Iran projected to experience massive unrest next Sunday

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Iran braces for protests as 'up to 1m' attend funeral of reformist cleric

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/21/iran-ayatollah-montazeri-funeral-protests


Seldom has a country watched in slow motion as massive protests expected to attract more than a million protesters grinds down to a specific place and time.

Yesterday one of Iran's most famous and now dissident clerics died. Grand Ayatollah Hossein was one of the leaders of the Iranian revolution but became on of its greatest critics actually wishing it never happened. The 7 day rememberance ceremony will 'providentially' (in the view of many Iranians) fall on one of Irans holiest days.

From his wikipedia article

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hosein-Ali_Montazeri

One of the architects of the Iranian Revolution

In 1979, following the overthrow of the Shah, he played a pivotal role in instituting Iran's new constitution. He was one of the leaders of the movement to replace the democratic and secular draft constitution proposed for the Islamic Republic with one where the supervision of Islamic jurists were recognized. He distributed "a detailed commentary and alternate draft" for Iran's new constitution. It included proposals to specify that Twelver Shi'ism – and not Islam in general – was the official religion of the state and to state that Islamic jurists should appoint judges and have the right of veto over all laws and actions that are against the Islamic principles.<10> Later he served on the Assembly of Experts (Majles-e-Khobregan) that wrote the constitution and which implemented many of his proposals.<6>

During this time, Montazeri also served as Friday prayer leader of Qom, as a member of the Revolutionary Council and as deputy to Supreme Leader Khomeini. Khomeini began "to transfer some of his power" to Montazeri, in 1980. By 1983 "all government offices hung a small picture" of Montazeri next to that of Khomeini.


Breaking with Khomeini

As designated heir to Khomeini, Montazeri's troubles began with his association with Mehdi Hashemi who ran an organization out of Montazeri's office which sought to export the Islamic revolution. Hashemi is thought to have embarrassed Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani by leaking information of his connection with the Iran-Contra affair. Subsequently Hashemi was arrested, convicted and executed in 1987 on charges of counterrevolutionary activities.<15>

In November 1987 Montazeri created more controversy when he called for the legalization of political parties

Defiance against the regime

Montazeri again spoke out against Ahmadinejad on 16 June 2009, during the protests against his reelection. Ahmadinejad was controversially reelected as president after a closely contested and disputed election, which involved many candidates, but whose leading vote-getters were Ahmadinejad and former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi. The government reported that Ahmadinejad had won the election with 62 percent of the vote. Montazeri stated that "No one in their right mind can believe" the results were fairly counted.<35> Montazeri called for three days of public mourning for the death of Neda Agha-Soltan and others killed during the 22 June protests.<36> He further declared that the then current ruling regime was neither Islamic nor a republic.<37>

In November 2009, on the day before the 30th anniversary celebration of the Iran hostage crisis, Montazeri said that the occupation of the American embassy in 1979 had been a mistake.<38>

Demonstrations Yesterday
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/21/iran-ayatollah-montazeri-funeral-protests

Hundreds of thousand of mourners, many chanting anti-government slogans, gathered in the Iranian city of Qom for the funeral today of the leading reformist cleric Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri.

Defying a heavy presence of security forces, the funeral became a rallying point for further protests against the disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Pictures showed the defeated presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi among the mourners, after the opposition movement called for a national day of mourning.

There were reports of clashes after mourners chanted slogans against Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. YouTube footage showed huge crowds gathering in Qom and chants of pro-opposition slogans.

Government worries about Sundays commeration

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/21/iran-ayatollah-montazeri-funeral-protests

Montazeri's death could hardly have come at a worse time for Iran's Islamic regime, which has sought to isolate Mousavi and Karroubi as puppets of foreign "enemies". It came just three days into the Shia mourning month of Muharram, during which the opposition had already pledged to stage a series of demonstrations.

Worse still, the seventh day of his death ‑ a special mourning occasion in Shia Islam ‑ will coincide with next Sunday's Ashura ceremony, marking the martyrdom at Karbala of Hossein, Shia Islam's third imam, who is regarded as a symbol of struggle against oppressive rule.

Both the government and the opposition had identified this year's Ashura event as a potential flashpoint even before Montazeri's death. The ceremony has a central place in Iran's revolutionary folklore. Ashura demonstrations against the shah in 1978 are widely thought to have played a pivotal role in toppling the former monarch's regime.

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