Foreclosure activity falls 10% in January

[babylonsister]

Foreclosure activity falls 10% in January

A real estate firm is expected to report Thursday that 315,716 U.S. homes were caught up in the foreclosure process last month. That's 15% fewer than a year earlier.

By Alejandro Lazo

February 11, 2010


A total of 315,716 U.S. homes were mired in the foreclosure process in January, a 10% decline from foreclosure activity measured in December, a real estate firm will report Thursday.

That number is still 15% above the level of foreclosure activity reported by RealtyTrac in January 2009. The report by the company, which sells foreclosure information to consumers online, shows that 1 in 409 U.S. homes last month was listed in a foreclosure filing -- default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions.

Completed foreclosures increased 31% from January 2009, even though they dropped 5% from the previous month.

The sharp year-over-year increase is a sign that a backlog of defaulting properties may be entering the final foreclosure phase after several national and local moratoriums expired and the government's efforts to permanently lower mortgage payments for thousands of Americans failed, RealtyTrac Senior Vice President Rick Sharga said.

"The real spike was in bank repossessions," Sharga said. "And that suggests to me that some of the processing delays that we saw keeping numbers down may be ending."

more....

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosures11-2010feb11,0,3643657.story

[xiamiam]

1. banks are dragging their feet on loan mods..that is why...and short sales

have taken over in my neck of the woods...its not over..we have yet to hit bottom

[fasttense]

2. OK, I'm seriously confused.

This article appears to contradict itself.

"315,716 U.S. homes were caught up in the foreclosure process last month. That's 15% fewer than a year earlier."


"That number is still 15% above the level of foreclosure activity reported by RealtyTrac in January 2009."

So which is it? Up or down?

[TexasObserver]

5. The headline does appear to misstate the content in that regard.

I'll see if I can restate it properly.

Foreclosures in January were UP 15% over January 2009, but the January numbers were a 10% decrease from December.

The headline is simply wrong about the "15% fewer than a year earlier."

[TexasObserver]

3. Yes, contrary to the nay-sayers, there are positive signs.

This is good news. It's a real decrease in foreclosures from December.

[MercutioATC]

4. It's a 15% INCREASE from January 2009. A 10% dip from December 2009.

"First, the good news: Foreclosure filings dropped nearly 10% between December and January.

Now, the bad news: Filings rose 15% compared to a year ago, and the number of people who actually had their homes repossessed jumped 31% to 87,648.

And the drop in filings might -- or might not -- be actual good news. The numbers followed a familiar theme: December foreclosure statistics tend to spike as households cope with increased spending preceding the holidays and end of year financial pressures.

"January foreclosure numbers are exhibiting a pattern very similar to a year ago," said James Saccacio, RealtyTrac's CEO. "If history repeats itself, we will see a surge in the numbers over the next few months as lenders foreclose on delinquent loans where neither the existing loan-modification programs or the new short sale and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure alternatives works."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosures-slow-in-January-cnnm-932786796.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=


This isn't good news.

[TexasObserver]

6. Which is exactly what I said here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=7691475&mesg_id=7691573

While the foreclosures are up in January 2010 from January 2009, they're down from December 2009.

We disagree on what constitutes positive news.

[MercutioATC]

8. I replied to the original content of your post, not the edited content.

That said, this is the same pattern we saw last year.

January 2009's numbers were 10% below December 2008's numbers, just as January 2010's numbers were 10% below December 2009's numbers.

http://www.realtytrac.com/contentmanagement/pressrelease.aspx?channelid=9&itemid=5822


...and we're 15% further in the hole this year.

This is NOT a positive trend.

[TexasObserver]

12. I edited it before you posted your post in reply.

But whatever.

See my other posts on this topic. It's good news because the trend is down. You're comparing January 2010 to January 2009, when the more valid comparison is January 2010 to December 2009.

[MercutioATC]

19. How id Jan 2009 - Dec 2010 a more valid comparison?

Especially in light of the fact that last years numbers were identical and we saw a 15% increase in foreclosures year-to-year.

[TexasObserver]

21. Your dates are off badly. I'm comparing Dec 09 with Jan 10. A month.

You: compare January 09 to January 10

Me: compare December 09 to January 10

Your comparison is between events a year apart, divided by the collapse of the DOW to 6700 in March 09.

My comparison is between events a month apart, divided by nothing.

[MercutioATC]

30. Typo. Should have been Dec 2009 - Jan 2010.

[TexasObserver]

33. well, we're even on snafus, anyway

[DCBob]

7. Thats good news to me.. or would you rather it had gone up from December??

This means the rate of foreclosures is beginning to level off. Very good news indeed. Housing caused this mess and housing will lead us out.

[MercutioATC]

9. Read Post #8. This is not positive news.

The exact same thing happened last year. Improvements in January are a trend.

...but we're 15% further in the hole this year over last.

[DCBob]

13. Regardless its still good news. Any decrease is a step in the right direction.

Many were predicting a massive number of new foreclosures this year... these numbers indicate that it might not happen. Good news.

[MercutioATC]

18. "These numbers" indicate no such thing.

If anything, these numbers indicate a repeat of last year's events (15% increase in foreclosures).

[DCBob]

20. Comparisons to last year are misleading..

The crisis was just beginning to heat up and most were still able to make their mortgage payments. This is good news dude. I am not sure what your goal is in making a negative out of this.

