Republicans Expecting Big Wins In Ohio Based On Polls, Prepare To Be Disappointed

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Got this e-mail from my local Progressive Action group today:

GOVERNOR'S RACE VERY TIGHT -- EVERY VOTE WILL COUNT

Political insiders in Ohio are continuing to shake their heads about the trumpeting of Quinnipiac Poll results by our hometown paper (some might say Republican Rag), The Columbus Dispatch. We all remember that the Quinnipiac Poll on October 23, 2008, declared that there was a 14 POINT MARGIN in the Presidential race in Ohio -- a race that was won by the President by 4 points, after the best organized and staffed Democratic GOTV effort in Ohio history. NO ONE with any sense puts any credibility in the Quinnipiac Poll.

Internal campaign polls from trusted and reliable pollsters show Governor Strickland with a lead in a very tight race that will likely be determined by voter turnout on Election Day.

So WHY are the Quinnipiac Poll, The Columbus Dispatch Poll and the Ohio Poll so far off this year? It is because they are "overweighting" Republican turnout versus Democratic turnout. They have bought in to the "enthusiasm gap". They couldn't be further from reality in doing so here in Ohio.

The facts (based on actual data as of October 20, 2010) show that more Democrats than Republicans are voting early. An internal tabulation of all 88 counties shows the following:

More Democrats than Republicans have requested absentee ballots.
More Democrats than Republicans have returned absentee ballots.
More Democrats than Republicans have voted early in person.

The race for Attorney General is similar with Rich Cordray leading in a very tight race. This scenario is repeated down the ticket. Currently, the state party is focused on their "Final Push" program, which is the largest GOTV effort in Ohio's mid-term election history.

[yurbud]

1. that's good news

[Gman]

2. They may be setting up the stolen scenario

to invoke their second amendment solutions, or something.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

3. You May Be Right

This morning, my Bush-can-do-no-wrong father-in-law, the one who never allows his TV to leave Faux News EVER and listens to right-wing hate radio whenever he gets in the car, started trying to bait me into talking about the Governor's race. I, of course, didn't bite (I decided that after 2004, when I would allow him to bait me into political arguments and it ended up causing a huge rift within the family, that I would never again participate in a political "discussion" with him for the good of everyone involved). But his final comment on the situation was something to the effect that he just hoped there wouldn't be any allegations of vote-stealing, and said something about, "I don't know why they're pushing this early, absentee voting. It's just another way somebody with computer skills can change the results." I wanted to tell him he was wrong, that absentee voting actually leaves a verifiable paper trail, and that it was the computerized Diebold machines here in Ohio that can be (and have been) tampered with, but I decided to just let it drop.

But now that you've brought it up, it occurred to me that the vast, vast, VAST majority of his political opinions (or the things he brings up to me and/or my wife) are things he happened to hear on TV or the radio recently (as a general rule, if he brings up a "fact," it's because he heard it that very day). It makes me wonder if the right-wing screamers are now planting the seeds of doubt in their lapdog listeners, and this is their new talking point. They're probably all set to say, "All the polls since February showed HUGE Republican victories, and yet the returns show Democrats winning most of these races. It's CLEAR that they STOLE THIS ELECTION!!! So rise up, people!!! Grab your guns and your bibles!!!"

[Initech]

5. I swear the biggest danger to our country isn't Al-Qaeda.

It's Fux Noise Propaganda, right wing talk and it's millions of brain dead followers.

[monmouth]

4. What if Boehner loses? Is that a possibility???...n/t

[ChoppinBroccoli]

7. I Don't Live In Boner's District, But............

.........I think the chances that he loses are slim and none. That's a rural county in Western Ohio that's about 98% Republican. You could run a ham sandwich in that district, and if you put an (R) next to its name, most of the people would vote for it.

I'm a little bit concerned about the Congressional race in my own district, though, because Mary Jo Kilroy is being vastly outspent by former bank lobbyist Steve Stivers (a guy she's already beaten twice--the last time by just a handful of votes after a recount), and Stivers is probably going to win this time. It also looks like Toolbox Rob Portman (Bush's budget director) is going to mop the floor with Lee Fisher for Ohio's other Senate seat, too. Other than that, though, the Democrats are looking good in Ohio right now.

[monmouth]

8. Thanks...n/t

[CaliforniaPeggy]

6. Off to the Greatest Page, and well deserved! (nt)

[Cognitive_Resonance]

9. Good work Ohio. Keep the pedal to the metal through Nov 2nd. nt