Despite all the gloom and doom business is picking up steam and could lead the recovery..

[DCBob]

Hope for economy in strong manufacturing reports
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER and ALAN ZIBEL (AP) – 12 hours ago

People aren't spending money like they used to. Unemployment is still flirting with double digits. And the housing market is still shaky. So the future looks bleak for the economy, right? Not necessarily.

A handful of surprisingly good earnings reports Thursday suggested that some of the major U.S. companies that make things and move them around — including Caterpillar, 3M and UPS — could lead the way to an economic recovery.

It would be an unusual path back to better times. Consumer spending and housing usually lead the way. But all three of those economic bellwether companies, plus AT&T and Union Pacific railroad, indicated business was picking up. And most said they expected it to get even stronger later this year.

more: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gNiyJ905Ho0Ur96V2TQhsBX19lGwD9H4BU5G0

Some economists such as Krugman, Roubini and Reich are predicting recession and/or depression. I think they will be revising their forecasts soon.

[ShamelessHussy]

1. yeah, it's looking great if you are an executive

but not if you're part of the rest of the crowd.

[DCBob]

2. but at some point, if business keeps improving, they will have to begin hiring again..

execs arent going to do any of the "real" work that keeps thier businesses going.

[NightWatcher]

5. That's what India and China are for, they'll do it cheaper than US workers

Don't pee on my leg and tell me it's "steaming".

[girl gone mad]

10. That's what the supply-side economists say.

How has that paradigm worked out for the middle class over the last 30 years?

[DCBob]

12. So you think business will hire more if business is not improving??

I dont get it.

[jschurchin]

18. Don't count on it.

In the last year we have had 5 men retire and 5 more go off sick. Wanna know how many they have replaced? 4. So now 4 men do the work of 10.
But if it makes you feel any better Bob, our profit has just about returned to 2007 levels. Woohoo!!! And I guarantee, when profit begins to fall again, so will the ax.

[Donnachaidh]

24. that was said six months ago, and according to Pollyannas who say it's recovering now

Soooo, where's the beef?

All this *it's recovering* malarkey doesn't mean diddley-shit to people who are out of work NOW. It's just the echo chamber, mouthing inanities while praying people will start consuming again. Problem with that is you CAN'T consume if you don't WORK for wages.

ECHO.PERIOD.

[Fumesucker]

3. Do you really think Roubini, Reich and Krugman don't know about this?

And are not factoring this data into their analyses?

[DCBob]

7. They know but are dismissing it for some reason.. I guess they think its not real and wont last.

Maybe they are right but if business keeps improving this way the only gloom and doom will be in their weekly columns.

[Scurrilous]

4. Good news.

K & R :thumbsup:

[hobbit709]

6. My ATT phone bill has gone up 20% in the past year.

No rate increases, they just came up with new FEES. Fees cost them nothing and increase the hell out of their profit margin.

[safeinOhio]

8. I find the truth

some where in between the nay sayers and the cheer leaders. Works every time.

[Selatius]

9. I'll be happy when U-6 unemployment begins real, sustained movement downward.

It is jobs that put food on the table, and it has always been true that aggregate demand was the final arbiter in whether firms hire or lay-off workers. If aggregate demand is not there, then producers will not see a need to hire large numbers of workers.

[DCBob]

15. Yeah. me too.. but its a good sign that at least its not going up anymore..

imo.

[RockaFowler]

11. We have seen it in sales

TV ad sales are sky-rocketing right now. We are up 30-40% over last year. Of course we are getting a lot of political, but Auto and Communications are way up over last year.

[Stinky The Clown]

13. Trickle down is a proven failed economic model.

Trickle down is also known as pissed on.

Self respecting people advise being pissed off rather than pissed on.

[DCBob]

17. Im not talking about giving money to the rich hoping we get some scraps..

This is simply saying businesses are beginning to show signs of life and they may start hiring which may help us get out of this near recession/depression. What's wrong with that?

[KharmaTrain]

14. Duplex Economy...

We truly live in two Americas these days. If you have investments then all the above is good news. It hopefully means the market moves upwards and those whose incomes, especially retirees, depend on those investments will benefit. But, as we see here on DU day in and out, that's not all of this country...many who are still suffering from an economy that's imploded and still flat on its back.

