Robert Reich: 'When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.'

[Newsjock]

The so-called "green shoots" of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. On one side are the V-shapers who look back at prior recessions and conclude that the faster an economy drops, the faster it gets back on track. And because this economy fell off a cliff late last fall, they expect it to roar to life early next year. Hence the V shape.

... Problem is, consumers won't start spending until they have money in their pockets and feel reasonably secure. But they don't have the money, and it's hard to see where it will come from. They can't borrow. Their homes are worth a fraction of what they were before, so say goodbye to home equity loans and refinancings. One out of ten home owners is under water -- owing more on their homes than their homes are worth. Unemployment continues to rise, and number of hours at work continues to drop. Those who can are saving. Those who can't are hunkering down, as they must.

... My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained.

The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.

Read more: http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robert_reich/2009/07/when-will-the-recovery-begin-n.php?ref=fpblg

[FLAprogressive]

1. K&R

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

2. A new economy that is going to take some bold moves to uncover

like a minimum wage that is a living wage and tied to inflation

like re-regulation of utilities

like single payer healthcare

like limits on executive compensation

like some real green industries


Going to take some strong leadership that is willing to move beyond fake bi-partisanship with a bunch of cranky old white men who want to protect the status quo.

[JDPriestly]

46. like a shorter work week

like more government jobs

like lots more hungry people

like lots more welfare and government hand-outs and to people who never thought they would ever accept them much less really, really need them.

Face it. Our whole world is being turned upside down. We are in an economic revolution. It's not a revolution that any of us has chosen to wage. It is a revolution that is being waged on us, meaning us humans in general.

The relationships between capital, labor, information and raw materials are being redefined at a breathtaking speed. No one is able to keep up with the changes.

It's as if we are on bicycles racing down a steep hill. We have lost control. Our feet are no longer on the pedals. We are just holding on for dear life trying not to fall off. The old rules don't work anymore.

The whole concept of investment, stock exchanges, currency valuations is flying out the window.

It's like the invention of the printing press. New religions, new economic theories, new ways of organizing everything from our personal sock drawers to international war are about to emerge. Our economy is self-destructing. Something new will come out of it just as it did when feudalism ran its course and could no longer compete against capitalism.

Time will tell.

[rainy]

90. Woah!!!! what a fabulous description. nt

[loudsue]

99. You hit the nail on the head.

It's going to be a whole new world. I hope the change can be peaceful, but I doubt the "haves" are going to give much away to the "have-nots" without a fight.

[Serial Mom]

108. Spelled out clearly! Scary in some ways... n/t

[elocs]

58. I hate to say this, but bold moves don't seem to be what Obama is about.

Talking about bold moves does seem to be his strong point.

[Raksha]

113. No, bold moves aren't Obama's strong point,

but pretty soon it may be obvious to him that he doesn't have a choice...no more than the rest of us do.

[jwirr]

68. Like localization.

[davidwparker]

114. +1

[RaleighNCDUer]

70. Yep. What we have here is an opportunity.

Things like these will never happen if the economy is rolling along, however bumpily. Now's the time to say 'That is what was - THIS is what will be'.

[Mari333]

3. as long as jobs are outsourced every day and no one is held accountable and

as long as we continue to pay for 2 ridiculous occupations in other countries, we are pretty much fcked.

[OhioChick]

31. Bingo. n/t

[HughBeaumont]

52. And this guy cheer-led the job offshoring during Bewsh and Clinton's reigns.

http://www.zazona.com/shameh1b/MediaClips.htm

'bout halfway down the page, the truth is revealed about this joker (dial-up is the faster load). Free Trade is a moldy bill of Reaganite goods that needs to be put to bed once and for all.

[Mari333]

56. wow..thanks for that page ..bookmark

Reich is now bemoaning what he was a part of causing.

[zbdent]

4. X

[Ron Green]

5. This book is essential to the discussion of a real future:

The Agenda for a New Economy by David Korten. Highly recommended.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

22. Roubini and Kunstler too

scary yet necessary info...

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/

[snappyturtle]

77. Thanks for the links. Here's an excerpt of an article by Kunstler:

http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/07/the-free-and-the-dead.html#more

For those still capable of paying attention to our national predicament, the questions are: what happens from here... and how does it happen?

Over the last ten days, somebody shot the "Green Shoots" narrative in the head. There is no way the American economy can re-expand. This is a debt deflation like unto nothing the world has ever seen before. We've entered the really painful zone of the "work-out" where insolvency can no longer be denied. Things will be heard crashing every day -- enterprises, households, assets, institutions, prospects, deals. No amount of stimulus, first, second, or beyond, will avail to stop this process.

President Obama had better turn his efforts from pretending to re-start the revolving credit rackets to overseeing the comprehensive re-simplifying of American life. I think he has a few weeks to turn his rhetoric around before the political mischief begins for real, and the aggrieved classes start shooting things up and burning things down. These classes really do need something to hope for, and something to work at, and something to occupy their attention besides their grief over the massive losses in their lives. But none of that energy will be focused beneficially unless they hear the truth... that there really is no going back to what was before.

