what are the chances of an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula??

[FLAprogressive]

This buildup has been scaring me....it seems like we're on the brink of re-igniting the technically ongoing Korean War. :scared:

[EmilyKent]

1. Zip to nil.

Or less.

[cleanhippie]

15. Why do you say that?

[NuclearDem]

2. As long as cooler heads prevail

Or China, Russia, SK, and the US are able to tell NK to back off (again), then no.

Escalation around Korea is nothing new; and NK has been aggressive against SK and the US to the point of shelling islands, sinking warships, and shooting down aircraft, but none of those incidents have led to an all-out war yet, and I doubt they will this time.

[HEyHEY]

3. Very, very real that there will be more fighting - and all out war? I don't know

It may just end up being a week of fighting and artillery exchange. I don't know if either side will fully invade.

[Poll_Blind]

4. I think really really really really low. REALLY REALLY low.

But if there is war, it'll be one to remember and have all sorts of fucked up ramifications.

Still...I think the chances of "all-out" war are minuscule. At least at this time.

PB

[Warpy]

5. I think China has the most to lose at this point

unless they pressure us though a targeted trade embargo, which would be an almost ideal situation although uncomfortable in the short term.

I sincerely doubt China is motivated to give us the push we need to restart domestic industry at this point.

[Ozymanithrax]

6. What do you mean b all out war?

The North hasn't got enough food to fight a war.

The North could level Soul in an hour, and in that same hour kill most of the 28,500 American military stationed there.

But if the North Korean Air Force gets in the air, or the U.S. gets bombers in there (conventional bombs), the artillery threat will be ended, and the north will be shattered, pretty much left to starve.

However, with the probability that the South would take and hold the North, China would likely invade because they do not want a Western style Democracy beholden to the U.S. on their border. It would then come down to some form of limited war between the U.S. and China.

And China, with massive amounts of U.S. debt in their vaults, would likely collapse the dollar and shatter our economy. It would hurt them, but hurt us much more.

[Puzzler]

8. If China took over (invaded) North Korea ...

... and assuming there would be no repercussions from the West, then it would probably be to everyone's advantage, including the North Korean population.

I sometimes think the best solution to the whole problem is to give silent approval for China to invade. China might not be a bed of roses, but annexation by the Chinese would probably improve the lives of the very oppressed North Korean population.

[dimbear]

13. Agreed, but China only invades

harmless places like Tibet. Strange attitude for a superpower.

[Ozymanithrax]

14. China invaded Korea during the Korean war...

in support of the North Koreans, because they could not accept a State beholden to the U.S. on their border. They invaded after the U.S. and allies all but took all of North Korea. China fought back to the point where the current DMZ markers the cease fire line.

They do invade real countries and fight real wars. With the Soviets flying air support and Chines Peoples army fighting the ground war, they pushed the Western forces in China right back to the current line.

At this time, they are a highly advanced, very modern, and formidable military opponent. Add to that, that they own enough U.S. dollars and debt to destory the dollar and crushour economy like a bug.

[MilesColtrane]

12. I'm not so sure about conventional ROK/US bombing being able to take out...

the DPRK artillery threat.

Those suckers are dug in deep.

They might be able to do enough damage run interference long enough to evacuate a significant amount of people out of range, but if the North opened up it would still be a bloodbath.

[Swamp Rat]

7. I am MUCH more worried about oil in my seafood and lying, thieving politicians.

[Kaleva]

9. This shit has been going on for decades.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. This is more serious than the yearly rise and fall

In tensions.

[kestrel91316]

10. slim

[Catherina]

11. Watch what happens with the nukes. NK is hopping mad the US may put tactical nukes in SK

They feel quite provoked and China's not amused. I don't think we're suicidal enough to do this given all the wars we're already fighting and the lack of resources to pursue another proxy war against China.

U.S. Tactical Nukes May Return to South Korea

November 22, 2010



If North Korea’s going to flaunt its new uranium-enrichment facility to the world, South Korea isn’t going to sit back and take it. Seoul is considering a request for the U.S. to return tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean peninsula for the first time in 15 years. Remember when President Obama was going to put the world on a “path to zero” nukes?

Over the weekend, a U.S. scientist revealed that North Korea took him on a tour of its new “ultra-modern” uranium-enrichment plant at Yongbyon, ending longstanding doubts about Pyongyang’s home-grown capabilities at turning uranium into nuclear fuel. (Though it’s unclear whether the plant is already enriching uranium.) South Korea’s defense minister quickly cooked up a response, the Korea Herald reports: consider asking the U.S. to bring its nuclear weapons back.

...

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/11/u-s-tactical-nukes-may-return-to-south-korea/

[ShamelessHussy]

17. id say 50/50 right now, from the cheap seats

looks like china is looking for a way out... hopefully we will work with them.