NPR poll: Republican midterm tide has crested

[Jamel]

Source: Salon-Joe Conason

A new national survey of battleground districts strongly suggests that the Democrats aren't quite dead just yet

While Democrats must still expect to lose dozens of House seats and several Senate seats on November 2, the earlier trend toward a massive Republican landslide may have been arrested, according to the latest NPR Battleground Poll released Friday. Conducted jointly by Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies, the NPR survey of voters in 96 most hotly contested districts indicates significant narrowing of the Republican lead since the public radio network’s last midterm survey in June.

Still warning of a likely shift in control of the House, the NPR polling team says that while the midterm is still “an ugly election” in the 86 Democratic-controlled districts that they surveyed, this election should no longer be considered a “death march” for Democrats. Their analysis highlights four important new developments:

First, in ten “battleground” House districts currently held by Republicans, the latest numbers suggest that the GOP will “lose a fair number” of those seats bedause their lead has been cut in half since June.



Read more: http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/joe_conason/2010/10/16/nprpoll

[creon]

1. vote

What matters is voting. Not pollng data.

If people who vote Democrat get out and vote, there will be no "death march"

Be sure to vote. Make it emphatic - vote straight Democratic.

[RainDog]

2. the reason voters are angry are because of right wing economic actions

so why would anyone vote for more of that?

but, because people do vote in angry for "the other one on the ballot" we remain stuck in this trickle-down nightmare.

what's killer is that the Repukes who rail against money for job creation, etc. admit it's necessary and useful - but not when they're grandstanding for the party.

what a bunch of asses.

[trotsky]

3. I don't get it either.

Bush & the Repukes get 8 years to run the country into the ditch, and the Dems get blamed for not magically fixing everything in 2 years.

[BlueDemKev]

11. That's right....

...the Republicans are sooooo effective in opposition, it's scary.

[Statistical]

15. Nobody ever said politics was fair or logical.

In 2007 I wondered who could possibly want to be the next President. I mean the limited power combined w/ unlimited expectations at the worst possible time.

[demwing]

6. I think that's false cover

not from you, but from them.

I think the real "Anger" is because aging white racists see their societal edge dulling away each day, and electing a Black President was the last straw. They don't just want to go back to Reaganomics - they want to go back to some Leave it to Beaveresque time when the whole of America was white, well scrubbed, and voted for Ike. Brown people were supporting character at best, and didn't speak up till they you needed your shoes shined or your lawn cut. Women wore pearls and baked cakes, and men sat around with a pipe and a martini.

Those days are gone for ever, if they ever existed at all. Now the American dream is alive for millions of people in a variety of shades of skin color, but the dream of a never-ending white supremacy is dead, or dying.

That's what they hate. That's why they're angry.

Thank god that within a generation or two, they'll be gone.

[okieinpain]

17. i agree, i really believe this is what all the anger is about. n/t.

[BolivarianHero]

20. If I hated African-Americans and worshipped the rich...

The last thing I would pine is for is a President who sent the army to integrate schools and vetoed a bill to cut the highest marginal tax rate from 90%.

[spicegal]

4. Vote Democrats, vote!! That's all I can say.

The right wingers are energized, while much of the electorate is clueless. If Dems sit this one out, the entire country is screwed.

[creon]

9. yes

Make it emphatic vote straight Democratic.

[Chipper Chat]

13. I like that!

[BlueDemKev]

12. Agree 10-Fold

Only WE can determine the outcome of this election. If we vote, we will maintain our majority in the Senate (and possibly the House), but if we stay home, the Rethuglican-Tea Baggers will take over the country.

Your choice, Democratic voters? :dilemma: :dilemma: :dilemma:

[bos1]

5. K+R Dems played Rope-a-Dope for months and let GOP punch themselves out

and now Dems are coming back

[mikekohr]

7. This Just In! DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!!!!!!!!

nt

[GoCubsGo]

8. You wouldn't know that by the way the rest of the MSM is spinning things

They're still spinning the same old spin. Just this morning on the "Toady Show", David Gregory was spinning the Conway-Paul debate to make Paul look like a martyr. Sickening.