It's also vitally important to commence public hearings and official investigations of those who committed real crimes and malfeasances. Bernie Madoff has been salted away for two and a half lifetimes, but Henry Paulson is still at large after overseeing the creation of the biggest heap of fraudulent securities the world has ever known -- and then betting against them in the swaps market, in effect shorting his own swindle -- not to mention his misdeeds at the US Department of the Treasury. Why are those other Wall Street smoothies still enjoying their Hamptons villas while the foreclosed set up tents in the Sacramento Delta? Why are the government officials who failed so miserably at regulation still enjoying their salaries, perqs, and pensions while those not employed by a bloated government struggle to stay alive another week.

[Myrina]

95. I would love to be able to K&R this post.

:applause: Scary, but brilliant.

[jwirr]

69. Another good book is "Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial

Revolution" by Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins.

[Hydra]

6. "All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before"

Truer words...I hate how all of the people at the top keep talking about going back to how things were before. We can't do that. They sucked us dry and then they did it again. There's no more blood in the corpse.

[bvar22]

7. The "New Economy" will resemble the Gilded Age.

...A very small and very rich Ownership Class....and all the rest of us who will be competing with slave labor in 3rd World Countries.

It will remain so until we have a Political Party that represents Working Americans, and even then it will take a generation to undo all the damage that the Republicans and "Centrist" Democrats have managed to inflict over the last 40 years.

[Swamp Rat]

15. k&r

[bvar22]

23. The destruction of the Working Class has been a "bi-partisan" effort

NOW we have Your Children’s Money too !!!
And there is not a fucking thing you can do about it!
Now THIS is “Bi-Partisanship” !
Better get used to it!!
Hahahahahahahahaha!

[Swamp Rat]

88. Dat's about da size of it.

[jwirr]

73. My cynical side tells me you are right and then I thought "but that is

what we have right now and it is falling to pieces." This thing we have right now may work for the rich for a while but the truth is that if we cannot buy their junk made in the 3rd world they will no longer make money and then they will have to start using their capital. That hurts!

Also as we get more of the effects of oil depletion it will not be so easy or cheap to transport all those goodies - that will also hurt!

Then their personal safety will not be so cheap in an angry society as it has been in the past - just ask the Saudi Arabians. They need whole armies to keep them safe from their angry citizens. That will hurt!

The rich are not going to have the great haven they think they are building by ripping the people off in their bailouts because they are not going to be untouched. France and Russia both can testify to the fact that it is dangerous to be the rich in a revolution.

[PreacherCasey]

78. That's when the police state, i.e. domestic surveillance & repeal of Posse Comitatus under NORTHCOM

comes in.

[jwirr]

84. That of course is the fear. I think we should watch the Iranian people

closely. They may be teaching us how!

[pokercat999]

87. I agree.

In the long run the problem for the rich and ultra rich is not that they will stop adding to their wealth or even that they will actually start to see their wealth decline. The real problem is that the middle-class pushed into the lower-poorer class will TAKE their money. It's millions against a few and when your brother, uncle, cousin, dad, mom or sister in the military sees his family in serious trouble how will they respond? Will they enforce unjust laws against starving family members for the benefit of the rich and powerful elite?

I was under the impression that the Saudi's shared enough of their wealth to hold their population in check. Is their an actual under class of any size in Saudi Arabia that are actual citizens?

[MadHound]

80. Looking at the numbers, we're already in the new Gilded Age

It started under Clinton, when the gap between the rich and the rest of us reached record breaking proportions. This is also when we started seeing the return of bubble economies, the rise and crash of the tech bubble, now followed by the rise and fall of the housing bubble, and so on.

What we're seeing occur now is the dismantling of the last of the New Deal economy, and the first of many serious stresses being put on our society such that the middle class will be essentially destroyed.

And much like the first Gilded Age, it really doesn't matter if the president or Congress has a D or R behind their names, corporate America is the one ruling the roost and reaping the profits.

[wurzel]

111. It started under Reagan and his tax cuts. Changed behavior.

When taxes were at 75% there was no point in giving million dollar bonuses. So they didn't. When taxes dropped to 25% it was worth giving those huge bonuses. So they did.

[OwnedByFerrets]

92. And we wont have a Party that represents the Working Americans

until lobbyists are outlawed and we have public campaign financing. Neither of those are likely to happen, so, in essence, we are royally screwed.

[OHdem10]

8. An economist on C.Rose the other night put it very succinctly.

"We will be a much poorer nation." when we finally get through
this globalization crisis.

This is no usual recession.

[abumbyanyothername]

9. I think some people know, and they explain it pretty well

even if their ideas seem a little over the top.

Google technocracy.

Essentially the idea is that as knowledge combined with energy (essentially the harnessing of energy through knowledge) proceeds, the whole price based economy is doomed because products have lower and lower human inputs. More and more can be produced, but because no one needs to work to produce it, no one earns a wage and therefore there is no one to consume it.

And that is exactly where we are now -- a vast overabundance of both products and productive capacity and a vast dearth of consumptive force.

Their answer? Divide the total daily produce (in the form of credits, not unlike money) amongst the population living between the North Pole and Panama on a daily basis. There would be no need to save, or finance anything, or provide any (additional) social security or anything like that.

They are not advocating for this system. They are predicting that the price system will eventually collapse because it must (their view, which I share, is that it is unsustainable without periodic war to destroy productive capacity and artificially recreate conditions of scarcity).

