeah, we need a tune-up..."???

:rofl:

Schwarzenegger is making vast cuts to education, and is now cutting home care for the elderly and medical care for poor children, in California. And the other day some Pentagon mogul said that the Defense budget should be cut by cutting health care to soldiers! And hardly a day goes by when some corporation doesn't announce more job cuts and more outsourcing. Cuts everywhere you look for the very things that will make recovery possible--education and public works and social programs that help take burdens off a working families.

Some tune-up. More like a TUNE-OUT.

How 'bout some more Reaganism, Bushitism and Milton Friedmanism, huh?

Maybe that 'ol "tune up" will "trickle down" some home care for the elderly and health care for poor children, and jobs and futures for the poor and the middle class--like it is doing now.

THIS is the true face of "American capitalism"--i.e., the "engine" that makes rich investors, banksters, war profiteers, multinational corporations, vast monopolies and conglomerates and the four hundred richest families in America SUPER-RICH, and leaves the rest of us with NOTHING. Predatory capitalism. We haven't had a truly "free market" for some time now--back to the Reagan era at least. Capitalism that EATS UP small businesses. Capitalism that outsources jobs to the cheapest labor markets that it can find, where workers have no rights, and who control our government and write the rules for enslaving workers everywhere. Capitalist vultures who control the media AND the voting machine 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY vote counting code. Capitalist dogs who enforce their 'dog eat dog' bullshit on the rest of us. Capitalism that no longer serves the public good.

"American capitalism" is one thing. THIS is something else. And it's name is TYRANNY.

A "tune-up" for a country that is trillions of dollars in debt--all those trillions of dollars now in the pockets of the super-rich, here and abroad, to be paid for by poor Americans unto the 7th generation?

A "TUNE-UP"???

I admire Chavez in Venezuela, Morales in Bolivia, Correa in Ecuador, the Kirchners in Argentina and others--including, to some extent, Lula da Silva in Brazil--for experimenting to find a better balance between the POTENTIAL creativity of capitalism and the humane and socialist notion of bootstrapping the poor majority--with education, health care, help to small business, support for small farmers and citizen participation by the poor majority in a country's decision-making. We need to follow their lead in experimenting with programs to create a just and prosperous society once again. Reaganism, Bushitism and Milton Friedmanism have created THIS--the biggest economic mess we have ever been in, bar none. They did it to ENRICH THE SUPER-RICH and to maintain their untoward, anti-democratic power in our society. And, frankly, I don't think it will be possible to remedy the COLOSSAL DISASTER they have inflicted on the rest of us until we peal back their latest mechanism of control--non-transparent vote counting. Venezuela has a transparent vote counting system--and internationally certified fair and honest elections. Why don't we? Think about THAT.

I don't see even a "tune-up" happening. I see on-going, massive looting by foreign and domestic corporations and the very rich--and increasing poverty and powerlessness for the majority of Americans, who are bearing the burden of this massive vacuuming of our wealth into the pockets of those who have nothing but contempt for those who create the wealth--workers, inventors, engineers, parents, teachers and other public servants--nurses, emergency workers--who hold society together. WHAT "tune-up"? All of these people who create wealth and hold society together continue to be shafted. U.S. manufacturing will NEVER recover until we regain the power, as a people, to PUNISH the outsourcers and tax scofflaws and looters and brigands who have been DESTROYING U.S. manufacturing. U.S. creativity and enterprise will NEVER recover until we recover the vast wealth that has been stolen and put that wealth to work in education and bootstrapping and help to SMALL business (the biggest employer in the country!). And the U.S. will NEVER be solvent again until and unless we regain democratic, public control of the foul war profiteering corporations who are running the Pentagon.

A "tune-up"--whatever you mean by that--it's very vague--will not do. We have FUNDAMENTAL problems on unfairness and lack of democratic decision-making that must be addressed. We need a political revolution such as is occurring in Latin America. They, too, had vast inequity and oppression to recover from. That is precisely why the "tune-up" governments--the "free trade for the rich" crowd--in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina, Brazil and other countries were ousted. The "tune-ups" enriched the already rich and powerful and made more poverty at the bottom! That is what is happening here NOW and no "tune-up" government, such as Obama's, is going to change that. We need an FDR--a revolutionary 'New Deal' RE-ORDERING of society, to put the sovereignty of the people back on top and to severely curtail the oppression and unconscionable greed of the domestic and foreign super-rich--and, believe me, ES&S will not permit any such leader into the White House nor any such leaders into Congress (except as tokens). That is the situation. We are now a "third world" country--just like the Latin American countries have been for decades. And no "tune-up" is going to benefit most of us or our country.

[Flatulo]

11. America is not going to remake itself to your ideals.

This country is about one thing - money. Very few people give a flying fuck about the poor and underpriveliged. Even fewer people give a flying fuck about fundamental problems of unfairness. Unfairness is built into our economic system. There will always be uber-rich and uber poor in America. There has always been, and there always will be. The spresad is getting even bigger, and will probably continue to do so.

