CNN has a nice timeline of what happened fifteen years ago during Clinton's budget battle with a GOP Congress.
http://www.cnn.com/US/9512/budget/budget_battle/index.htmlHere's a summary:
To set the stage, Clinton was in a weaker position than Obama is now--the Congress was firmly Republican, not firmly Democratic (even if lame duck). The Democratic losses in the 1994 elections were more of a personal rebuke, without a weak economy to blame.
November 14, 1995: The federal government
partially shuts down after Clinton vetoes a GOP spending bill. In a speech, Clinton said "They sent me legislation that said -- we will only keep the government going, and we will only let it pay its debts if and only if we accept their cuts in Medicare, their cuts in education, their cuts in the environment, and their repeal of 25 years of bipartisan commitments to protect the environment and public health.
On behalf of the American people, I said no. If America has to close down access to education, to a clean environment, to affordable health care, to keep our government open, then the price is too high."November 16: Gingrich makes his infamous comments about seating on Air Force One. Democrats pounce.
November 19: The government reopens, with funding through December 15, after Clinton and the Republicans agree in principle to a balanced budget within seven years. Both sides claim victory, but public opinion blames the Republicans. Press secretary McCurry jabs at the GOP: "The president instructed his staff not to make too much of the polls that show us doing very well." New negotiations get bogged down.
December 7: Clinton
vetoes GOP budget plan, describing it as
"extreme Republican efforts to balance the budget through wrongheaded cuts". He proposes his own budget, instead.
December 16: After a week or so of sometimes productive negotiation, another impasse is reached and
the government shuts down again.December 20: Clinton, Dole, and Gingrich have started personal negotiations. House Republicans prevent an attempt to pass a short continuing resolution to reopen the government.
"The most extreme members of the House of Representatives rejected that agreement," Clinton said. "A lot of them will be very happy about this because they don't feel we ought to have a government up here anyway."January 1, 1996: The new year arrives, along with Day 17 of the second government shutdown.
January 6: The federal government reopens after Clinton agrees to submit a seven-year balanced budget plan as scored by the CBO.
January 14: Republicans acknowledge they will stop using government shutdowns or the federal debt ceiling as negotiating tools.
January 24: Republicans give ground in negotiations. CNN reported at the time, "Gingrich and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole proposed a modest partial budget agreement that cuts the deficit but doesn't erase it entirely. Clinton had suggested a similar compromise in the past, but the GOP then rejected the idea.
'Barring a dramatic change of heart on President Clinton's part, I don't expect us to get a seven-year balanced budget while President Clinton is in office,' Gingrich told reporters."
After this, the conflict diminished to a whimper.
What would have happened had Clinton given up earlier? The Republicans would have pushed through severe cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, and other programs. Their extreme anti-government philosophy would have triumphed, and Clinton seriously weakened. The Republicans almost certainly would have sensed this and pushed for even more over the next year. It's also important to note that congressional Democrats for the most part held firm as well, refusing to panic. By winning the confrontation, Clinton made himself much stronger politically and reshaped the dynamics after the crushing losses in 1994, eventually cruising to an easy win in 1996.
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