[truedelphi]

33. Is your real name Doug Rushkoff or something?

Rushkoff had this great theory in the early nineties that since the new technologies would be so vastly superior to anything else the human race had ever seen, we would all be sitting at the beach six days a week, drinking Mai Tias while our gvoernment was sending us direct depostits to our bank accounts.

The problem turned out to be that instead of the Rushkoff theory of work and income reality, the new technologies of email, fax and internet allows for Pakistanis to handle the IRS paperwork, the medical paper work, the tech calls etc.

And we become a nation without jobs.

[Grinchie]

47. You missed one simple part of the equation

With increased efficiency, in a real world, the amount of labor decreases, and so should prices for everything. We are not seeing this, and this is readily apparent when you look at how mutated the Consumer Price Index is. They have been jiggering the way it has been calculated consistently for the plast 40 years, but it really took off under Reagan, Bush and Clinton.

The reason they did this is to hide the 15% to 20% inflantion we experience in the real world, in order to cheat the people on social security from appropriate cost of Living Adjusments. It affect Goverment employees, and well as Military pay, along with per diem, etc..

So wa have this marvelous, much publicized "Productivity", yet wages remain flat or they deflate. Instead of more leisure time, we have both parents working, and the kids subjected to metal detectors and authoritarian indoctrination in schools, while at the same time they are left to duke it out in a social environment similar to the "Lord of the Flies". Survival of the fittest, training the future generations to be superficial, utterly competitive, and dismally stupid.

Nobody has time after slaving in the rat race every day, so they don't educate themselves, and barely have enough energy for the weekend, where they mimic what they see of Fox News, by going shopping, or taking the Hummer out for a spin.

As far as the abundance of products, I hate to break it to you, but it you were to go searching for items of true value and functionailty, you would be very disappointed. All of it is for show, and most people just take it for granted that a tool will do what it looks like it should do. They don't even know how to inspect the tools they buy. They are defective in 90 percent of the cases, either through design or shoddy material and manufacturing. That hammer with the Nike show plastic trim is unbalanced and would cause injury if you used it to drive nails for an our. The spade you buy for the garden has the angle all wrong, so it's basically useless unless you want to strain your back.

To drill a hole, without power tools or a cordless, I challenge you to find a bit brace that has a decent chuck, or even find on at all.

No, you must buy a cordless or a power drill. If you need to bore Big holes, sorry pall, you'll need a generator. No more will you find a tee handle auger in america, unless it's at a yard or estate sale, if your lucky.

I have a huge selection of Planes, axes and chisels that cost me almost nothing but some elbow grease to take the rust off. They are twice as old as I am, and are more honorable, and more sophisticated than any piece of shit tool you can find in Home Depot or Sears.

This is the problem. The products are made for Quantity, not Quality, and this is what people are finally realizing. The the deflationary event, people are realizing that they need to buy things that will last more than one or two uses before falling apart, or becoming dull without a means to sharpen them.

People are realizing that storing all the crap they buy and realizing it has not function in the Storage unit is a non starter.

The argument for War as a sink is a ploy. It is merely to transfer wealth arounf for the central bankers, or profit on War or piece. It makes no difference to them. War is nothing more than a dogma that has run out of ideas, and decided to start killing it's fellow man.

Oh course, with the millions upon millions of people that have been abused, brainwashed and infected into submission by the social plague that surrounds us, there is little hope for them. They are so repressed that they are fighting their own life force and drives. It is this mass plague that infects the freepers and all the other psychopaths. They must be told what to do, and they must belong to the same club to give them a semblamce of meaning.

Utilizing a system that allows usurous interst rates with the fractional reserve system, that leaves the creation of the extra money needed to pay the interst later demands and ever growing system, or the destruction of wealth through bankruptcy, or in your case, war. In any case, the lender wins, because he can take your property, your life, your sovereignty, your freedom.

[XemaSab]

53. .

:patriot:

[conscious evolution]

59. Wish I could recommend this reply.

[bedazzled]

63. i'm afraid i agree with you - totally and absolutely

and that's the most frightening thing of all

[Alcibiades]

65. You're right--the whole point is to sell more plastic crap

Many of those companies that made those quality hand tools are out of business. The ones that are left (Black and Decker, etc.) are mainly the ones that moved to making plastic crap in China. Much more profitable if you have to sell folks a new whatever it is in three years.

[jwirr]

75. LOL. My dad loved his old model T Ford and complained for the

rest of his life about the plastic that was being used in cars to make them lighter weight.

[midnight]

72. Grinchie it sounds to me like you have had a bit of time to reflect.

Quality over Quantitiy. Peace over Money. Thanks for staying awake.

[abumbyanyothername]

86. Grinchie

I am trying hard to see where we join issue here, but it is early out here in California and I am missing it. I would go line by line through your post but I am too lazy.

I think we do both agree that the effect of the present system has been to transfer purchasing power out of the hands of the masses and into the hands of the few.

I cannot see if you agree with me that that is the ultimate downfall of the whole system -- if only a few have purchasing power, not much needs to be produced because their appetites, however outrageous, are no match for the sane appetites of the masses as a combined consuming force.

