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The Northerner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 10:55 AM
Original message
Recession not over, public says
Washington (CNN) -- Economic experts may believe the recession is over, but try telling that to the public.

Seventy-four percent of Americans believe the economy is still in a recession, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll. Only 25 percent think the downturn is over.

One-third of Americans say the recession is serious, while another 29 percent characterize it as moderate.

One small cause for optimism: the percentage of Americans who say the country is in a recession has dropped 13 points since August.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent group of economists, released a September 20 statement indicating the recession technically ended in June 2009. The dip began in December 2007 -- making it the longest and deepest downturn for the U.S. economy since the Great Depression.

Administration officials, while sounding guardedly optimistic about overall trends, have repeatedly expressed concern for those impacted by the sluggish economy.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/09/26/economy.poll/ind...
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Sinistrous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
1. Please help dispel my ignorance:
What were the metrics that indicated the recession was "over" this summer?
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FiveGoodMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. I think it was the number of weeks till November.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Actually, it was over last summer:
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Generally recession is defined at 2 or more qtrs of NEGATIVE GDP growth.
Edited on Mon Sep-27-10 12:16 PM by Statistical
The recession lasted as long as the GDP was shrinking (total output of US economy was smaller on month over month basis).

GDP shrunk continually from Dec 2007 to June 2009. Since June 2009 the economic output has grown. It has grown weakly and slower than most hope but it has grown thus economy is no longer in recession. They waited to call an end to avoid situation where a couple months of + GDP growth was a blip in a larger downard trend. There is a lot of "noise" is the data making analysis in real time virtually impossible. After a year of confirmation data it is clear that the low point in GDP contraction was June 2009.

Lack of recession doesn't mean economy is good or people aren't hurting. It is a technical term like "bankruptcy". One can be in financial trouble and not have filed bankruptcy. Conversely getting out of bankruptcy doesn't mean you are swimming in cash.

The economy is out of recession because GDP growth is positive. Another way to say it is aggregate output of US economy is rising.
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Sinistrous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Thank you.
I guess I feel that the recession is still in full swing, given the unemployment rate ~10%. It looks to me that the economy stopped "recessing" a while ago, but is still "recessed".
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Statistical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. That is a good way to put it.
Another way to look at it is that while we may have no job growth or weak job growth as long as economic output is declining you will never get job growth.
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JoeyTrib Donating Member (215 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 08:52 PM
Response to Original message
6. Well freaking duh.
It's only over for big guys who got handouts, bailouts, whatever.
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ibegurpard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 08:54 PM
Response to Original message
7. Maybe we should tell them to stop whining and count their blessings
Edited on Mon Sep-27-10 08:55 PM by ibegurpard
think that'll work?
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leftstreet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-27-10 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. AND drug test them!
That'll also work
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