[xiamiam]

25. millions are bogged down in attempted loan mods which is why the foreclosures have slowed

and short sales are continuing to displace people as they sell their home for less than owed with bank approval believing that their credit will take less of a hit than a foreclosure...plus, many of those loan mods will be denied and then go to foreclosure...there has been a stall for a couple months..i know, i watch, and am intimately involved..we have yet to see even the beginning of a housing recovery

[DCBob]

27. Perhaps, but I am just thrilled not to see a massive increase.. as many have been predicting.

Any glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel is good news to me.

[xiamiam]

31. hang on to your hat...either the banks are pressured to actually do some of these loan mods

or we are going to see a tidal wave of new foreclosures..right now the short sales are still pulling the numbers down but not reflected in the foreclosure statistics..not quite accurate imo..however, a short sale next door lowers the value of the neighborhood..thats the new comp..period..this has yet to adjust in california although perhaps in areas which did not experience huge value increases...bottom line is this, anyone who bought a house in the last 7 years in california has no equity..and in most cases, lost their down payment of 20% as well..

[DCBob]

32. but their monthly payments have not changed.. right??

If they have jobs (I know thats a big if) why wouldn't they just keep paying the mortgage?

[xiamiam]

36. if they have jobs? and no unforeseen medical expenses? or commissions which dried up?

or tenants occupying a property who can't pay because of one of the above...many reasons which created the perfect storm for the average american homeowner..in one part of my county, home values are down 50%..the rest about 30% from a few years ago..the only ones sitting tight are those with secure jobs who have owned their home for close to a decade..other than that, not so much

[DCBob]

38. Well we will see what happens next few months..

This may just be blip on the chart but I hope its real... if foreclosures rate keeps increasing it will get ugly.

[xiamiam]

39. i want you to know that i hope its real as well

i am a realtor..i already lost one home
i had an illness which kept me down for almost two years and which i still deal with..i have three other properties in loan mod limbo..i'm 60 this year and spent 20 years working my tail off..all my money was in real estate..pfffft...
i cry when i see families displaced..me, i'll bounce back although i didnt know it last year..thought i wouldn't make it thru the fear and humiliation...and the anger and all the work and money down the tubes..i was set..now, im broke...i try to help people..that makes me feel better and im not afraid of the truth of it..nothing and i mean nothing has been done to date to stop it...attempts, yes...but nothing effective

[DCBob]

40. I hear you..

good luck.

[TexasObserver]

22. Yes, they do.

If you don't understand trends by now, you never will.

I've already explained it to you in simple terms.

[MercutioATC]

28. I understand your explanation, I just don't agree with your premise.

I guess we'll have to disagree for now and see what happens.

[TexasObserver]

34. I don't deny that I factor my optimism into the equation.

I WANT the year to be a good one because I don't want to lose congress in November.

[TexasObserver]

10. Yes, it helps if one imagines a curve on a graph.

A decline from December, 2009 is real. An increase from last January, 2009 to January 2010 is interesting, but must be viewed in context. Last January, 2009, we were hardly 4 months into the economic crisis. Things didn't start falling apart until September of 2008. The foreclosures of January 2009 would not be expected to be as high as those from later in the year for that reason.

[DCBob]

15. Exactly..

Comparisons to last year are a bit misleading.

[Selatius]

11. The real problem is that the foreclosure rate is still higher than in January 2009.

Completed foreclosures are still up a considerable 31% from the same period last year, January 2009.

Saying it is 10% lower compared to December 2009 to January 2010 is missing the forest for the trees. You're better off looking at longer-term trends because short-term trends tend to fluctuate, sometimes wildly.

[TexasObserver]

14. Is it getting worse or getting better? It's getting better.

If a patient has a temperature of 104, they're improving when it drops to 103. They're not well, they're better by comparison.

This patient is sicker today than a year ago in January, but it is better than it was last month. By defining the operative time as one year instead of one month, you fail to see the trend.

[Selatius]

17. Yes, but wild fluctuations tend to give errant results if the timeframe is too short.

This is why lots of economists go by yearly trends or six-month rolling averages.

[TexasObserver]

24. I'm taking into account my accumulated knowledge of the market.

Since I know what the market is doing, I know that we likely bottomed out in 2009 on foreclosures. If others want to believe we haven't bottomed out, they may, but I believe we've bottomed out and will see fewer foreclosures in 2010 than in 2009.

We'll see. By August we'll know.

[xiamiam]

23. it is not getting better as nothing has been done to stop it..nt

[TexasObserver]

26. Yes, it is getting better.

That's why December foreclosures were lower than November's, and January's were lower than December.

[xiamiam]

29. nope...media hogwash..nt

[TexasObserver]

35. I do the math. The media is months behind me.

[xiamiam]

37. are you including short sales in your math?

and number of loan mods in limbo?

on edit..you cannot be including loan mods because in many cases they have not filed nods so you have no way of knowing how many are actually close to losing their home..no matter what you say

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

16. typo: "That's 15% fewer than a year earlier."

The LA Times messed up their headline (but not the article)... it's 15% higher

[DCBob]

41. More housing good news -- home prices beginning to stabilize...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Home prices rose in more than 40 percent of U.S. cities in the fourth quarter of last year, as massive federal spending helped the housing market show signs of stability.

The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that the median sales price for previously occupied homes rose in 67 out of 151 metropolitan areas in the October-December quarter versus a year ago. That's a sharp improvement from the third quarter, when prices rose in only 20 percent of cities.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Median-home-prices-show-signs-apf-1999843992.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

[babylonsister]

42. We don't want to hear no stinkin' good news around here.

:spank:

:hi:

[DCBob]

43. Yes, I noticed..

heheh.. :)