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Prediction: Kagan will be confirmed easily.

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BurtWorm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 04:10 PM
Original message
Prediction: Kagan will be confirmed easily.
Edited on Wed Jun-30-10 04:11 PM by BurtWorm
I'll stick my neck out and say she will be a liberal Roberts, i.e., someone who gave Dems no reason to vote against him in the hearings but who has turned out to be the right-wing asshole everyone knew he was. I'm guessing Kagan has been on her very best behavior to assure herself of a place on the court, and I think--I hope fervently actually--that she will solidly shore up the left wing of the court. (I don't care if she's an asshole to right-wingers when she gets on the court. More power to her if she is.)

Here's an interesting assessment from yahoo news of Kagan's performance. The author, law professor Barry Friedman, argues that, based on her testimony, she'll "clearly" be more moderate than Stevens. I doubt anyone knows how she'll be when she puts on the robe. Confirmation hearings are no indication of what's in store as far as votes and views go.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl2949

...

Kagan has also demonstrated considerable agility when the questions have gotten into specific legal issues. We didnt know much about her views going into this hearing and we wont know a whole lot more coming out of them. But shes clearly sharp, well prepared and highly able. Senators who tried to challenge her have been frustrated at their inability to do so. Repeatedly, they simply announced that they would move on to their next subject, having made little headway.

It is also clearer than ever that Kagan is not likely to move the court to the left. Shes replacing Justice John Paul Stevens, arguably the most liberal member of the existing court. From her responses to questions on issues such as gun rights which she says is now settled law shes given Republican senators no reason to conclude she will be to the left of Stevens. If anything, those on the left may be concerned by the moderation of her answers.

Some of the Republicans will vote for Kagan; some against her. But so far, her nomination is moving ahead even more easily than expected. It would require a filibuster to stop it; almost all the Republicans would have to decide they were willing to talk it to death on the Senate floor. That just isnt going to happen, and not only for all the reasons above. It would also be political suicide. Several senators have noted how well the questioning is going; stalling a well-qualified female nominee isnt likely to do much for them. So why bother causing a stink that isnt going anywhere?

By the end of Senator Grassleys questioning, the repartee between Grassley and Kagan had the hearing room in stitches. There were roles to be played, to be sure. But a sense that we are all friends here prevailed through much of the afternoon from both the senators and the soon-to-be Justice.

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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
1. all dems will vote for her, and she'll also get the votes of Collins, Brown, Snowe, Voinovich,
Lieberman and maybe one or two others.
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BurtWorm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #1
3.  It's possible Graham will vote for her and/or Grassley.
Though if you're right about the others, those votes are moot, they know it, and will vote against her to preserve their Republican cred, if you'll forgive the oxymoron.
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baldguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 04:18 PM
Response to Original message
2. If the worst thing her opponants can say is that she'd emmulate Justice Thurgood Marshall...
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customerserviceguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 04:47 PM
Response to Original message
4. She's a pretty blank slate
We have no idea how she's going to turn out. I guess the Repukes don't want to piss her off too much, maybe she'll give them a few thumbs up on corporate stuff, even if she's going to be progressive on social issues.
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BurtWorm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. They have no reason to think otherwise.
But they have no reason to think the opposite either. She has taken some apparently centrist positions as a manager of people and as a representative of an administration. There's no good reason to think she'll take centrist positions when she is a Supreme Court Justice for life and doesn't really have to please anyone but herself and history.
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harun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 05:06 PM
Response to Original message
6. I hope she ends up being a Liberal Tyrannosaurus Rex. But we won't
know until we know.
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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 05:13 PM
Response to Original message
7. IMO, the republicans will stick together and filibuster. They can't allow President Obama
another success. Their teabagger base will go berserk.
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BurtWorm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. I think this one got past them.
I don't think they can stop it.
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Uzybone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 05:20 PM
Response to Original message
8. plenty of smoke, no fire; from left and right
Kagan will be confirmed (easily by todays standards) and she will be a very solid liberal on the bench.
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cutlassmama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. agreed
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Blue Owl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-30-10 05:30 PM
Response to Original message
10. and Jeff Fucking Sessions can go back to his shitty plantation
n/t
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