Anyone else feel that our projected defeat in November might be overstated?

[Deep13]

I keep seeing these holes the Rs are digging for themselves while the Congressional Ds continue to rack up successes. Plus the primaries seem to be going our way. I'm aware of the trend that the new POTUS always loses seats in the first mid-term. OTOH, I also know that the atypical can happen.

[KingFlorez]

1. I think losses will be kept to a minimum

The Republicans peaked too early and overplayed their hand.

[Arkana]

2. Been thinking that since the primaries a week ago.

All of the right things happened--weak incumbents got beat, teabagger candidates won...

[NoNothing]

3. Too hard to say at this point

It is definitely true that Dem favorables are low, but Rep favorables are *also* low. People are just generally pissed off right now and that usually means bad news for incumbents rather than one specific party.

[BreweryYardRat]

4. Yep.

Republicans keep disgracing themselves.

[zipplewrath]

5. The GOP is their own enemy

I would have predicted some serious losses in November. Then the Arizona law got passed. Rand Paul got nominated and became as stupid as ever. McConnell tried to side with Wall Street. And as each day goes by, they move closer to the birthers, baggers, and birchers. Could be an interesting fall.

[Ozymanithrax]

6. Historical forces indicate a trouncing...but other forces at work in...

the Republican Party, the Tea Party, and the economy may lead to less of a trouncing than would be normal in a midterm after a new party takes power in the White House.

These predictions are based on history, but current events can trump history. I fully expect 20 or so seats in the House and 3 or 4 Senators. I won't be surprised if it worse or better.

History doesn't really repeat itself, though there are recurring themes. Some see a Whig theme replaying in current history.

[Subdivisions]

7. You have to consider the source of those projections of defeat...

Once you've done that you'll realize how stupid it would be to buy into it.

[yella_dawg]

8. November is a long way away.

A lot can change between now and then. The gulf spill damage will be obvious by then. I suspect a state of national emergency may be imminent. Commercial real estate problems will almost certainly come to a head, and a prime mortgage disaster is unfolding at this moment. The Euro is unstable and could well collapse. North Korea. The oil spill hits Cuba. Southeast Asia is in turmoil. And on and on and on.

Political prognostication at this point is basically pointless.

[Happyhippychick]

9. I've been saying that for months.

Dems aren't going anywhere.

[Cleita]

10. Yep, I think those predictions won't happen. When primary season gets

in full swing, there will be a lot of surprises and even more in November. All those drill baby drill and keeping government out of private enterprise politicians will be finding themselves looking for jobs in future elections. Even many of the Tea Partyers are going to start drinking coffee and seeing the light. I think the primaries in Kentucky were a harbinger and I believe the gulf oil geyser is going to seal the deal. I just hope we can keep our elections honest being nothing has been done to curb cheating, whether with losing ballots or Deibold machines that miscount.

[proudohioan]

11. I feel the same way.

I think the R's have shot themselves in the foot one too many times. Their refusal to do ANYTHING other than obstruct and throw a temper tantrum shows their true colors; are they working for themselves, or their constituents?

[Warpy]

12. It's based on one thing

and that is that mid terms "always" turn Congress over to the opposition.

That wasn't the case when Stupid was in the White House, but they conveniently forget that along with forgetting Stupid was the one who did all the damage that Obama is trying to fix.

I'm not making any bets about November. I know people are in a massively surly mood out there between the economy and the oil blowout. They feel betrayed on health care reform and they're going to feel betrayed on financial reform. They're pretty disgusted with Congress in general, although the fallacy that their own guy is OK while your SOB has to go might prevail.

The only prediction I have is that there will be some ugly surprises for both parties.

[Vincardog]

13. I believe we can afford to lose all the Concservadems DINOs and NEW Dems replacing them with REAL Ds

[ChoppinBroccoli]

14. I Kinda Feel Like Joe Namath............

............after he was constantly told that the lowly New York Jets, from the weak sister AFL, had absolutely no chance of defeating the mighty Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl 3.

And truth be told, I think the Republicans are scared to death about what's going to happen, and they're just repeating their boasts as a way of trying to convince themselves that they might be right. Either that or to try to keep the base's spirits up, because things are about a billion percent worse for them right now than their projections told them they'd be a few months ago.

[lunatica]

15. The GOP are the ones who are going to lose

And probably a lot more than they think.

[Deep13]

16. I think we will have a Senate pick-up here in Ohio. nt

[Blue-Jay]

17. KY too, if Rand keeps spoutin' the crazy.

[DevonRex]

18. Damn, don't get the Socialists and Greens and Anarchists all riled up.

And whatever party Nader has glommed onto. Because then we'll have a rash of "we're all doomed" posts.

[lunatica]

19. I can hear the GOP praying up a storm!

They promising all kinds of things just so God will keep them from losing too badly.