I do what I can. I advocate where I can. And I back my advocacy with personal choices that back out of the corporatist system to the fullest extent possible for me right now.

btw -- I am not advocating technocracy, nor for that matter are the technocrats. I am not even sure I buy into their whole vision. But I do agree that the current economic system is flawed in that the masses are constantly relegated to less and less purchasing power and this cannot be the bases from which the privileged continually earn more and more profit. 2+2 will never equal 9.

[Grinchie]

106. I just expanded upon the essence, and added my 2 cents for the war argument

I have been very fortunate in my life in that I was able to experience many things. Most notably, I was an analyst in a branch of the military during the Reagan years. I was once what you would call a Republican in a past life.

Then, I witnessed the explosion of the Corporate Military machine from the inside, and was privy to many things. The volumes of data, the private libraries of rare books, etc, etc.

However, I'm not the spit and polish kind of guy, so I left that career, and found that I really couldn't talk about what I did in the service, to anyone. I struggled for a long time, trying to figure out how to utilize my experience and training. I received no help from the military.

I did maintain my interest of current events, and paid attention. Watched as Reagan turned into a puppet for the NeoCons ( he always was, I just was too young to notice ), watched as Bush Senior invaded Panama, watched Iran Contra unfold, and watched the general manipulation of the economy. After a while, you become aware of the patterns, and at this point, there is no doubt that we are under a very sophisticated method of control. We have lost that basic common sense that tells us when we are being screwed out of our heritage. We are losing things that when they are gone, they will be irreplaceable, such as heirloom species of fruit and vegetables to present only one example.

The most illuminating pasttime lately is researching events as I read the interesting posts here on DU. There are a lot of very intelligent people here on DU, and I'm thankful that people are still able to get together and share thoughts without always flaming out into a battle of life and death. It's always a good feeling to see that a connection may have been made, and maybe let others know that they are not alone in feeling that something is amiss.

I worry that the powers that be will be compelled to use the huge military machine of the US simply because it exists. There is nothing honorable about sitting in front of a CRT halfway around the world, and shooting a missile into a mud hut. It is this detachment that is the biggest flaw of the current military, and it probably explains the massive increase in Soldiers that are using prescription antidepressants. To think that the military condones psychotropic medications for troops in active combat zones should scare the hell out of everyone, but apparently the "New" military doesn't have a problem with it.

As far as purchasing power goes, I'm a little lost on the point you are trying to make. Currently, the Central Bankers create money. They do this for the benefit of the industries and the policies they wish to pursue. If the Central Bank wants hummers, then GM will produce hummers, not the EV-1 that everyone needs, because the central banks investors make money off oil. Nor will the Water Fuel Cell technology ever get funded, because that may interfere with Oil, the Balance of Power, or maybe the Military has decided to keep it for itself and cited National Security concerns.

The important point to remember is that money is created out of thin air, so the Central Bank will always have more control over things, unless people actually wake up and stop trading their souls for a few bucks. If their were no disparity in wealth, then people would be less likey to sell out for money. However, we all have an intrinsic wealth, which is the gift of life, and the talent to do anything we put our mind to. This fundamental truth is being snuffed out by creating millions of specialists, who are lost when it comes to dealing with issues outside their specialty. Strive to learn as much about everything as you can!

They don't teach anything about money in school, you get a financial adviser to do it for you. You have a broken light switch? Get an electrician or handyman, because electricity is Dangerous, oh my. Fix your car? Forget it, they'll mix SAE, Metric Hex bolt and star drives just to foil your attempt. This is all done on purpose to drive the point home that you are not qualified, not well equipped enough, or are just plain stupid. It's a trick. There is no reason to mix different types of fasteners when you get to the heart of the matter. It's all meant to deter you from being self sufficient.

All of this leads to a dumbing down of America. We are losing touch with our bond to the natural rhythms, and most disturbingly, important facets of our science have been suppressed in order to promote a certain way of thinking that produces the most profit. For example Antoinne Bechamp vs Louis Pasteur.

Instead of focusing on money, which is what they want everyone to do, focus on knowledge and the ability to provide for your self. Living simply is a lot more fun than people think. Get out of debt. Thats the best thing that I ever did, and I've had since 2003 free and clear to work for myself, which is study the economy, science and history, and build my collection of hand tools by buying them from the kids selling their parents articles at estate sales.

I know this is a long post, but I have come to the realization that the DLC is in full control of this Administration. I'm getting ready to pack up and focus on getting ready for the third wave of foreclosures that is just now getting ready to start. California is not the only one preparing the lay off thousands of workers. Hawaii is too, and with a vengeance. I don't see how the economy is going to be able to withstand the shock of the next resets of Alt-A and the Prime loans that will go under when the civil workers are let go. I will be heading back to Hawaii soon to ride out the next phase of this contraction and work on my ranch, off the grid, and fully immersed in nature.

The best thing that I can come up with for being prepared is Knowledge, Liquidity, and Mobility. Money is nice if you have it, but I really don't see it as the end all of things. Having a valuable skill will be much more important. An axe, shovel and a machete may be more important!

Oh, and in case people missed it, John Kansius died of Pneumonia February 18th, 2009.
This man had been able to disassociated Hydrogen Gas from Sea Water by streaming radio waves at a test tube of water. His epitaph does not mention this. His technology was very similar to that of Royal Rife, who was all but forgetten by modern medicine. He cured cancer in the 1930's and 1940's.

And what do we get from Obama? A committment to Clean Coal and Nuclear! Yay... And there was much rejoicing.

