Gun Possession In An Assault Makes Being Shot 4.5 Times More Likely -- Not Much Protection

[steven johnson]

There is the urban myth that gun possession makes the gun bearer safer. Apparently this is not the case in assaults. A New England Journal of Medicine epidemiological study found that a study in the New England Journal of Medicine had found that"> owning a gun increases a person's risk of being murdered by 2.7 times.

The best way to deal with assaults is to avoid them by being prudent rather than armed. Caveat proeliator.

In a first-of its-kind study, epidemiologists at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine found that, on average, guns did not protect those who possessed them from being shot in an assault. The study estimated that people with a gun were 4.5 times more likely to be shot in an assault than those not possessing a gun.

“This study helps resolve the long-standing debate about whether guns are protective or perilous,” notes study author Charles C. Branas, PhD, Associate Professor of Epidemiology. “Will possessing a firearm always safeguard against harm or will it promote a false sense of security?”

What Penn researchers found was alarming – almost five Philadelphians were shot every day over the course of the study and about 1 of these 5 people died. The research team concluded that, although successful defensive gun uses are possible and do occur each year, the chances of success are low. People should rethink their possession of guns or, at least, understand that regular possession necessitates careful safety countermeasures, write the authors. Suggestions to the contrary, especially for urban residents who may see gun possession as a defense against a dangerous environment should be discussed and thoughtfully reconsidered.

A 2005 National Academy of Science report concluded that we continue to know very little about the impact of gun possession on homicide or the utility of guns for self-defense. Past studies had explored the relationship between homicides and having a gun in the home, purchasing a gun, or owning a gun. These studies, unlike the Penn study, did not address the risk or protection that having a gun might create for a person at the time of a shooting.

Protection Or Peril? Gun Possession Of Questionable Value In An Assault, Study Finds

[TheCowsCameHome]

1. Uh-oh. Better call you-know -who.

I'll be making the popcorn.

:popcorn:

[rrneck]

2. Previous thread...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=118&topic_id=256837&mesg_id=256837

[L0oniX]

3. Whatever ...pffft ...this belongs in the gungeon where it can die like it should.

[Fresh_Start]

4. Its like abstinence education instead of sex education

the facts don't matter as much as their beliefs.

Guns = protection
Abstinence education = teenagers won't have sex

Pregnancy and STD rates don't matter compared to the beliefs
These statistics and the statistics that show that the gun is more likely used to harm a family member (including suicide) than to harm an intruder

[paulsby]

14. that's correct, but misses the point

the VAST majority of defensive gun uses don't involve ANY HARM .

so, if you cherrypick, gun incidents WITH shots fired, it skews the results.

defensive uses of guns are almost always a "no shots fired incident"

therefore, even if we ignore other aspects that are problematic, your point doesn't address the issue - whether carrying a gun can enable you to fend off an attack.

also, defensive uses of guns frequently don't make it into criminal justice stats. i've had one (off duty) and it never made it into police , blotter. many if not most, don't

[madeline_con]

5. " Caveat proeliator." Good advice.

"The best way to deal with assaults is to avoid them by being prudent rather than armed. Caveat proeliator."

Some things are unavoidable, like being in the real world from time to time. Those in the study who were found to be carrying a gun at the time they were shot carried it because of the possibility of being the victim of a crime in the area or situation they had to be in at the time. The fact that they carried did not invite their assaults. The study is more than a little skewed.

[Swamp Rat]

6. "The fact that they carried did not invite their assaults."

Not in the "Wild West'. :D :hi:

[Travis_0004]

7. I would like to see more data on this

Just the results themselves don't necessarly mean anything.

If somebody shows up to a gang fight, there is a high chance they are getting shot weather they have a gun or not, and perhaps shootings between gangs are rasing that number.

Maybe the average home owner protecting themselves (who tend to have quite an advantage, sometimes more firepower (shotgun vs handgun), and they know the layout of their own house) would be safer with a gun.

It would be interesting to see what factors were considered and what factors were thrown out otherwise my theory is impossible to improve. If somebody breaks into my house, I'll be armed.

[Swamp Rat]

8. Maybe we can invent a time machine and go get some new data.

See you in the 19th century. :hi:

[RamboLiberal]

9. Yeah doing the study in Philly where there is a high incidence

of gang shootings really flaws this study. This one is pure BS. A lot of this is criminal on criminal violence with illegally carried guns.

[divideandconquer]

12. Throw in the fact that guns are one of the most stolen items as another factor

Rate of gun theft tracks pace of crime

The rate of gun theft in a state closely parallels its crime rate, according to the Americans for Gun Safety Foundation.

But the study found that the number of gun thefts declined from 1993 through August 2002 as states and cities strengthened gun control laws and firearms registration.

The nonprofit found 1.7 million gun thefts nationwide over the past decade, but the ratio of population to gun thefts in a state was more telling than the actual number.

Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia and New Mexico were the leaders with gun thefts twice as high as the national average of 16.8 per thousand households.
States with the highest theft rates share common traits such as a large number of gun owners, high crime rates and no laws requiring safe storage of guns in homes.

------------------------------
<http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3985/is_200212/ai_n9160492/>

[JackRiddler]

10. No! Freedom loving gun owners always draw faster than criminals!

[DavidDvorkin]

11. Possession also inclines the gun owner toward denial.

[Speck Tater]

13. Correlation is not necessarily causation.

It could be the case that the type of personality that is prone to buying and carrying guns is also the type of personality that takes unnecessary risks, or who places himself in dangerous situations, or tends to choose unstable friends and then to provoke dangerous responses from them.

I suspect it's more of a "lifestyle" or personality issue than an owning-gun-causes-getting-shot issue.

[Hoopla Phil]

15. This "study" has already been picked apart as a fabrication.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=118x256837

one of the best peaces of information that was gleened out of the "study" was this post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=118x256837#257250

Taitertots (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Fri Oct-02-09 12:14 PM
Response to Original message
66. Total Fail!

Anyone who defends themselves with a gun is not part of the study. They randomly selected 677 people who have already been shot. If you used a gun to defend yourself you are NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. They don't even attempt to differentiate between legal and illegally carried guns.

[TheWraith]

16. A BS study, I'm afraid.

They don't account for instances were an assault was prevented. And as a result they disproportionately examined gang violence cases where all parties are likely to be armed at all times. For non-gang members, the Department of Justice's own statistics reflect quite the opposite, that a person resisting a violent crime with a firearm is much less likely to be injured than resisting with a knife, without a weapon, or even not resisting.

[upi402]

17. Does someone have a link to the DOJ stats here?

I'd like to look them over.

[TheKentuckian]

18. I'll take my chances. They are better than the wild eyed hope that a cop will save me.

If you believe differently then do what you feel.

[texasleo]

19. Street trash who carry guns are more likely to get shot. There's a shocker.