DNC Memo: "Republican 'Surge'/'Wave' Has Not Materialized In Early Voting"

[bigtree]

October 27, 2010

To: Interested Parties
From: DNC
Re: Update on Early Voting
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/58492724/DNCearlyVote

Summary

Early voting is underway across the country, and the results to date are not only not consistent with the existence of a Republican enthusiasm gap, they show that in key races Democrats are winning. The Democratic National Committee collects early vote data across the country, and in 11 key early vote states, Democrats have cast more ballots than Republicans.

Some key points:

• We are winning. In key states, such as NV, IA, CA, WI, WA, IL and WV, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early vote. In other states, such as CO, Democrats tend to cast votes later than Republicans (as they did in 2008), and we are confident that margin will close

• The Republican ‘surge’/’wave’ has not materialized in early vote, and it’s not going to. When we look at early vote results by distinct vote history levels (mid-term voters / presidential-year only voters), Democratic early voting is comparable, and often higher, than Republican voting.

• In key congressional districts, Democrats are out-performing in early vote. In many key districts, Democrats are outpacing Republicans both in raw ballots cast and participation rates.

A more accurate ‘enthusiasm benchmark’ is early participation for voters with similar vote history. If Republicans were more enthusiastic in 2010, they would see significantly higher early vote across all levels of vote history than Democrats. Most importantly, sporadic Republicans would consistently out-turnout sporadic Democrats in early voting. This hasn’t materialized in early vote.


full DNC report with charts and figures: http://www.docstoc.com/docs/58492724/DNCearlyVote

[JuniperLea]

1. It's all projection...

They talk about their wave because they see ours coming!

[Dawson Leery]

2. Democrats will win if the following occurs:

Black and Hispanic voters vote in large number
Younger voters vote at a rate higher than their usual 20%
GOP voter intimidation is countered and dealt with promptly
Those votes must properly counted

[Inuca]

3. Please, oh please, make it so... n/t

[yodermon]

4. Shouldn't the DNC sit on this info?

Might it not end up suppressing Dem turnout on election day, if it sounds like "we are winning"?

[bigtree]

7. at this point

. . . I think there's a need to counter the propaganda that's already permeated the airwaves and print about an inevitable republican surge and takeover. That's clearly the theme of the release which is mostly intended to change the narrative in the press. I think voters hearing about fellow Democrats up and running to the polls will be anxious to make their own imprint on this election.

[qazplm]

10. no

that memo doesn't make it sound like we are winning so much as making it sound like we aren't losing as bad as we thought and there is still a chance so get out and vote.

Either it is correct, in which case get out and vote, or we really are losing bad, in which case get out and vote.

I think sitting on that info neither encourages nor scares the dem voting pop to get out and vote.

As for independents, people vote for winners in that group, so the more we look like potential winners the more likely those folks might consider pulling the D lever.

[Life Long Dem]

5. And yet Fox News

had someone in NH saying the Repubs are having a resurgence. What BS!

[rocktivity]

6. It's the Republican surge at the POLLS

that I guess we need to worry about.

:headbang:
rocktivity

[bigtree]

8. that's what this release is addressing

. . . reporting on competitive and winning levels of Democratic participation at the polls.

[oswaldactedalone]

9. Just got back from early voting in NC

The wife and I went to an early voting location in a middle-class black neighborhood as we were on that side of town taking care of some business. There were 15 of 15 machines in use with one person in line when we arrived, and all machines in use with three people in line when we left. Guess you could say the pace was steady.

Aside from us and 7 elderly white folks, all the other voters there were A-As. Not really unexpected given the location. I'd say that could be a good sign of voter enthusiasm but having never voted in that location before I really have no idea.

There are a number of Hispanics who live close by, but saw none while we were there, probably 20 mins total time.

GOTFV people!!!

[bigtree]

11. thanks for the report

" . . . pace was steady." Good sign.

[cilla4progress]

12. 80%

I just read in our local rural (read "red") newspaper that the county elections office is expecting 80% turnout. This must be good news, right?!

(However, for balance and reality check: on the next page, they published a LTTE referring to Pelosi as the devil! Goddess..get me out of here!)

[struggle4progress]

13. gotv

[cilla4progress]

14. more calls tomorrow

hey i like your name