I'm sad to say that this Administration is as bad as the last one.

[WinkyDink]

103. Capitalism was never designed to improve the lot of the masses, but to enslave them as laborers.

[DCBob]

10. Totally agree. Our economy is being reset and it will likely never recover to where it was.

Our economy of the past several years was based on bogus real estate valuations and before that on over valued Internet business boom. We are now coming back to earth where we belong. But the transition to stability probably won't be pretty. It is good though that Reich had the guts to finally start talking about this. The more people take this seriously perhaps the better we can deal with it.

[abumbyanyothername]

12. Our economy has been jobbed because the Chinese, Indians and Japanese

needed an outlet for their products (or in the case of India, services).

The leadership of those countries was willing to absorb US Government debt that they knew would be eventually worthless in order to maintain exchange rates that would keep their economies going (Japan) or growing (China and India) and industrialize (China) their peasant economies.

Now that the US has been nearly de-industrialized and the consumer market here is more or less exhausted, look for these countries to cut way back on their purchases of US debt.

Our standard of living is about to fall. Or rise (as we are forcead to abandon consumerism and, in its place find our real values), depending on how you look at it.

[DCBob]

18. One could argue this is a "good" thing but many will suffer, especially the poor & underprivileged..

but the reality is our addiction to consumerism has to be kicked or there will be no future for this planet. This was bound to happen eventually no matter what.

[Grinchie]

49. No, we had the chance to be in Space by now, but that plan was destroyed

@001 a space Oddessey is a good example of the remaining spirit of the future. Space exploration was moving ahead in a big big way, until we got to Reagan, who cut funding for NASA. We had the promise and the capability, but the program was slowly choked to death in favor of a bloated military that is still growing.

So much money in star wars, yet we see no breaktrhroughs in technology for the average citizen. We have trillions of dollars of military hardware, aging, gethering sdust, and itching to be used before it is inoperable.

Cruise Missile have a Freshness date, and you dare not use on after that expires if you don't want ti lose a million bucks here and there for malfunctions. Bah , what do they care about malfunctions, they'll just fire twice as many, "To be sure".

Is anybodya paying attention to th fact that Hawaii just received 3, 3 billion dollar nuclear fast attack subs in the last 3 years? You think you'll ever see those in Army surplus?

[Grinchie]

48. Obama has the chance to do this, but he is now a Bonfide DLC Stooge

I've given up on Obama forever, with his cozy ties to the fed, the insertion of Corporate friendly drones, and his utter stupidity in handling this economic crisis.

Cash for Clunkers gets a go ahead, while Audit the Fed is refused.. If that isn't the biggest boot to the head, I don't know what is.

His whole team smells of DLC taint.

[SammyWinstonJack]

97. +1

:thumbsup:

[DCBob]

104. Sure genius. You think it is all so simple. We are in uncharted territory and

nooone knows for sure what to do.

[Grinchie]

107. I know that I'd yank the 2.5 Billion we just gave to Israel and shore up the states first.

I'd also make sure I had an Audit of the Gold (If Any) in Fort Knox, to make sure it was still there. ( 1 Day )

I'd also Audit the Fed from top to bottom. ( 2 weeks )

I'd cut the military expenditures in half. No exceptions. ( ASAP )

I'd Audit every piece of equipment, every armament, and every contract and every bill incurred by the Military. (30 days )

I'd makes sure I found out where the 2.3 trillion dollars that the military is unable to account for if found, and I would track it to the programs that helped it disappear. ( As long as it takes )

I would immediately cancel the missile defence shield in Europe (ASAP)

I would personally tour Groom Lake. ( When Convenient )

I would review any Patents restricted by National Security for alternate energy devices that are being witheld. ( 2 weeks )

Then, using that data, I'd hire some real geniuses to tell me what the data meant and then come up with a plan. ( 2 Months for the final draft )

I doesn't take a genius to come up with that simple list of Action Items, so why can't Obama?

[sandnsea]

11. A new lifestyle

That will be more on the Japanese model I expect, and new industries that are starting to peak out. I'm not worried about that.

The problem is what will we do with the capitalists, the investor class, who don't know how to contribute anything to society. What did they do in the 50s?

[Better Believe It]

14. A lower lifestyle for us, a new and improved one for the rich

[elzenmahn]

41. In the fifties...

...the highest marginal tax bracket, if my memory serves me right, was 91%.

[Better Believe It]

13. That sounds like a winning campaign slogan in 2010 and 2012

"Want a job recovery? Forget about it!"

or

"A New and Improved Economy Is On the Way .... Really!"

or

"Be Patient, Things Will Be Better Someday"

Perhaps Reich can come up with some snappy and better campaign slogans for the next two elections that will stop the Republicans from retaking control of Congress and the White House.

Perhaps ....

"Be Patient, We're Workin On It"

"All we are sayin is give us another chance" That could be sung to the Give Peace A Chance song.

Well, if the economy isn't in much better shape in 2010 and 2012 than it is now the Democratic Party will be toast.

And a great historic opportunity for change we can believe in will have been lost.

[Fumesucker]

16. This isn't about slogans..

It's about reality.

Some people seem to lose sight of the fact that there is a difference.

[DireStrike]

19. I don't think we're at the "opportunity" part yet

It really was a crappy time for the political pendulum to swing towards our party.

