Brazil's Serra widens lead in October race-poll

[Meshuga]

BRASILIA, April 17 (Reuters) - Brazil's main opposition candidate, Jose Serra, gained voter support in the October presidential race, widening his lead over the ruling Workers' Party's Dilma Rousseff, an opinion poll showed on Saturday.

Serra gained 2 percentage points to 38 percent of voter intention compared with the same poll a month ago, according to the survey published in the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper.

Rousseff, who stepped down as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's chief of staff nearly three weeks ago, gained 1 point to 28 percent.

It is the first poll since Serra launched his campaign a week ago, representing the three main opposition parties, including his own centrist PSDB.

The Serra camp will likely celebrate the results after an opinion survey by polling firm Sensus this week had shown Dilma moving into a virtual tie with the better-known Serra, who stepped down as Sao Paulo state governor this month in line with electoral law.

Former environment minister Marina Silva of the Green Party jumped 2 points to 10 percent of voter intention and former Ceara state Governor Ciro Gomes lost 2 points, falling into last place with 9 percent, the Datafolha poll showed...

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1715462820100417

[Peace Patriot]

1. Well, I was inclined to be depressed by this, based on the article title, but...

...the content of the article reveals a rather different picture--the leftist has moved up, and is in a tie with the (not centrist) rightist, in another poll, and the candidate to the left of her (Green Party) gained points. Brazil has a run-off system, I believe. The rightist (Serra) has to win 51% in the first round, to become president--or faces a runoff with the leftist--Worker Party candidate Dilma Roussef--Lula da Silva's successor. The Green Party will likely endorse Roussef in a run-off. And Lula da Silva is SO popular--something like an 80% approval rating--that, if he campaigns vigorously for his successor, she will likely win. A similar situation in Chile--an outgoing, term-limited, leftist president, Michele Batchelet, with an 80% approval rating--did not work out that way. A rightwing billionaire won the recent presidential election and Batchelet's successor lost. But I think Brazil will be a different story. Someone here advised that the socialist loss in Chile might not be a bad thing. It will prompt a clean-out of the more corporatist socialists and bring in new blood, and they will take the next election. Possibly this is what is developing in Brazil--that is, the left is too dependent on Lula da Silva's personal popularity and needs a re-invigoration of the grass roots--new faces, new ideas and a more socialist approach to development. But the two countries are not all that comparable in other ways. For instance, Chile is much more U.S.-dependent than Brazil is. And Brazil is much bigger, with a much bigger--indeed, a vast--poor population, who need continued "bootstrapping." Da Silva imposed Venezuela-like conditions on development of Brazil's new oil find--Brazilian government majority control of the oil projects, and use of a large percentage of the profits to benefit the poor. The poor majority will want policies like that to continue.

Rotters is as bad as the Associated Pukes for pushing CIA psyops/disinformation/propaganda, i.e., coordinating their headlines with whatever the CIA goals are. We can be sure that BILLIONS of our tax dollars are being spent, through USAID and covert programs, to influence these elections. And what these corpo-fascist 'news' monopolies do is help write the script. We also don't know how reliable this poll is. False polls have been used--paid for by you and me--to influence Latin American elections and even to aid in destabilizing countries and coordinating with coup plots (as in Venezuela). I should mention that I read somewhere recently that Diebold has invaded Brazil. That is another factor in corpo-fascist 'news' monopolies "writing the script." So take it for what it is worth. Rotters has been extremely biased and unreliable about the Latin American Left.

[Meshuga]

2. Why would this poll make you inclined to be depressed in the first place?

What makes Serra a rightist and not even a centrist? Can you explain that?

There are many things I disagree with Serra but I would not classify him as a rightist. If Serra wins he will follow the same path as Lula and the path of FHC before Lula. The same goes for Dilma Rouseff.

Brazilian politics are not so simple as you may think. The coalitions for candidacies are diverse so the lines are hard to draw.

And the difference between the choice of Serra and Dilma are not much in terms of policy.

The only candidate who deviates is Marina da Silva who left PT for the Green Party because of disagreements with Dilma herself.

[protocol rv]

3. OK, Patriot, here's the version you like

BRASILIA, April 17 (Rotters) - Brazil's main opposition candidate, Jose Serra, seems headed for defeat in the October presidential race, an opinion poll showed on Saturday.

Rousseff, who stepped down as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's chief of staff nearly three weeks ago, gained 1 point to 28 percent. Former environment minister Marina Silva of the Green Party jumped 2 points to 10 percent of voter intention and former Ceara state Governor Ciro Gomes lost 2 points, falling into last place with 9 percent.

Because Serra barely managed to gain 2 percentage points to 38 percent of voter intention compared with the same poll a month ago, pundits from Northern California are predicting a sure win for Rousseff in a runoff. The calculus is that Marina Silva's supporters will throw in with Rousseff during the runoff, giving her 38 %. Since the left wing candidate is supported by Lula da Silva, it's evident she's likely to get more votes, giving her the victory.

The Serra camp nearly folded their campaign after an opinion survey by polling firm Sensus this week had shown Dilma moving into a virtual tie with the better-known Serra, who stepped down as Sao Paulo state governor this month in line with electoral law. These results are sure to shake them up badly, and Serra may lose his temper, go home and beat his wife and his dog, thus giving the media a feast as they drive him down into the single digits in forthcoming polls.

Dilma Rousseff, given the certainty of her victory, decided to take the week off from campaigning and tour Latin America, with visits to Buenos Aires to hear from Cristina Fernandez about sovereign bond issues, Caracas, where she's going to learn how to regain Brazil's sovereignity over their oil fields from Rafael Ramirez, and Havana, where she's going to meet with Fidel Castro to understand why Brazil's biofuel industry means genocide.

Brazilians, upon hearing the news, celebrated with huge conga lines while shouting "Fatherland, Socialism, or Death! We shall win!".

[protocol rv]

4. Come on, Patriot, tell me you liked it

I wrote this piece just for you. And if you say you like it, I'll write one about the Chevron legal problems in Ecuador you'll just love. And I won't even use the word indian. I'll use a suitable politically correct wording.

[naaman fletcher]

5. awesome. lol. nt.