Quietly, while nobody was looking, Health Care Reform became a fait accompli

[scheming daemons]

In August, it was assumed that Health Care Reform was on life support. That a repeat of 1994 was in the offing. That reform efforts would die in congress.

Remember how the rightwing was celebrating how the Town Halls had turned public opinion against reform?



But notice the tone in Washington now. It's going to happen. It's even going to have a Public Option, though we don't yet know how robust it will be.


Behind the scenes, support has continued to grow in the Senate for a fairly strong Public Option. The Baucus Bill doesn't have it, but the House bill most certainly will.

...and the House and Senate bills will have to be reconciled in Committee. And that committee will have House members who are strongly for the P.O., and Senate members which are, by current whip counts about 54 to 56 members in favor of a P.O.

So... the reconciled bill has a STRONG chance of having a P.O. in it. At that point, even though some blue dog Democrats will vote against the bill, they will vote for closure to avoid a filibuster and allow the bill to come up for a vote.

And then it will get roughly 54 Democrats and pass.



And Obama and the Democrats get a *BIG* win going into the 2010 election year.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I like how you think...

yes INDEED.


K&R


:patriot:

[sharp_stick]

2. As long as the blue dogs vote for cloture

I'm all for it. I don't care if they vote against the bill.

[AlinPA]

8. It's hard to get a reading on whether the Senate "BlueCross Democrats" will support a cloture vote.

It certainly is not a sure thing.

[wiggs]

28. It would be a huge problem with leadership if any dem voted against cloture. Not

sure it's happened when leadership really wants a vote. Voting against your party on procedural votes is a problem....voting against your party on the actual issue happens all the time.

I suspect that if dems vote against cloture it's because leadership wants it that way.

[Jennicut]

3. The thing is the town hall protesters were such a small #, not even all the

Repubs out there, just the extreme of the extremists. And the media gave them tons of attention.

[rudy23]

4. How is anything but a robust public option a "big win?" Kind of a key point, huh?

What will any of the other bills do to help reform healthcare?

Looks to me like they're just renaming a watered down bill "a public option" and trying to convince us that it's the same as THE public option that would create a large enough pool to leverage the cost down.

If they try to pass off one of these other bills as "the public option" they are going to have a meltdown on their hands--especially if mandates are in the final bill. They will be insulting every one of us who donated time and money during the primaries and general election to see Obama deliver on his promise of "hope" and "change" from letting lobbyists write the laws in DC.

[sandnsea]

5. If we can get the finance bill out of committee

without any more ignorance and grandstanding.

[SIMPLYB1980]

6. That's the way I see it to,

but don't worry I'm sure this post will get it's share of fail pushers.

[scheming daemons]

7. See post #4

From a serial fail pusher.

[rudy23]

9. Let's make a little gentleman's bet. I bet the public option won't pass without triggers or

apart from the idea of "an Exchange" And you will be on here touting it as a victory for "us."

Care to take me up on that?

If I'm wrong, I'll write "Scheming Daemons was right and I was wrong---Obama DID deliver on healthcare reform" in my sig for two months. It'll be the happiest bet I ever lost if I lose it.

If not, you can write, "I am a Kool-Aid drinking, blind follower of Obama, and I was duped."

[scheming daemons]

14. Here's the bet I'll make

If the final bill on Obama's desk.. the one he signs... has a public option in it with NO triggers.... I win.

...even if the Public Option doesn't kick in until 2013 (delaying the start is not a "trigger"). We've waited nearly 100 years for Health Care Insurance Reform, and waiting an additional 4 more is *NOT* a "FAIL" by any stretch.

If there is a Public Option... yes, even as part of an exchange... in which any Americans without insurance can buy in... how is that *NOT* a win?

Considering where we've been for the past 100 years, a P.O. that insurance-less Americans can buy into is most DEFINITELY a win. It would be the single-biggest progressive change in Health Insurance in this country since the advent of Medicare.


I have no doubt that you will define it as a "failure"... and that is because in your mind anything short of a full single-payer system with absolutely ZERO insurance companies still in existence would be a "failure".

But since it is your mission in life to bash Obama, it's no wonder that you've created a scenario in which it is impossible for any legislation to pass that is acceptable to you. You've moved the goalposts out of the stadium.

It's impossible for you to lose your version of the bet as outlined by you... because unless we have Canadian-style single-payer on January 1, 2010.... you'll call it a failure.

[rudy23]

23. Well, there's our difference. A public option for a few % of Americans is an epic FAIL

How would it be big enough to have enough insurers to drive down the cost of private insurance?

See, this is the kind of "pee on my head, tell me that it's raining" strategies that are going to get our butts kicked in '10 and '12.

No bet. Yes, a public option that's off limits to those of us who are forced to take our employers crappy insurance is an epic failure. In that case, you'd be redefining the public option.

Prepare to face a major backlash from everyone who is paying attention if you think you can pass off a renamed public option as the real thing.

[SIMPLYB1980]

10. Yeah I stoped reading that post at

"Big Win"

[alc]

11. one correction

It's health Insurance reform, not health Care reform.