Now, leftist ideas will be said to have "failed" to save the economy, because our party has marched ever rightward while still claiming to be left. Even if we say that Obama is one of us, clearly there are not anywhere near 60 leftist senators. Not even a majority.

[elzenmahn]

42. That's what happens...

...when your representatives and senators are bought and paid for. Why should they listen to us?

[Grinchie]

50. Depends on what you call "Our Party", I see more of the same.

[alcibiades_mystery]

76. Secret Plan for a Treasure Hunt Economy... Who's with Me?

:rofl:

[bertman]

17. I hate bad news like this. But, we've been getting it all along--but entirely

from people who are NOT connected with this administration. They will not tell us the truth because it's going to be a very hard pill to swallow.

Rec and kick.

[brentspeak]

20. And Robert Reich helped put us in this position in the first place

when he cheer-leaded for so-called "free trade" during his time as Sec. of Labor under Clinton. His criticism of Wall St. and trickle-down policy is all well and good, but he can't run away from his role in enabling America's manufacturing base to exit the nation.

[Poiuyt]

25. You're not thinking of Robert Rubin, are you?

I thought Rubin was the one who was pushing for free trade so much. I could be wrong though.

[HughBeaumont]

54. Halfway down, dial-up is the faster load.

http://www.zazona.com/shameh1b/MediaClips.htm

Robert Reich also believes in the snake oil, and he gets exposed on the video. I'll never forget this video clip.

[troubledamerican]

27. Reich quit the Clinton Admin -- Rubin is regarded as the chief "free trade" pusher

There's an argument to be made that certainly Reich didn't do enough to push against free trade whatsoever.

Rubin was more responsible for pushing it, however.

[ChiciB1]

101. I've Always Thought More Of Reich Than Rubin... At Least It Seems Reich

is doing his best NOW to make his statement very clear!!

Had an opportunity to go to San Francisco a couple of months ago and would have loved to see him at the college. Didn't happen though!

[seabeckind]

35. Don't care for Reich

A few months ago he was on one of the talking head shows discussing the GM bailout stuff. He was making statements that the unions had to make many more concessions.

Like maybe training those people down in the Mexican parts plants? (my editorial snark)

Just the sort of guy I liked representing our labor force.:sarcasm:

Showed to me that he really didn't understand the politics behind the GM stuff or that he was shilling for the pro-bidness folks.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

21. But, the politicians and economic experts have rearranged the deck chairs artfully.

Alas, the iceberg remains and the course remains steady.

[rschop]

24. re; Alas, the iceberg remains and the course remains steady.

From prior post:

"But, the politicians and economic experts have rearranged the deck chairs artfully.
Alas, the iceberg remains and the course remains steady."

But the way it had been rearranged is that they, the politicians and economic experts, are all sitting in the few life boats that are available and the rest of us have been moved to the front of the boat so we can get a better view of the ice berg.

But look at the bright side, at least they have not given us a jar of Vaseline and then asked us to bend over.

[kentuck]

26. Unfortunately, Robert Reich is right on the money.

This recession is different. We cannot go back to the "easy credit" economy of the past. And in the past, the consumers were lifting the economy with credit, just as he stated. That option is no longer there. And the contraction of wages for the last 30 years does not portend well for a consumer-driven recovery. This is the reality that Robert Reich is talking about.

[CoffeeCat]

28. I'm no genius...

...and I saw that our economy would implode and that we would not simply back on the same track and start
running again.

What's happening to our economy is not some temporary setback.

Our entire economic model is crashing. And I'd say that this has been extremely obvious to the corporate overlords,
who are looting everything before the money spigot goes dry.

No doubt, we will rise again. However, this is a paradigm shift. Our system will crash and we will rebuild another one.
In the meantime, there's going to be a lot of pain and suffering--before a new model arises.

If you really think about it---on what would a recovery be based? The economy is hemorrhaging jobs right now. Spending
has tightened. There is no manufacturing base--or any other base--that can be the foundation of true economic recovery.
We're outsourcing jobs, for Pete's sake.

I've been preparing for a paradigm shift for a long time. I'm glad to see that other prominent economists are speaking
the truth.

[kentuck]

29. and the sad truth is that we will be in such dire straits after Obama's first term...

that the voters will seriously consider putting the Repubs back in power to fix the mess. Foolishly, I might add. If the Repubs get anywhere near the White House in the next 12 years, we are screwed royally.

[jwirr]

79. That is why our left leaning economists and eco-economists need to

get the truth out to the voters now while we can still remember that it was all those years of RR policy that got us into this mess. The worst thing that can happen is for the pugs to get back in - well maybe it would be bad. Maybe they would push us so much further down that there would be very little government left.... or they would complete their fascist takeover and we would all be slaves. Who know what they would do? That is scary.

[waiting for hope]

30. Jobs - what this country needs is JOBS.

K&R

[leftofthedial]

32. I've said it repeatedly. This is not a cyclical phase of the old economy.

This is a paradigm shift.

[leftstreet]

36. I'm double-super-plus recommending your response

This is a paradigm shift.

Yep

[conscious evolution]

57. Absolutely correct

The winds of change are blowing and far too many still think it is a summer breeze.

