G20 row... the FT claims French "victory" tomorrow

[tocqueville]

Sarkozy more likely to win than walk out

By Ben Hall in Paris

Published: March 31 2009 19:16 | Last updated: March 31 2009 19:16

France is likely to be one of the nations best able to claim victory when the summit ends on Thursday, suggesting that Nicolas Sarkozy will not have to make good on his threat to walk away from the negotiating table if his demands are not met.

Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, said on Tuesday that the president had been “very clear”. “He said, ‘If the deliverables aren’t there, I won’t sign the communiqué.’ It means walking away. I think he’s very determined.”

.....

While strongly supporting reform of international financial institutions and calls for more resources for the International Monetary Fund, Paris’s overriding objective has been tighter regulation of financial markets, for which there is almost universal domestic support.

.....

In many areas, the debate has moved decisively in Paris’s direction. French officials say there are now few differences between France, the UK and the US on these issues. However, Paris’s call for immediate changes to fair-value accounting rules have failed to win wider support from the G20, and its demand for a blacklist of tax havens could fall foul of ­Chinese opposition.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ee26cd02-1e1d-11de-830b-00144feabdc0.html

In other words, there won't be an "empty chair" (if there was, it wouldn't change much except that France would win a lot of prestige among the "masses"). A compromise that satisfies everybody will be reached.

and if it fails, we can always blame the Chinese.

[Thrill]

1. Germany and France want the same regulations Geithner already announced to Congress

They can brag that they won. But in America we know that Obama isn't doing anything he hasn't already proposed

[tocqueville]

2. Obama said today

"I didn't come here to lecture"

Obama will have to compromise because there is no other option. At least, I think that he is intelligent enough to do so. Roosevelt didn't want to participate in the equivalent of the G20 at his time. The result was increased protectionism and a prolongation of the depression.

BTW the problem might be that Congress doesn't want to back Geithner's proposals

[Thrill]

3. As Obama also said today. Geithner's regulations are tougher than anything proposed

by anyone in G20.

Also Sarkozy and Merkel both talked today about regulating things Geithner already proposed. So like I said, they'll can both go home claiming victory. But they really just backed Obama's proposals