'Iraq's national oil law has been touted as a major step toward the political reconciliation of the country's major sects. The US military "surge" in Baghdad is, in part, designed to provide the sectarian-defined political groups breathing room to pass this and other measures that would give every group a greater stake in the political and economic future of a unified Iraq. Yet as negotiations over the oil law drag on, and grow increasingly bitter, such reconciliation seems less and less likely.
It now appears impossible for the Iraqi Parliament to pass the national oil law by the government-imposed deadline of May 31. The immediate cost of this failure will be economic - while many of the Western majors will not invest in Iraq because of the remaining security risks, Eastern and smaller oil firms appear willing if the political risks are first removed through legislation.
However, the long-term damage done by the failure to reach a consensus on the oil law will be a hardening of the sectarian fractures in Iraq's political landscape. The debates surrounding the oil law do not center on what is best for the country as a whole, but only on what is best for each sectarian group. By defining the debate as yet another zero-sum competition, Iraq's politicians have made it impossible to emerge from the negotiations without at least one group feeling like the losers. The US Embassy in Iraq has only encouraged this situation by insisting on a greater role for foreign firms in future investments.
As such, reconciliation will never emerge from the passage of an oil law in Iraq. This darkens the prospects of success for the US military "surge".'
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IE24Ak04.html
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