When I hear people throw around the word "jobs"...be it someone here or on the corporate media or a politician I always chuckle as the word is so generic and most of the people using it are more specific. Some thing the government is the one that creates jobs...some magical stimulus will put everyone to work...that's not the case. Much of that money would be dedicated toward infrastructure...good if you're in construction but doesn't do much for a lifelong cube rat or service industry...many of those jobs are gone and aren't coming back.

All this good news does little if credit is still tight as a drum and there's little money for small and medium businesses to invest and grow with.

[DCBob]

16. No doubt.. and that problem appears to be getting worse..

Its almost like we are ignoring a whole segment of the population. Its a huge problem.. but my point, in harsh economic terms, is that does not mean we are going to fall into a recession or depression.

[lunatica]

19. The problem is who is going to buy these things made in the USA?

How many people need Caterpillar equipment? Doesn't the sales of this equipment require credit because it's so expensive? I know for a fact that UPS has laid off many of its delivery people, and what exactly does UPS manufacture?

[Tailormyst]

20. I've been hoping for an improvement for a couple years now

Still not seeing it. The small business I work for will probably shut down at the end of August. My boss has mortgaged everything he could to keep us going but things just haven't gotten better. I've never had to file unemployment, but boy am I glad its there as a safety net ( at least a temp one).

[DCBob]

21. My company just went through the same scenario you described.

We are now filing chap 11 and all employees were laid off. I am working as a consultant waiting to see if anything can be resurrected from the ashes. I doubt it. It's not fun.

[Tailormyst]

23. No, it's not fun

I think until the large companies and financial institutions are reigned in nothing will change. The divide between the rich and the not rich is becoming larger and larger. The untra rich horde their money and it isn't put back into the system. The middle/working classes spend almost all their money, putting it all back into the system. I think it is broken beyond repair with the citizens united ruling.

[NJmaverick]

22. K & R!

[rusty fender]

25. Are you related to Baghdad Bob?

White is black, black is white, Obama=peace.

[girl gone mad]

28. :)

I was wondering that, too.

[Greyhound]

26. You do know that none of those companies mentioned is a net job creator, right?

Small businesses create jobs, Large businesses shed jobs. It's the normal business cycle.

Also Krugman, Roubini and Reich each have much better records predicting these things than CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, ALAN ZIBEL, or Bernard Condon. This analysis considers nothing but future stock prices which only measures how the "investor class" is doing.

[robdogbucky]

27. A blog I know had this to say about it....

Steve Pizzo, author of site "News For Real," sent me the following information in an email, condensed here for your reading pleasure. He asserts that the MSM meme of Obama being bad for big business is not borne out in the following recent signs from the business news headlines:


"Travelers' net income hits $670 million; EPS rises 6% to $1.35 a share

Caterpillar raises 2010 forecast as orders continue to outpace shipments; dividend hiked

GM agrees to buy AmeriCredit for $3.5 bln to address leasing, non-prime financing demand

U.S. stocks rally on earnings news; Dow up 150 points

UPS raises outlook as quarterly profit surges

Lower expenses boost Bristol-Myers profit

AT&T Net Income up on Smartphone Additions

Philip Morris Profit Jumps"


He then makes the following observations about this compared to what Main St. and Joe Sixpack are experiencing:


"So, if Obama’s policies are causing big business so much “uncertainty” and burdening them with regulations and oversight, why are they doing so well. In fact the only sector of the economy still suffering from the Bush depression is the part of the economy where most Americans live:

U.S. initial jobless claims rise by 37,000; continuing claims fall by 223,000

Existing home sales fall 5.1% as tax credit ends

Colorado's (under)-employment measures 14.6% vs 8.0 unemployment

Sinking in wave of foreclosures

Hello foreclosure and goodbye neighborhood?

MEMO TO MAIN STREAM MEDIA: Maybe you need to tag any stories you run that claim Obama’s policies are anti-business with what’s really happening out there in company-land. Because one or the other is lie. Both narratives cannot survive scrutiny in the same story. Either Obama is killing the business goose, or the business goose and its barnyard friends are lying through their beaks."

Credtit to Steve Pizzo at News for Real.


We are still suffering here on Main St. I can only hope the Pollyanas are right that business may lead a recovery, although history would defy that theory ever coming to fruition.



Just my dos centavos


robdogbucky