Jobs numbers out.

[Statistical]

Initial new claims: 621,000 (fell 4,000 from last week)
Continuing claims: 6,740,000 (fell 15,000 from last week)

Still really big numbers but nice to see it going down for once.

This is the first time the continuing claims number has gone down since first week in January.

[Oregone]

1. Yeah, but seasonally adjusted, is that good news?

[Statistical]

2. I believe but don't quote me that the numbers are always seasonally adjusted.

Maybe someone else knows for sure.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. It could be, yes.

Truth is, being that jobs are such a lagging indicator, we won't know for sure until we look back on it whether or not this is good news or just a blip. So far as I know, last month we saw the second derivative of unemployment numbers start to turn around (meaning that the rate at which we were losing jobs was starting to reverse) and now we see a bit more direct evidence of it. Will the trend continue? My guess (and I'm not an expert - just someone that does track these things a bit more than the average person), is that it will, but it looks like a trend that's going to be fairly slow to develop. And, of course, it's an issue that's highly sensitive to atmospheric changes, so the overall trend might even continue while month-to-month numbers look like they're going in the wrong direction.

It may not be time to celebrate, but it is, perhaps, time to take a normal breath for a change.

[Larkspur]

4. Continuing claim number go down for a few reasons...

1) person found a job but this may mean a kind job that is not what the person did before, like IT workers taking jobs serving fries with your burger.
2) person dies
3) person exhausted their unemployment benefits. Currently you can only be on UI for 59 weeks maxinum. That maxinum is split into 3 phases:1) 26 weeks, 2) 20 weeks and 3) 13 weeks. If you haven't found a job in that time, you are dropped off the UI rolls regardless if you found a job or not.

They need to look at UI, new job applicants, average wages of new employees and Welfare applications together.

I've been unemployed since November 2008 but did not get on UI until the week before last in January 2009. I have a friend who has similar skills as I do and he has been unemployed for almost 2 years. Obama's stimulus bill allowed him to get back on UI benefits plan.

[TahitiNut]

5. Unemployment compensation CLAIMS are NOT the same as "jobs numbers."

While such claims tend to correlate with unemployment, there are far too many people who lose jobs and fall through the cracks, not receiving unemployment compensation.

The report being cited is the "UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT" from the Department of Labor, an aggregated report based on state-by-state reporting.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20090592.htm

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 621,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000. The 4-week moving average was 631,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 627,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the week ending May 23, unchanged from the prior week's revised rate of 5.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 23 was 6,735,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,750,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,687,500, an increase of 88,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,598,750.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.184 million.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 496,822 in the week ending May 30, a decrease of 41,577 from the previous week. There were 300,989 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.5 percent during the week ending May 23, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,014,501, a decrease of 141,671 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.1 percent and the volume was 2,757,822.

Extended benefits were available in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin during the week ending May 16.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,642 in the week ending May 23, an increase of 225 from the prior week. There were 1,759 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 18 from the preceding week.

There were 15,301 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending May 16, a decrease of 510 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 28,435, an increase of 181 from the prior week.

States reported 2,347,218 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending May 16, an increase of 161,355 from the prior week. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 16 were in Michigan (7.6 percent), Oregon (7.1), Puerto Rico (6.7), Nevada (6.4), Pennsylvania (6.2), Wisconsin (5.9), California (5.5), Arkansas (5.4), Idaho (5.4), and North Carolina (5.4).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 23 were in Illinois (+3,881), Iowa (+2,312), South Carolina (+1,792), Texas (+1,548), and Wisconsin (+1,464), while the largest decreases were in North Carolina (-3,952), Michigan (-2,812), Ohio (-2,158), Tennessee (-2,053), and Connecticut (-1,320).

[Statistical]

6. However this is the best number we had.

Number of people collecting unemployment is MORE than 6.7 million but the number is 6.7 million.

When the economy was expanding the number was 3.3 million but even then the number of actual people was MORE.

So the numbers are not saying absolutely no more than 6.7 million people are out of work.
When the UI number gets back to the 3 million range the economy will be in a lot better shape than when it is at 6.7 million.