[FBaggins]

16. The Salon story is itself "spin".

The actual NPR poll doesn't really reflect good (or bad) news.

In fact, it's hard to tell whether much of the reported data means anything at all. They decided that the playing field had expanded since June, so they polled a much larger number of races. Well...duh... if you had polled all those more-democratic-leaning races in June, you probably would have gotten a similar overall result to what they end up with here. It's virtually impossible to tell if there's any trend at all (good or bad).

[zipplewrath]

10. What is getting buried in all of this data

You see it in bits and pieces, Nate is probably the most honest about it. What no one really knows is who is showing up at the polls in November. The polling outfits do alot of polling. But they have to adjust their data for who is actually going to show up at the polls and vote. And by all accounts the polling firms don't have a clue. The professionals don't like to talk about it much, mostly because their modeling techniques are highly proprietary and basically what makes them profitable or not. But this is a VERY odd year and between certain local issues affecting some turn outs (marijuana laws for example) and a strange "tea party" phenomenon that no one seems to be able to quantify yet, they are all working very "blind".

Everyone seems to "know" that the 30 something's that turned out in '08 aren't going to show up, probably true for a variety of reasons. Progressives/liberals are going to show up, they always do, so that's not a big question mark. The retired/elderly contingent are going to be there. The question marks are in two places, and probably are going to define this election, although the press won't figure it out for months after the election. They'll just put out some narrative they've already written in their heads.

There are 3 important crowds that no one knows how they'll vote.

1) The "straight" GOP. These are folks who have voted for years, and they've voted for republicans. In certain key races, they have choices between a "tea party" GOP nominee, and a "write in" main stream GOP candidate. The write in may be very unlikely to get many of those votes. The concern is that the same thing that has ENCOURAGED the candidates to take on write in campaigns is what might affect the races over all. These folks may just not vote. They can't decide which one to vote for, so they'll basically let someone else decide.

2) "Independent Tea Party". These are the angry folks that aren't so much mainline GOP as they are the "anti-incumbent" voters. They're pissed at everyone and ALWAYS vote against the incumbent candidate and majority party. So what do they do when their choice is between the incumbent, or the majority party candidate? These folks could move many important districts. They may vote 3rd party just so they can do the whole "don't blame me" schtick afterwards.

3) The "moderate" independents. These are the classic fence sitters. They are fairly apolitical most of the time, and show up at the polls with fairly vague feelings about candidates. They often go with incumbents unless they've decided it's time for a "change" in the sense of "giving someone else a shot". It isn't clear there is a big move amongst these voters against the democrats, and the highly right wing nature of the current GOP/Bagger crowd probably sets them off. But their primary action may be to not vote at all.

And the end result of much of this is that a low voter turn out in some areas may help the GOP, and hurt them in others. In "heavier" classic democratic regions, a low turn out may favor the democratic candidate since it will be mostly "traditional" democrats that vote straight tickets year after year. In more classic GOP districts, it may be more important for there to be large turnouts to favor the dems since otherwise it will be just a bunch of traditional GOP voters plus the baggers. So the polling outfits are stuck developing models on a district by district basis. That cost alot of cash, and they don't necessarily have the mathematical data to develop them in the first place.

It's going to be a wild night.

[FBaggins]

14. Is that the 15th time that it has "crested" in the last three months...

...or just the 14th?

[Scurrilous]

18. K & R

:thumbsup:

[struggle4progress]

19. Looking at the NPR poll, I see:

Question 16: if the election for United States Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote
R candidate or Lean R candidate 46%
D candidate or Lean D candidate 45%

Question D3: In politics today, do you consider yourself ...
Strong R, not so strong R, or lean R 39%
Strong D, not so strong D, or lean D 39%

Question D9. And, for which of the following candidates did you vote for President in 2008
McCain 47%
Obama 47%

[patrice]

21. That's my sense of it. I haven't had a flat out "No" on the phone in 3 sessions, still getting

"undecideds", a few more "yes"s, but no "No"s lately.