Hi to all in the Biden group.

[saltpoint]

I just predicted that Joe Biden will be our next president.

Here's the DU link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3495470&mesg_id=3495470

Note that I am a distinct minority in the thread!

I'm a John Edwards voter and local volunteer and want him to succeed, but if he should falter in Iowa I'm like as not to jump to Joe Biden, a very, very strong second favorite.

Ok. That's it for now. Happy Labor Day to all.

[jillan]

1. Welcome OC! Now why do you think that Biden would be our

next Prez?

If he doesn't do well in Iowa, that's it for him :(
Both him and Edwards put their all into Iowa.

Remind me to move to Iowa before the next election.

How nice of you to stop in:yourock:

[saltpoint]

2. Hi, pirhana, and a Great Labor Day Weekend to you.

Well, I don't have any clinical evidence and even less a crystal ball.

But I think there will be some major changes in the Democratic field fairly soon.

I think one of them is going to be Senator Clinton. Either she increases her lead and scares Gore off or her numbers flag a bit as the intensity of the fall campaign kicks in, and he see it as his opportunity and jumps in.

I think he takes her support away almost overnight.

If Governor Richardson does not win in Nevada, I don't think he continues in the race. He would remain extremely high on our candidates' veep shortlist, though.

I think Clark stays out, vying for the veep slot.

I think Edwards has to win in Iowa or the rationale for him to appeal to Democratic voters elsewhere is seriously weakened.

Obama is poised to rise again if Senator Clinton is slowed up, or Obama steps aside if Gore gets in.

Dodd, the same. He's made his point, which is, "I'm available for that Commerce post..." -- and he'd be damned good at it.

Which leaves Joe Biden. If Gore is in, Biden will be as eclipsed as Edwards, Dodd, etc. If Gore stays out, Biden will contend for the lead. He'd have to place second, defeating either Edwards or Obama in Iowa. If he does, he'll win in New Hampshire. I have no idea in hell who wins in South Carolina. Clinton? Gore? Obama? Beats me. But as the primaries are clustered together, Biden can compete in all of them, and roll out of February into March with say a third of the nominating delegates. Not enough for a first ballot win, but enough to deny anyone ELSE a first-ballot win.

Denver could be a real interesting convention year from now.

Gravel is marginal. Kucinich is not breaking that 3% mark -- not a sustaining base of support. Richardson's up but not quite viable. Dodd is running a perfunctory campaign, geared for a Cabinet post. These four men aren't going to be the nominee.

If Gore gets in, Clinton's support is decimated. He becomes at once the social reformer and the establishmentarian candidate. Edwards and Obama will have to survive by their wits. Gore is going to be a juggernaut.

If Gore stays out, and Clinton's support wanes, Biden's candidacy is suddenly extraordinarily viable, and made more so if the "surge" Bush is pushing continues to fail. Edwards Biden Obama -- those three are left in hot contention if Gore doesn't get in, and of the three, I think Biden is the best position (owing to foreign policy) to win the nomination.

Rant over. Thank you for the warm welcome.

Have a good week.

[jillan]

3. Interesting!

At this moment in time, I can't imagine who Biden would be able to
push out of the top tier in Iowa. I know who I would like to see drop down:eyes:
It's not Edwards. He is the favorite in Iowa, plus he picked up
almost all of the Labor endorsements.

Do you really think Gore is still thinking about getting into the race?
I have given up on him.

Hope you had a great weekend!

[PatSeg]

5. This is fascinating

And it all makes much more sense than the crap the media pundits come up with.

I think the upcoming year will be full of surprises.

Thanks for sharing you insights with us!!!

[PatSeg]

4. Hi!!! We were hoping you'd drop by

[saltpoint]

8. Hi, tsegat01.

:thumbsup: :dem:

[murbley40]

6. Hi, nice to see you here.

[saltpoint]

7. Hey murbley40.

:hi: :dem:

[jillan]

9. kick