[dysfunctional press]

93. plenty of people are still clinging to their faith in the old system...

but you can see the scared look in their eyes.

nobody knows what's coming next, but people ARE slowly coming to the realization that we're not going back to the way it was.

interesting times a'comin'.

[lib2DaBone]

34. Obama Administration Grant Program De-Emphasizing Job Creation

We need jobs.. but I don't think anyone in Washington cares.... shovel more moneny to the Banksters. The Stimulas Funds have disappeared down the BEBH (Big Executive Black Hole).

It seems that about 10 days ago job creation was quietly dropped as a major criteria for rating proposed projects for potential funding over at the Department of Energy. Plus now, they only need to report jobs quarterly.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/07/obama-administration-grant-program-deemphasizing-job-creation.html

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

When Vice President Joe Biden announced a new $3.3 billion grant program to upgrade the nation’s electricity network, the rationale was simple: “This is jobs -- jobs,” he said in April.

But....“Will DOE use the number of jobs estimated to be created and/or retained as a criterion for rating a proposal for funding?”

“No. (says the DOE) Although job creation is not included in the technical criteria used to rate proposals, it plays an important role throughout the grant process, and grant recipients are required to submit the numbers of jobs created and retained in their quarterly reports to DOE and to recovery.gov.”

No further explanation was given.

[tan guera]

37. Why would they do this?

I'm feeling the way I did during the bush years...purposeful destruction of our country.

[seabeckind]

38. 2 easy answers

The laissez-faire nutzoid management "analysts" hired into the Reagan and Bush I whitehouse and allowed to fester under Clinton are now in a senior management position in the gov't. They are like a cancer, not necessarily preventing progress but not encouraging it.

Secondly, there has been a revolving door between gov't and bidness for just as long. These people are one and the same. They don't want us to have jobs, they want slaves in a global economy.

There's a reason why dictators in the old USSR and any other country do purges.

Can we talk about Geithner and Bernanke now? Do you really believe they're on board?

[conscious evolution]

60. I have been searching the grant.gov site

fro funding for a 501c3 I am involved with.
Most of the goverment grants these days are set up in such a way that only large corporations are eligible for them.Grants that were for small groups seem to have been dropped from the programs.

[elzenmahn]

39. He's right...

...and I would go a step further and say that we are not in a "recession", but a permanent downward shift in the American standard of living.

I recall not too long ago, Mr. Geithner (if my spelling is correct) saying that Americans will experience a permanent lowering of their disposable income, or something to that affect.

And look at trade deals like GATT and NAFTA, and the WTO. Remember all the sweet talk about "opening markets"? The left out a word in the middle of that phrase - LABOR. To me, those "free trade" (an oxymoron if I've ever seen one) deals and the WTO were meant to open up the super-low-cost LABOR markets of Asia and developing countries to the multinational corporations who quite frankly, own our government.

The next time somebody talks about how "free" markets are good for the consumer, ask this:

"How do people get to BE consumers?"

[JHB]

66. "Bait and Switch Economic Policy" has been the standard since Reagan

The "sweet talk" for Reagan's tax cuts was that the money that was no longer going to taxes would be used to update and modernize our aging industrial plant.

(At the time, the "conventional wisdom" was that part of our manufacturing decline was due to our companies operating with aging and outdated factories, whereas in Europe and Japan equivalent facilities were decades more modern, since most of the older stuff hadn't survived WW2 bombing.)

The actual result? It all went to the Wall Street Casino and financed Mergermania(tm).

[Sebastian Doyle]

40. If Obama really wanted to fix the economy

He'd fire Timmy the Keebler Elf and the rest of the Goldman Suckups tommorrow and hire Bob Reich and some other people who know what the fuck they're talking about.

[elzenmahn]

43. Agreed, but the rub here would be...

...would people like Reich and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman get past the confirmation process, considering what they've been saying?

Again, when you have a bought-and-paid-for congress...

[Sebastian Doyle]

44. It will be a bought and paid for REPUKE congress in 2010, if things don't improve

The corporatist DLC fake Democrats may not want to do what's in the best interests of the people, but they DO want to get re-elected. ;)

[jwirr]

81. And since they have their eyes open are we sure they would even

want a job that merely puts them in the line of fire?

[Grinchie]

45. And this is why the DLC is Firmly in Control, Feeding the Corporations in preparation for the End.

What better way to prepare for the New Economy, than by stealing as much seed money you can from the Old?

The New DLC, Brought to you by the Federal Reserve and Monsanto. Security provided by the U.S. Military. Surveillance Equipment courtesy of NSA, CIA, BCCI, Boeing and Dyncorp.

Mind altering Pharmfood prepared by General Mills, Yum Foods Inc., Tyson Corporation, Cargill and ADM.

Experimental animals provided by the American Public.

[HughBeaumont]

51. Get ready for Dow < 100!

Famine, drought and despair! Doom, defeat and lotsa schadenfreude!

Said the free-trader, "job-offshoring-is-a-good-thing" cheerleader. :eyes:

[B Calm]

55. Do away with NAFTA would be a good start!

[fasttense]

61. To end this 2nd Republicon Great Depression we Must have another WPA.

That is the only thing that will get us out of this mess. It would put money and jobs into the poor and lower middle class. It would not focus solely on infrastructure projects but on small business, the firms that have been destroyed by corporate monopolies. This new Work Progress Administration, WPA, should be open to All who have exhausted their unemployment benefits (or are ineligible, if they can prove they have lost their jobs and have been unemployed for over 6 months). They could be hired by the federal government and put to work for small businesses (firms with 200 people or less that do not outsource their jobs) at $10 per hour. Where the government would pay half their wages and give them health care, and the small business, non profit (if they spend less than 10% for administrative overhead) and government agencies would pay the other half of their wages.

