Republicans lose ground for second straight day in early voting, maintain turnout percentage edge

[cal04]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2010/oct/30/republicans-lose-ground-second-straight-day-early-/

Republicans lost ground to the Democrats in the urban counties on the largest and last day of early voting Friday, surely giving Democrats hope that a surge to blunt the GOP momentum could carry over into Election Day.

The GOP still maintained a lead relative to registration in urban Nevada, but Democrats kept it to under 4 percent. When the rural data is in, as well as Washoe absentees, the statewide turnout advantage for the GOP is expected to be closer to 3 percent. In 2006, after Election Day, the GOP had a 6 percent turnout advantage, but the Democrats did not have a 5 percent edge in statewide registration, as they do now. And upwards of 65 percent of the overall turnout already has occurred.

The Democrats have nearly a 9 percentage point edge in Clark County (25,000 votes) – that’s almost 4 percentage points under their registration edge. To put this in perspective, in the last competitive race Sen. Harry Reid had -- against John Ensign in 1998 (he won by 400 votes) -- Reid won Clark County by less than 7 percentage points. And Reid lost Washoe County 12 years ago – although by a small margin – and that northern, urban county could be key: Is Sharron Angle holding her home base or is she hemorrhaging Republicans, as some polls have shown? If Reid wins Washoe County, he could blunt large losses in rural Nevada, which will make up 15 to 20 percent of the overall tally. Election Day will be pivotal in Washoe, which usually turns out greater than Clark – the northerners lag behind in early voting but turn out in greater percentage numbers on Election Day. It’s harder to tell this year because the early voting totals are so high, but Washoe turnout Tuesday is going to be pivotal.


Nevada Early Vote: GOP Loses Ground For Second Straight Day
Jon Ralston reports on Nevada early voting:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/live/tpm-midterms-wire/#1074

[Gman]

1. On election day

Republicans pray for rain, Democrats for sunshine. Democrats generally turn out bigger on election day.