People used to immigrate to this country knowing full well that they might end up starving in the street. They took the risk and came here anyway. They fucked other risk-takers and spawned still more risk-takers. This is our heritage, our national identity. Some win big, some lose big. You roll the dice and take a chance. Brains and ambition can play a large role, but luck is also a factor. Either way, it is not fair, and no one ever promised it would be. America is the biggest gamble ever devised by man.

This is absolutely not the place to be if you want a guarantee of health care, food and housing. You're nearly completely on your own here.

If you want a guarantee that everyone will have nearly the same standard of living, and the same access to health care, and the same right to an early retirement that won't be in abject poverty, you need to go to Denmark or Sweden.

In the meantime, you can rant about the unfairness of it all, but you are wasting your breath. If you are not any good at making money, you will be miserable here.

If, as you say, all the elections are rigged (a conspiracy that I do not subscribe to), then give up, because all is lost.

[Flatulo]

12. Excellent rant, but it doesn't change my premise. Economic woes

are not threatening Americsan capitalism.

This may not be the kind of society in which you want to live, but capitalism is doing very nicely here, thank you very much.

[protocol rv]

13. Dude, you got to be realistic

Let me quote then comment:

"in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina, Brazil and other countries were ousted"

In Venezuela, the economy is doing terrible, and the leftist PSUV (aka communists) is led by a President who lacks the majority's support.
In Bolivia, I won't say much, but it's a small country, landlocked, and matters very little, they are in the end subject to Brazilian power.
In Ecuador, Correa is not supported by the majority, the economy is dong poorly, and it's likely he will be replaced by somebody who doesn't follow his line.
In Argentina, the Kirchner-Fernandez era, known for its corruption and mismanagement, is nearly at an end.
In Brazil, Lula has done a great job, but his party's candidate is behind in the presidential polls.

So you see, this "left wing revolution" you like to claim is no such thing. A lot of it was a flash in the pan fueled by Venezuela oil money, which is now disappearing as the Venezuelan economy melts down. So what are you left with? An ancient communist oligarchy ruling Cuba, soon to be replaced, chaos in Nicaragua where Noriega is trying to perpetuate himself in power in violation of their Constitution, and Manuel Zelaya whining he wants to be Honduras' president, as if he had a chance. Big deal.

[protocol rv]

6. Venezuela's inflation rate exceeds 30 % per year

And GDP is dropping. This is called "stagflation". If the US had such inflation combined with such drop in GDP, the people would be rioting. We Venezuelans are much more patient, we'll wait for the elections in September and vote them out of office ;-)

[protocol rv]

9. Venezuela's Economic Woes are a lot more serious

Don't forget, the good news you quote came from the years from 2003 to 2008, when there was a huge run up in oil prices and the country was recovering from the national oil strike which took place in late 2002 and early 2003. It's easy to show economic growth in Venezuela when the country's economy was shocked by a national strike, and prices triple-quadruple in a five year period. But today the oil prices are fairly steady at around $75 per barrel, and yet the economy in Venezuela is hurting terribly.

Remember how Chavez said that, thanks to "socialism of the 21st century" Venezuela would be shielded from the "crisis of capitalism"? As it turns out, the crisis of capitalism is being handled by other nations fairly well, the nations which are still at risk are the ones which failed to react properly, or even faked their numbers (Greece being an excellent example). But today, broadly speaking, nations which suffer are the ones which belong to ALBA and are members of the "socialist club", that is Venezuela, Ecuador, and Cuba. Bolivia has escaped some of this malaise because Evo has shrewdly avoided the mass nationalizations Chavez has been carrying out. Even his "nationalization" of the oil industry was fake, as has been shown by the continued operations of large multinationals such as Repsol.

So where does this leave you now? We do get a little tired of the "corpo fascist" press tirades. The truth is the nations which follow a more nuanced form of socialism (Brazil, Peru being an excellent example), or are capitalist controlled (Colombia, Panama), have economic growth, while Venezuela and Ecuador, the two leaders in the ALBA block, look like they need CPR. As for Cuba, it's just the parasite it has always been when it could. With Venezuela's economy falling, all we read is Castro's warning about how they have to get used to poverty. Maybe it's time for them to pull out their Cat Cookbooks again.

[Flatulo]

3. I think it might be more fair to look at Chavez' Venezuela in the context

of other petroleum-rich nations. After all, they sit on resources that are not quite the same as machine tools, heavy equipment and aircraft (the major exports of the USA, the purchase of which is highly responsive to supply and demand). Petroleum is absolutely indispensible to modern life. People will pay anyprice for it. People will go to war for it.

I find it hard to believe that any petroleum-rich state could be suffering unless there is gross mismanagement of the economy.

Is Venezuela really hurting? Does anyone have any fair comparisons to other petroleum-exporting states?

