From today's Iowa independent

[gateley]

Overall, Hillary Clinton leads with 28.9 percent, followed by Barack Obama with 26.6 percent, John Edwards with 20 percent, Bill Richardson with 7.2 percent and Joe Biden with 5.3 percent.
The study shows that Clinton's strength in the poll comes from her support among women, 33 percent for Clinton compared to 26.5 for Obama and 16.8 percent for Edwards. The poll shows the order reverses with men, where Obama leads 26.7 percent to Edwards at 25 percent and Clinton at 22.5 percent.

Among Democrats polled, 39.6 percent say they are not at all likely to change their minds on who to support, up from 33.6 percent in August. While 57.5 percent of Democrats now say they are somewhat or very likely to change their mind, this is down from 65.2 percent in August, indicating that while the race remains fluid, Democratic caucus-goers are now beginning to settle on their choices. Only 7.9 percent say they are very likely to change.

*********************

and this:


Iowa Democrats Will Caucus Jan. 3
Posted: 28 Oct 2007 10:51 PM CDT
The date is official, as Iowa's Democratic State Central Committee voted 32-7 on Sunday night to set Thursday, Jan. 3 as caucus night.
The Biden campaign was the first to release a statement after the vote was announced, with Iowa spokesperson Danny O'Brien offering: "(Biden's) commitment to the Iowa caucuses has only grown stronger as Democrats across the state have demonstrated their seriousness in electing a candidate who can win the 2008 general election. Sen. Biden looks forward to a strong showing in the January 3 caucuses that will propel him toward the Democratic nomination." Other campaigns also commented on the decision when it was first rumored last week, and generally their reactions were calm.


I got this in an e-mail but if you're interested, www.iowaindependent.com

[lyonn]

1. Well Hell - I thought Biden would out poll Richardson

What's up with that? Just saw the 04 polls on CNN and it showed that Edwards was way down in the polls then came in second in caucus. Sure not giving up on Biden as he has a way with the average person. He no way acts like he is running Waaaay back. He has a msg. and he is damn good at putting it to the people. Take it or leave it, no sniveling from Biden.

[gateley]

2. I thought Biden would do better than Richardson, too. It wasn't too long

ago when Richardson supporters were singing the same tune we are -- why isn't he getting more coverage and support? So I wonder when the turning point was for RIchardson and what it is that did the trick. I honestly can't think of any one thing.

Now it's happening with Dodd because he's getting more coverage as a result of his promise to filibuster FISA and people are getting a chance to hear and see him. He's a good guy.

But man, what does Biden have to do to get the same recognition??

[Debi]

3. Don't give too much credence to this poll

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/29/romney_way_ahead_in_iowa_democratic_race_close.html

However, Mark Blumenthal cautions readers on the survey's methodology, noting "they asked an open-ended vote question (that asks respondents to volunteer their choice without prompting), they sampled from a directory of listed telephone households (rather than from registered voter lists or via random digit dial or voting list) and used a screen that was wider than other polls."


+++++++++++++

U of I Polls have been traditionally P-O-O-R and unreliable. Sen. Clinton is polling high b/c of name ID of the average Iowan, those who were polled weren't necessarily those who will be attending the caucuses. I do think Biden is doing better than what this poll shows just by LTTEs and the amount of attendees at his events (and the events hosted by his family members).

[gateley]

4. Thanks for that, Debi - it's comforting. I assumed (will I ever learn?) that the IA

polls were perhaps more valid and accurate than many others because the IA voters are so savvy and informed. :)

I keep swearing off ALL poll results, but find I can't help but check it out when I see one! :banghead: