NOAA now expects quieter hurricane season

[babylonsister]

NOAA now expects quieter hurricane season

BY CURTIS MORGAN
[email protected]


El Niño should knock some of the wind out of the sails of the 2009 hurricane season, federal forecasters predicted Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reduced its prediction for named storms by nearly a quarter but cautioned that the so-far snoozing tropics would still likely waken and churn up a near-normal number of storms.

``By no means, do we expect the season to be dead,'' said Gerry Bell, who is the lead seasonal forecaster for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The new ``likely'' range -- calculated at a 70 percent chance -- is seven to 11 named storms, with three to six becoming hurricanes. Of those, one to two are expected to turn into major storms with Category 3 winds of 111 miles per hour or higher.

NOAA's initial annual forecast, issued in May, called for nine to 14 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. An average hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, produces 11 storms.

Forecasters don't consider this year's sedate start, with only a single depression since June, a reliable indicator of how the next few peak months will shape up. But they do put stock in the emergence of El Niño, which formed rapidly in June and seems likely to strengthen through fall.

more...

http://www.miamiherald.com/1460/story/1173921.html

[graywarrior]

1. Ever since I've left Florida it's been quiet there.

[SeeHopeWin]

2. All it takes is one storm, a big storm...

I live here in South Florida, don't like these reports too much.

[soothsayer]

3. No duh ! Now that it is more than half over and no storms?

Wait until you see my prediction in December about how quiet it was in 2009. You will be amazed!