David Kay: “The greatest threat that Iran’s nuclear program poses is to Iran itself”

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Friday, 24 April 2009

Washington, DC -- "It is not true that Iran's nuclear program is a threat to us or our allies," said the UN's former head nuclear inspector in Iraq, David Kay. "It is an existential threat to the Iranian nation."

"It is hard to see how Iran enhances its security by going from where it is now to having a weapon."said Kay, who spoke Thursday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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Kay argued that whether Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon remains an open question. "Not even the Iranians themselves seem to know where this is going," he said, adding "we don't know if they have made a decision regarding the end-point." He cited statistics suggesting that the nuclear program has become a matter of prestige for Iran but that most Iranians view nuclear weapons as un-Islamic.

Kay argued that Israel does not have the capability to carry out an "effective strike" against Iran's nuclear program. "You're not going to do much of consequence with a single air sortie," he said. However, he added that a major attack could set Iran back 3-5 years, if there are no unknown clandestine nuclear sites. Still, he emphasized this was not his recommended course of action.

"We need to understand the Iranian national security dilemma," he said, adding that Iran and Israel are like "twins separated at birth," apparently because of their similar security dilemmas. Kay concluded by saying the "political security environment," not the nuclear program, should be the starting point for talks.


read: http://www.niacouncil.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1402&Itemid=2