To prevent firms from firing all their employees and hiring them back at cheaper costs through this program, the employer would have to prove that he has not fired any personnel in the last 3 months and have fired less than 5% of their personnel in the last 6 months.

This would raise the minimum wage overnight without any legislative action. It would give people jobs and training and could easily be phased out when the economy recovers just like the old WPA. This would create jobs. What small firm wouldn't expand if they thought they could hire people for less without hurting the people?

I'm sending this idea to Obama, again.

[KoKo]

96. This is a proposal that keeps trying to be pushed ....yet they don't listen... Another WPA.

[4dsc]

62. Reich is spot on..

I don't see why so many people are in denial over this. Our economy was built on a house of cards and that has come crashing down.. We cannot rebuild it the same way ever again..

[Jennicut]

71. I agree, it will never be what it was because it was unsustainable. That is not such a bad thing

however, as borrowing credit got out of hand.
Some things are bad though such as the permanent loss of manufacturing jobs.

[Vidar]

64. K&R

[gorfle]

67. Here it is in a nutshell:

"... My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can't get back on track because the track we were on for years -- featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere -- simply cannot be sustained."

This is it in a nutshell. For the last 10 years at least the economy has been driven by easy access to loans - cheap money.

The cheap money is now gone. We cannot "stimulate" our way out of this.

You can't give someone an $8000 credit towards a new car if you can't afford a car payment.

You can't give someone an $8000 credit towards a new home if you can't afford a house payment.

People are tapped out on debt. We don't need more debt to stimulate the economy, we need more wealth. Until the scene changes where we all have more wealth, the beatings will continue.

[Fire1]

85. And it looks like it's going to be more of a 'service' economy

to obtain that wealth instead of manufacturing.

[bvar22]

89. Would you like some fries with that?

NOW we have Your Children’s Money too !!!
And there is not a fucking thing you can do about it!
Now THIS is “Bi-Partisanship” !
Better get used to it!!
Hahahahahahahahaha!

[snappyturtle]

74. Thanks Newsjock! The caliber of this post is why I come to DU.

So much here to get into. Am bookmarking. Obviously, K&R! and here's a :kick: for good measure

[jwirr]

83. Yes, this felt like the old DU. Informative and respectful and FUN. nt

[Fire1]

82. Agree and glad to see it return to 'normal.'

The economy is not supposed to return to the 'bubble,' although, I'm sure it will in another twenty or thirty years. The election of another republican president will undoubtedly begin the ground work.

[OwnedByFerrets]

91. He's saying what no one wants to hear.

[Nay]

115. Yes, and that's why this piece is at Talking Points Memo and not in the NYT.

When stuff like this finally gets printed in the NYT, we'll know the shit has hit the fan.

[earcandle]

94. National Banks with 14% savings interest rate, 5% loans rate and

let the people vote on how our tax dollars are used, not
corrupt corporate lobbyist.

Easy... make progress, not war. 

[Karenina]

98. Jobless recovery, indeed!

:eyes:

[kevsters]

100. It Won't Recover With Hacks Like Hannity Around.

You have to see it to believe just how flat out deceptive this jackass can truly be.

Watch him manipulate a USA Today article on stimulus spending here.

http://progressnotcongress.org/?p=2112

[DCBob]

105. Hannity and Limbaugh and the other right-wing hacks are truly pathetic.

They have their clueless simple-minded listeners believing it would be better to destroy America than let Obama policies work. Many refuse to ever buy American cars again because that would be supporting Obama's auto bailout. They are sick sick people.

[WinkyDink]

102. Tax the highest 1% within an inch of their lives. Tell them it's better than the guillotine.

The money is there. Tax off-shore accounts. Stop the occupations.

[Uncle Joe]

109. The obvious answer to an X economy going down is to make a left turn

making a right or staying the course only leads downward.

Kicked and recommended, thanks for the thread, Newsjock.

[grahamhgreen]

110. Rich was also pro outsourcing, has he changed his mind on this? We need tarrifs & higher wages. nt

[Gregorian]

112. If we/they could find another Hitler, we'd see huge recovery.

But that assumes we have petroleum and don't care about global warming. And neglects that upwards of 100 million people were killed in World War Two. But having been in a discussion in a machining forum where some of the war videos were being posted, it's very easy to see how our economy exploded with growth due to the war. And I guarantee that aside from the obvious reasons, that is why Bush attacked Iraq. He made Hussein the evil figure, and was hoping to become a hero while simultaneously boosting America's economy.

But we'd also have to rebuild our lost manufacturing infrastructure. In other words, forget it. I believe that the growth we saw as a result of the war against Hitler was unreal. It was unsustainable. It killed planet earth. And was never meant to be. In a word, it's unnatural. And so here we find ourselves amongst the debris of plastic, electronics, automobiles. And no way to really sustain ourselves once the shit hits the fan. What a party.