Is Something Happening? - Repubs dropping in Polls?

RamboLiberal

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Tue Sep-21-10 02:34 PM
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Is Something Happening? - Repubs dropping in Polls?

Edited on Tue Sep-21-10 02:44 PM by RamboLiberal

Caveats, caveats, caveats. But is something happening for the Democrats in the national generic ballot?

Nate Silver says that the congressional generic may be understating the Democrats' strength. But it's starting to look like that number itself may be shifting. Over the last week, five polling organizations have come out showing the Democrats 1 point ahead of the Republicans. Those are Reuters/Ipsos, Gallup, Zogby, Yougov and PPP. And as you can see from the chart below, it's actually more of a Republican drop than the Democrats rising, though it's a bit of both. And that suggests that it's not just a matter of Dems coming home as the election heats up.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/09/is_something_happening.php#more?ref=fpblg

Both the Real Clear Politics Congressional Generic average and the new Gallup track show similar national trend lines - Dems gaining ground, GOP dropping. Similarly, the Gallup track has Obama's approval rating improving by 10 net percentage points in the past month, from 42/51 to 47/46 (RCP has shown movement despite 2 clear outlier Rasmussen and AP polls).

If these trend lines are true, no one should be suprised. The underlining favorability of the Republican Party is still far below that of the Dems and Obama. This election has never been like 1994 where at this point there had been both a fall of the Dems and a rise in the GOP. The memory of the disasterous GOP reign in the last decade is still too fresh, their leaders still to unreformed, their candidates far too wacky, and their ideas still to reckless for the current GOP to have fully taken advantage of the Democratic underpeformance this past cycle. This election, like all elections, is not like any other election. It has its own contours, its own set of dynamics. Like all elections it is sui generis.

As NDN has been arguing for most of 2010, the real questions in the election were 1) could the Democrats get their huge base to come home and vote 2) could the Dems do a better job at engaging on the main issue of the election, the economy, and better define the GOP as a reckless party? The late movement in this election, despite the truly silly "baked in the cake" arguments we've heard on TV of late, was always likely to be towards the Democrats. This current Congress had done too much right for the summer perceptions of Democratic performance to continue to be as bad as it was. And the underlying strength of the Democratic and Obama brands were just too great for their standing not to improve with some focused recalibration, which has happened now. We dont really now exactly why these things have happened, but I for one believe its because the President has begun to make the choice on the economy much more clear.

http://ndn.org/blog/2010/09/poll-watch-hope-dems

Focus less on the narrow Democratic lead (throw in Rasmussen, and that evaporates), but the trends. Those are not good trends for the GOP, and shows that whatever their flaws, Democrats are closing strong.

And while the GOP couldn't stop releasing internal poll numbers all spring and summer (with nary a Democratic response), suddenly the roles are reversed -- it's the Democrats who are dumping scads of great-looking internal polling, while Republicans have gone suspiciously silent.

It's telling that House Republicans are suddenly scrambling to release their "plan" for America. They showed little interest in campaigning on any agenda while they rode high on the polls. It was all "Pelosi Obama Pelosi Obama bugga bugga bugga", all the time. But the wind seems to be out of those sails, the enthusiasm gap appears to be narrowing, and the GOP's big generic ballot lead is starting to erode. That's why they're releasing their plan -- to try and stem the bleeding.

Make no mistake -- the GOP will make significant gains this November. I'm not trying to create false hope or wear blinders. But if we hold the House and Senate, at the cost of a few dozen Blue Dogs, it won't just be a victory for us, but it'll sunder the GOP. They expect to win both chambers. If we stop them, the simmering battle between the teabaggers and GOP establishment will be epic.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/9/21/903871/-Perhaps-Dems-arent-so-doomed-in-2010