[protocol rv]

4. Venezuela economic markers vs other oil producers'

Norway:

GDP UP in 2010:

The revised budget is based on an average 2010 oil price forecast of 475 crowns per barrel, up from 425 crowns in the government's October view. It forecasts a 4.5 percent fall in oil output to 2.2 million barrels a day and an increase in sales of natural gas to 105 billion cubic metres this year. It keeps the 2010 non-oil GDP growth forecast of 2.1 percent and cuts the average annual core inflation view to 1.3 percent from a previous 1.5 percent.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7886246&subject=markets&action=article
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Colombia (produces oil but is not OPEC):

GDP up in 2010:

The steady revaluation of the Colombian peso against the US dollar saw the central bank make two announcements - about GDP growth of 3% by the end of 2010 and the lowering of the interbank credit rate to 3%. That and an optimistic presidential race have helped the automotive market grow 15.4% year to date.

http://www.just-auto.com/article.aspx?id=104394
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Middle East and North Africa, Oil producers as well as importers:

GDP up in 2010:

Considering these and other factors, GDP in the Middle East and North Africa is projected to grow at 4½ percent in 2010, edging up to 4¾ percent in 2011. As in other regions, recovery prospects vary substantially across MENA economies.
• In the group of oil exporters, the strongest performer is Qatar, where real activity is projected to expand by 18½ percent in 2010, underpinned by continued expansion in natural gas production and large investment expenditures. In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, GDP is expected to grow at about 3¾ percent and 3 percent, respectively, this year supported in both cases by sizable government infrastructure investment. In the United Arab Emirates, growth in 2010 is projected to be subdued at 1¼ percent, with property-related sectors expected to contract further.
• In the group of oil importers, Egypt’s GDP is projected to grow 5 percent in 2010 and 5½ percent in 2011, helped by stimulative fiscal and monetary policies. Morocco and Tunisia will continue to grow at rates of 3¼ to 4 percent in 2010 and 4½ to 5 percent in 2011, assuming exports, tourism, remittances, and foreign direct investment continue to improve. There is substantial uncertainty about this outlook, with two key risks on the downside.

http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/201004225607/Economics/imf-mena-region-recovering-with-45-growth-in-2010.html

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Russia, world's largest oil producer:

GDP up in 2010:

The International Monetary Fund forecasts Russia’s GDP to grow 4% in 2010 and around 3.3% in 2011 if inflation runs at 7% and 5.7%, respectively, IMF resident representative in Europe Odd Per Brekk told reporters Tuesday.

http://www.cbonds.info/all/eng/news/index.phtml/params/id/461087

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Angola, African oil producer:

GDP up in 2010:


IMF projects strong growth in Angola and acceleration in other Portuguese-speaking countries < 2010-04-22 >


Washington, United States, 22 April – the Angolan economy is expected to see a string recovery this year with growth of 7.1 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook. The IMF projects that Angola’s gross domestic product (GDP), after a fall of 0.4 percent in 2009, will post growth of 7.1 percent this year and 8.3 percent in 2011.

http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/news.php?ID=9300

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Nigeria, another African oil producer

GDP up in 2010

On the economic front, we see real GDP growth at 7.5% in 2010, with agriculture as well as wholesale and retail trade remaining the major drivers of the expansion. Although we expect the oil economy to register a modest increase in output in 2010, restoring the flow of credit to the real economy will be an equally important step in unlocking Nigeria's full growth potential. On this point, we could imagine growth reaching the double digits over the coming years if problems within the banking and oil sectors are brought to resolution.

http://www.officialwire.com/main.php?action=posted_news&rid=143792

0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

I can't find a single major oil producer with a poor economy, other than Venezuela. Latest forecasts by the Economist intelligence unit is a drop in GDP of 3 %, and this may be revised as the full impact of the electricity and forex crisis is felt.

[Flatulo]

7. Thanks for looking that up. I suspected as much. It takes a

truly staggering level of incompetence to fuck up an oil-producing economy.

I find it remarkable but unsurprising that the commies here never fail to resort to the old schtick of 'traitors, saboteurs, Yanqis and weather' to explain away the complete and utter incompetence of <insert leftist darling of the moment here>.

My best wished go out to the people of Venezueala. Good luck getting rid of this regime - I suspect they will not go out peacfully. Got to protect la revolucion from traitors, and all that.

[Bacchus39]

5. Ecuador Nigeria Angola not exactly wealthy nations

Nigeria and Angola are OPEC nations.

[protocol rv]

8. Reasons why

Ecuador is a Latin American country. By culture and tradition, we in Latin American know how to screw things up, so we manage to stay poor.

Nigeria is a fake country created by the British, it's corrupt, has many civil conflicts, and a huge population, so the oil only helps screw them up even worse.

Angola went through a huge civil war, in which Cubans, South Africans, East Germans, and Angolans fought back and forth. Today it is semi-recovered from the war. The government, which in the past was backed by the Soviet empire, has invited foreign multinationals to work offshore, and it is increasing oil production and has a very healthy economic growth rate. The new capitalist approach does help some. But it will remain poor if it doesn't diversify its economy.