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The Illusion of a ‘limited war’ against Iran by - Mahan Abedin writes for Informed Consent

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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-11-10 07:45 AM
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The Illusion of a ‘limited war’ against Iran by - Mahan Abedin writes for Informed Consent

an article that really must be read in full:

http://www.juancole.com/2010/08/abedin-the-illusion-of-...




American political and military leaders would be mistaken if they believed they could get away with a “limited” military strike on Iran, designed to destroy that country’s nuclear infrastructure. Any military strike on Iran by the United States will be interpreted by Iran’s rulers, and their IRGC enforcers, as a direct assault on the integrity and the very existence of the Islamic Republic. From a strategic point of view, IRGC commanders will interpret any American strike as the beginning of an existential conflict, and will respond appropriately.



snip....

Even if the United States manages to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and much of the country’s military assets, the IRGC can still claim victory by claiming to have given the Americans a bloody nose and producing an outcome not dissimilar from the Israeli-Hezbollah military engagement in the summer of 2006.

The political effect of this will likely be even more explosive than the actual fighting. Not only will it awaken the sleeping giant of Iranian nationalism, thus aligning the broad mass of the people with the regime, it will also shore up Iran’s image in the region and prove once and for all that the Islamic Republic is prepared to fight to the death to uphold its principles. Suddenly Iran’s allies in the region – particularly non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas – would stand ten feet tall.

snip:

The combination of these asymmetrical forms of warfare with more conventional style missile and even ground force attacks on American bases in the region will likely result in thousands of American military casualties in the space of a few weeks. The IRGC has both the will and wherewithal to inflict a level of casualties on American armed forces not seen since the Second World War.

Contrary to what Mike Mullen and other American military commanders appear to believe, a military attack on Iran really is the very worst option. Its consequences for Iran, the region and the United States are dangerously unpredictable, to the extent that any decision to attack would be nothing less than stunningly reckless and quite possibly the worst strategic mistake in American military history. Responsible actors in the international system should exert the maximum effort to avoid an Iranian-American War.


link to full article:

http://www.juancole.com/2010/08/abedin-the-illusion-of-...




Mahan Abedin


Mr. Abedin co-edited Unmasking Terror: A Global Review of Terrorist Actitives (2005). He is an expert on Iran, Iraq and Islamic movements and ideologies. Mr. Abedin makes contributions to numerous publications, including the Beirut-based Daily Star and Asia Times. He gained his MSc in Political Theory from the London School of Economics in 2000. Mr. Abedin has since worked as a consultant on financial, political and security affairs related to the Middle East.


http://www.jamestown.org/details/?tx_bzdstaffdirectory_...
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-11-10 05:23 PM
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1. Thanks Doug.
K & R :thumbsup:
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