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Support for Prop. 19 falls in latest polls.

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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-21-10 08:31 PM
Original message
Support for Prop. 19 falls in latest polls.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20020270-503544....

"The new poll, released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), shows that 44 percent of likely voters in California plan to vote for Prop. 19, while 49 plan to vote against it and 7 percent remain undecided. This is an 8-point drop in support from PPIC's September poll, when 52 percent of voters said they supported the measure.

A second new poll from SurveyUSA, which conducts automated polls, showed voters in favor of Prop. 19, 48 percent to 44 percent. More voters said they opposed the measure than in previous SurveyUSA polls.

PPIC President and CEO Mark Baldassare told CBSNews.com that California voters typically vote against ballot initiatives -- especially if they receive negative messaging on the issue."

Not good news for those who support Prop. 19 - but - even if the measure fails - tremendous gains have been made on this issue in terms of creating a national conversation about the topic. If not 2010, then 2012?

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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-21-10 08:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. Stupid old farts and suburbanities with children
That's your problem right there. Take those votes away and this passes easily.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-21-10 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. The poll indicates the greatest drop is among Latino and independent voters
Today, 44 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Proposition 19the measure that would legalize marijuanawhile 49 percent plan to vote against it, with 7 percent undecided. This is an 8-point drop in support since September (52% yes, 41% no, 7% undecided).

Support has declined among Democrats (56% today, 63% September), dropped sharply among independents (40% today, 65% September), and remains low among Republicans (30% today, 32% September). Support has declined across nearly all demographic groups, most strikingly among Latinos (42% today, 63% September). Most likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 19 is important (52% very important, 28% somewhat important).

Those planning to vote no are more likely to consider the outcome very important (67%) than those planning to vote yes (40%).

(this info is from a .pdf of the poll data which is available through the link above.)
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GReedDiamond Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-21-10 08:51 PM
Response to Original message
3. "If not 2010, then 2012?"
There is this in the wings, should Prop 19 lose:

The California Cannabis Hemp & Health Initiative 2012, which you may read about at the link (JackHerer.com).

It seems better written, legalistically speaking, than Prop 19, with better provisions to the law in it.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-21-10 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. thanks for the link - will check it out
I knew there was another initiative in the works.

From what I've read - the reason the current prop is limited in its scope - the reason it takes the state out of it - is because the avoids having the state in direct conflict with the federal govt if the initiative passes and legislators have to implement the law.

I haven't read you link yet - but do you know, offhand, if this initiative goes the same route?
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CrawlingChaos Donating Member (583 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-21-10 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
4. Results may be suspect
http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2010/10/21/prop-19-po... /

For one thing, many respondents are reluctant to tell a live person they support legalization. Younger cell phone users probably aren't being counted either.

It's close, but still going strong. PLEASE folks - our state NEEDS this dose of sanity and cannot wait... vote your asses off California!!
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-21-10 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Everyone who supports this needs to get out and vote
Just Say Now also has a sign up for people who want to do phone banking on this issue to help get out the younger vote, which overwhelmingly supports the measure.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-21-10 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. TPM's "excellent widget" reinforces the SurveyUSA poll
with more support than opposition. - and, as you note, that is automated (so that people do not have to indicate they support something that is currently illegal.)

on the other hand, the things I've read about this issue over the past few months indicate that anytime support is below 55%, the outcome is extremely uncertain because the undecideds tend to vote against.

The Yes on 19 spokesperson does indicate it all comes down to turnout - and, again, turnout of the 34 and under voters.
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