over on The Oil Drum, the consensus is Top Kill has failed, in fact never had a chance of success

[Ex Lurker]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6518#comments_top

I'm watching the spill cam. it looks not much different than this time yesterday.

[Junkdrawer]

1. I guess we'll know as soon as the markets close...

that seems to be the driver for releasing info...

[Ex Lurker]

2. as someone in that thread noted, look for BP to do a major news dump 6 PM Friday

the start of Memorial Day weekend, dontcha know.

[Junkdrawer]

3. Gives them 3 days to try Plan Q: Cut the riser and cap with Top Hat II...

which they say would take about 2 days...

[bullwinkle428]

15. That is EXACTLY why I figured they were using the "we'll know in

about 24 hours" estimate, putting in into the late Friday PM/Saturday AM time frame, when they KNEW that minimal attention is being to the news, other than junkies like us.

[BootinUp]

4. The pressure from the well is just too much for this strategy. nt

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Lithos]

6. At this time, I think the oildrum has become an open forum

A quick look at the membership in that thread showed that for the four names I checked, only one of them had been on the forum more than 2 days. The site is now filled with armchair pundits and the sites popularity as a source has now proved its undoing...

[nenagh]

7. I agree with you completely...

During the evening and early morning it was as if the collective angst of the nation was spewing out on TheOilDrum.com.

[dgibby]

8. T. Boone Pickens said as much last night on Larry King's show.

He was very pessimistic about the chances that Top Kill or Junk Shot will work. Said our only hope is the relief wells. Depressing!

[TampaAnimus2010]

9. Why would they try something that didn't have a chance?

Sounds like it would just equate into higher fines and penalties for them in the end. They have a vested interest now, not just to save the oil (which is also a concern for them), but to avoid higher costs on lawsuits and other legal issues. They want that hole closed as much as anyone now. They may have been idiots in letting it get to this situation, but suggesting nefarious reasons for wanting to keep it open is just silly.

[Statistical]

10. That is why it is called a long shot.

I said a week ago likely the only thing that stops this leak is the relief well.
Relief wells are low risk, high success, and proven to work in every major offshore blowout.

The downside is we got at least 70 days to go until relief well finishes the job.

Why not try longshots until that point?

[TampaAnimus2010]

12. oh I agree, but I heard this had a 60 to 70 percent chance of working...

They should inject that expanding foam used for caulking windows down in there :)

[Downtown Hound]

13. I think you can probably cut that figure down in half

And then you probably have their real expectations of it working.

[jtrockville]

11. This is very disappointing.

[joeybee12]

14. From what I heard, even in better conditions, this is a hit or miss thing...

...can work, might not, and they don't really know why or why not.