We could end up with a PO (for X% of the population after 2013) that no doctor will take but mandates (next year) to buy it or something more expensive, and drug costs going up, and other costs going up. If there are mandates or advantages to private insurers and pharma next year but no PO until 2013 it will be a *BIG* loss in 2010.

It's also possible that insurance reform forces health care reform in good ways. Don't get distracted by seeing "PO" in the bill - keep an eye on the complete result.

[LaPera]

12. Fight for a STRONG Public Option!

Email - Call - Donate - Write - Protest until we get ma strong public option and ultimately single payer!

[Romulox]

13. What you mean is that a consensus if forming around forcing people to buy private insurance

With a "public option" that most people are not eligible to join. :hi:

[scheming daemons]

15. You'll see....

... but continue your bash agenda.

[Romulox]

16. "You'll see"? What are you, 6? nt

[scheming daemons]

19. I already made my answer to your snark in the OP... no use repeating it again

So yes.... you'll see.


...and I'm 100% sure that when the bill passes... and it has a Public Option... you either A) will mysteriously not be around here for a while or B) redefining what is in the bill in order to bash it.

[Romulox]

20. It's not "snark"--it's the UNVARNISHED truth.

And your argument is manipulative--you're talking about a "Public Option" that you know very well isn't going to be open to the public.

But as long as the bill contains ANYTHING that is characterized as a "public option", you get to congratulate yourself? It's silly. :silly:

[rudy23]

25. I'm 100% sure that "public option" won't be available to more than 90% of us!

WHEEEEEE! BIG WIN!

[theophilus]

35. Well, 90% is a pretty good start, isn't it? n/t

[rudy23]

38. No, that's 10% And I'm being generous. Some estimates say 5%.

So if we had bad insurance in our jobs, we would not be eligible for it. Not only would we not be eligible, but our ineligibility (along with the other 90+% of Americans) would make the group of publicly insured too small to drive down the cost of private insurance.

[JVS]

17. Yup. The only thing necessary to make healthcare reform a reality was propose a plan so awful...

that Obama ran against it in the primaries.

[Romulox]

21. Much easier to redefine the word "public" than to provide medical care to everyone, I guess.

:shrug:

[JVS]

22. So the next step is to wait for the insurance companies to decide just how poor and sick you have...

to be for them not to be able to fleece you, and re-label their reject bin the public option.

Mission Accomplished!

[rudy23]

24. Bingo. You should make that an OP. That;'s the essence of what Dems are doing to us .

Do they think we're that stupid?

[BlooInBloo]

18. Hey! I said that yesterday!

:P

[Fire1]

32. Indeed, you did. n/t

[subcomhd]

26. As much as I hate to say it, that will piss some DUers off. We can never celebrate ANY victory.

[rudy23]

27. I like how STRONG is in all caps right next to Public Option with "chance of"

stubbornly wedged in between.

I'm sure we'll see a ROBUST lie about the public option in the coming days.

[Barack_America]

29. And when people were paying attention to health care, Sotomayor and student loan reform...

...snuck through.

I'm thinking the Obama WH is more adept at manipulating the media than they are given credit for.

[BlooInBloo]

33. Heh.

[Peacetrain]

30. Absolutely...

:patriot:

[DireStrike]

31. If this happens, it increases Obama's "chess player" reputation considerably

I tend to hate the "chess player" meme, and find it ridiculous. But it may be an electoral strategy. Call it the congressional crane kick. Downplay all hope for success on an issue that is fairly assured and easy to pass... so when it does pass, you look like a miracle worker.

Of course this would mean that Obama's top priority is making himself look good, rather than getting the best bill. We could have had strong inroads towards single payer, if the president had come out swinging for it.

As long as we get a public option, emphasis on both words, I guess it's ok for the time being.

[rudy23]

39. As someone who takes his own pieces of the board?

Which chess match have you been watching?

[nashville_brook]

34. you know, some people are interested in more than *political* "BIG WINS"

some people actually need real change -- the kind we were promised. that you can be so slap happy with political outcomes as opposed to real outcomes is creepy. that you're so eager to attack fellow dems who are fighting for real change is even creepier.

[bvar22]

36. "Creepy" is the right word. +1

The ONLY thing we know for sure at this point is that no matter which plan gets passed, it WILL be a BILLION dollar bonanza for the For Profit Health Insurance Industry.
(maybe that is why it has a handful of hardcore supporters at DU?)

NONE of the plans so far include a Government administered, Publicly Owned Plan ("like Medicare") that will be available to anyone who wants it.

The MOST Liberal Plan (HR 3200) contains a "Public Option" that will be limited to only those currently without Health Insurance (already dropped for Pre-Existing Conditions or too poor to afford Health Insurance). It will NOT be "government run" (like "Medicare"), but will be run by a private corporation composed of at least partially, but possibly totally, of the For Profit Health Insurance Corps.

It will NOT be able to offer ANY of the administrative cost advantages of a government run program.
The cost savings of the "Public Option" in HR 3200 will be so small (or none) that the CBO projects (and Obama agrees) that 4 out of 5 people FORCED to buy Health Insurance from "The Exchange" will buy it from a For Profit.

[Cha]

37. We've come such a long long way..

since the teabaggers were sent out en masse to disrupt and destroy.