Adm Joe Sestak is rumored to be planning a run against Spector for PA Senate seat.

[Stinky The Clown]

Matthews just announced this on his Hairballz show.

What do you think about this?

I thinks its great. I think Arlen sucks. I think the administration erred in promising support to Specter.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

1. He'll win -

PA loves Sestak. He's far more One Of Theirs than Arlen ever was. Arlen's Philadelphia - Joe's all of PA.

I think he'll win. Do you?

[LynneSin]

7. How? He has no name recognition outside the Philly area

And the Philly area also loves Specter, which is the hometown guy. Specter has appeal across the entire state.

So consider the concept that Philly will pretty much be a wash in this election since both are Philly candidates - it comes down to whomever has the greatest appeal with the rest of the state and Sestak does not have that. What would be smart is a democratic candidate running from the Pittsburgh area - if anyone could pull an upset THAT would be the candidate I bet my money with. Especially if that is the only Pittsburgh area candidate running, he/she would not have to split the votes.

If anyone would run I was hoping it would have been Allyson Scwhwartz - she's a better fundraiser than Sestak because the Emily's List folks love Schwartz. But if she runs along with Sestak and Specter than she's just going to make it worse.

[Yupster]

16. My guess

is Arlen doesn't make it to the primary.

He discovers that he hasn't been spending enough time with his family and retires.

[eleny]

2. Where do I send a check?

[SoCalDem]

3. He said he was going to back when Specter jumped ship. I hope he wins

Arlen needs to go home & stay there.

[RamboLiberal]

4. EMail I got from Sestak today

You are one of my ardent supporters and I wanted you to know that tomorrow morning, Tuesday, August 4th, 2009 at 8:30 a.m., I will be making a major campaign announcement.

This announcement will take place at the Herbert W. Best VFW Post located at 1805 MacDade Boulevard, Folsom, PA 19033. While I doubt that you will be in the area, I wanted you to be aware of it, just in case. (If you do happen to be in the area, please let me know if you are able to attend by responding to this email; we are asking people to arrive at 7:45AM.) See Google Map.

We will also be providing a live webcast beginning tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. at Live.JoeSestak.com (I will begin speaking at approximately 8:45 a.m.).

There are probably many others you know ... family, friends, classmates, neighbors, associates, colleagues ... that might also like to hear what I will announce, but I do not have their e-mails to advise them of this announcement/live-feed. By forwarding this e-mail onto them, you may ensure that they will hear what this announcement is.

You can also share your thoughts on my Facebook Page as well as by signing-up to follow on my Twitter account.

And, to keep up on the news, please go to JoeSestak.com and fill-out the e-mail sign-up form. It's one of the best ways to be in contact.

I look forward to speaking with you tomorrow.
Warmly,

Joe Sestak

[Pirate Smile]

5. This is keeping pressure on Specter to vote with the Dems, like a Dem.

Competition to be the bigger Democrat. It would be lovely if people like Ben Nelson had some similar pressure but, I guess, NE isn't Penn. grrrr.

[LynneSin]

8. He's been 97% sofar which is much better than many of those bluedog dems

Just saying

[Stinky The Clown]

9. Hey Lynne .....

.... I am ****not**** trying to start something or be snarky.

Do you support Specter or is it more about party unity? It seems to that the two men are not all that far apart on issues.

[LynneSin]

14. I think either will be a good candidate for Senator

I've worked on Joe Sestak's campaign for 2 seasons AND I once voted for Arlen Specter back in the late 80s.

I think either candidate will do a great job at being senator and I think either one of them will easily defeat Pat Toomey in the fall.

But when people think that Joe Sestak can win Pennsylvania, it seems like it's coming from people who don't understand the state of Pennsylvania. If you go to Pittsburgh and ask the average person on the street if they know who Joe Sestak is - most won't know him. But they will all know Arlen Specter.

If Arlen Specter was from any other Pennsylvania town outside the Philadelphia region, I think Joe Sestak could beat him. Lately the secret to winning Pennsylvania is getting strong voter turn out in the largest city to overtake the red state mentality in the middle of the state. Pittsburgh goes blue but not as dark blue as Philadelphia does (Philly was 80% Obama in 2008).

But Arlen is from Philadelphia. He lives in the city and you'll see him around the city all the time. He regularly calls into the popular AM Sports radio station and he's a big Eagles fan. Joe Sestak is too but you see the problem here - You now have 2 people splitting the vote in Philadelphia. So the winner in the primaries is going to be the one that can get the most votes outside of Philadelphia (provided that another Dem candidate from outside Philly doesn't run - like a democrat from Pittsburgh). Also, Specter is from Philadelphia and Sestak is only from the suburbs.

Back in 2000, Rick Santorum was primetime easy pickings for the democrats. Rick wasn't that popular and we just needed a decent candidate to run against him. EVERY democrat with some name recognition ran in the democratic primary including TWO Philly Area candidates. Those 2 philly candidates split the votes and we ended up with some obscure state senator from the middle of nowhere as our candidate. That candidate had NO money to run against campaign cash rich Rick Santorum AND that democrat decided he could win Pennsylvania without Philadelphia, so he ran no ads in the city until the last minute all the while Rick Santorum is slaughtering the democrat mercilessly on the Philly TV & Radio stations.

Rick won, but not by much. Perhaps if that democrat put more effort into Philadelphia we could have gotten rid of Rick in 2000. And my point is, the best candidate for upsetting Arlen in the 2010 dem primaries is probably going to be a non-Philly candidate, preferably one from Pittsburgh.

I live in Delaware but normally campaign in Pennsylvania, where we can make more impact. I probably won't help either candidate for this primary race but if we don't have a hot race in DE, then I'll help out in Philly on election day in 2010.

[Stinky The Clown]

15. Thanks for that .....

.... my eyes are open a bit wider as a result.

I still like Sestak and dislike Arlen, but you made the calculus clearer.

Grazie!

[LynneSin]

17. If anything - those who support Sestak will know where the battle is going to happen

Either candidate is fine with me. I guess I just worked too many elections in Pennsylvania to the point I can pretty much predict how things will work out. But who knows, I am known to be wrong too.

[AlinPA]

6. It will be a grueling campaign. Specter can't keep up with him. Also, a lot of Democrats

do not trust Specter, they know he switched just for the election. People I speak with think he would switch right back to the GOP if he wins. I agree with them.

[eleny]

10. Can they switch so fast? I thought there was a time set for that in years

But if he could switch back, by law, then all the more reason to support Sestak.

I live in Colorado but Sestak is the first non-stater I'll send support. I'm sure not happy about our Sen. Bennet, the appointee.

[AlinPA]

12. I never heard of a time limit for a senator to switch parties. Maybe there is one.

[eleny]

13. Well, heck - start the rumor that Specter will switch!

:D

[Captain Hilts]

11. Way to go, Admiral Joe!