Did RFK have a chance of winning the nomination in 1968?

[RFKHumphreyObama]

Yes, yes, I know this is a hypothetical question with no relevance to issues today but it is nevertheless something that has always interested me

There seems to be an assumption among many that RFK had a good chance of winning the nomination before he was assassinated. Such a view is shared by historians such as Arthur Schlesinger Jr. and there is reasonable evidence to suggest that it may have been possible. After all the evidence was that Kennedy was gaining the edge over Senator McCarthy in the primaries and was emerging as a formidable challenger to Vice President Humphrey for securing the nomination. It is reasonable to assume that Kennedy would have secured a number of delegate votes on name recognition alone and he had strong support from minorities, some sections of organized labour and other key Democratic constituencies

OTOH, others -including I'm led to believe Kennedy's own campaign manager (though I could be wrong about this) -believe that Humphrey would have won the nomination regardless. Again there is reasonable evidence to suggest that this is true as well. After all, Humphrey had the strong endorsement of the party machine and the party bosses who in those days had much more influence and power over the Democratic Party than they do now. It is worthwhile noting that Humphrey won the nomination without contesting any of the primaries -although he did field a few favorite son surrogates in various states -so presumably RFK's victory in the primaries would have counted for nothing. Also, given the antaognism between McCarthy and Kennedy, it is not unreasonable to speculate that the anti-war/progressive bloc would have been split between the two candidates and this would have given Vice President Humphrey an additional edge. Furthermore LBJ hated RFK with a passion and was determined not to have him win the nomination. I've read somewhere (not sure if it is true) that LBJ had some potentially damaging tapes of RFK (probably provided and/or doctored by J Edgar Hoover) which he was planning to release before RFK was assassinated. A sitting President has enormous influence over the Democratic Party and LBJ certainly was a master of arm-twisting and manipulation to achieve his own ends (please note that this is not a criticism of LBJ -he used this to constructive means to achieve much in terms of progressive reform for America including the civil rights legislation)

Yet it is interesting to note that party bosses may not have been as unsympathetic to the Kennedy machine as has been portrayed. Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, for instance, was regarded as somewhat of a Kennedy sympathizer and was reportedly lukewarm in his support for Humphrey. It has been reported that, at the 1968 Democratic Convention, he was seeking to persuade Senator Edward M Kennedy to seek the presidential nomination against Humphrey and was prepared to rally delegates to his cause. Bob Shrum, in his memoirs, recounts that Daley's son William (Gore's campaign manager) came home one night during the 1968 convention and found a whole lot of Edward Kennedy campaign memorabilia in the house that Daley Sr. signalled he was preparing to use in the event that Kennedy agreed to run for the nomination. As it happened, Kennedy declined and Daley remained loyal to Humphrey. But, had RFK lived, it is not unreasonable to speculate that Daley would have been prepared to sway influential votes his way. In fact I've also read that Kennedy, just before his death, had been in negotiations with Daley which were reportedly progressing in a way which would have guaranteed a favorable outcome for his campaign.

So what say you DU'ers? Do you think RFK had a chance of winning the nomination? And how you do think RFK would have done against Nixon?

[Captain Hilts]

1. He got in the race very late, but there were fewer primaries then. Hard to say.nt

[SoCalDem]

2. YES!

Conventions were different back then, and late momentum meant a LOT!

that's why he was killed..because he could have won.:(

[Naturyl]

3. Tough to call, but RFK was a closer.

I think it's possible he could have done it, and maybe taken the general, too.

[Historic NY]

4. A floor flight would have given him the nomination.

He was anti-war & pro-poor.

[DebbieCDC]

5. I think he would have won

He was doing great with young voters, anti-war camp and minorities. I think he would've been the nominee and would have won the presidency.

[nevergiveup]

6. He was shot

just minutes after giving his victory speech in the California primary. This win would have given him tremendous momentum.

[customerserviceguy]

7. I do remember that election

but I was a kid at the time. Still, I tried to keep up with the news on TV, newspapers, and magazines. I guess I started following politics as a sort of spectator sport way back when!

I think RFK could have pulled it off, especially if the assassin's bullet had missed, or had merely wounded the Senator. Now, against Nixon, that's a different subject. I cannot imagine RFK getting any votes that Nixon or Wallace received. There might have been some people who decided to sit out the election that would have voted for an anti-war candidate, but they would have been principally in the states that Humphrey won.

[Hekate]

8. Heck yeah, he won California. He had the antiwar voters at his back.

I was for McCarthy, but had RFK lived I would have worked for him. As it was, his death just about crushed us all. Young as I was, I knew that Gene McCarthy didn't have a prayer after the combined blow of the loss of the California primary and the assassination of Bobby Kennedy.

What a horrible year.

Hekate

[OffWithTheirHeads]

9. Oh hell yeah! As I recall

He generated as much excitement as Obama. Our corporate masters were quaking in their boots, scared to death of the reforms he was espousing. They HAD to shoot him to stop him.

[fla nocount]

10. I got "Clean for Gene" during that election but only after the Fed

murdered Bobby. It's hard to say but my own votes would have been for Bobby...one and Gene...two. That's who BO is, he's Humphrey, right down to the involvement of the Daley machine. Third choices for all of us.

[madokie]

11. Yes I do and I think he would have won hands down too

I was in the navy at the time and stationed at SERE training in Warner Springs California. RFK was real popular there then. I remember the night he was murdered. When the person who woke me up to take over the watch told me that Kennedy had just been shot I said I knew that, it was 5 years ago. Was I ever shocked.

[bottomtheweaver]

12. SERE goes back forty years?

For some reason I thought it was newer. Apparently SERE is also the "torture curriculum" being used by the CIA at places like Abu Ghraib and Gitmo (according to Jane Mayer's book). Who knew it's been around that long, thanks!

Oh and I agree totally about RFK. If he didn't have a good chance he wouldn't have been rubbed out. In fact he was whacked the very night his nomination started to look like a fait accompli.

[madokie]

13. The school was there long before I arrived too

I was there from early '68 through june of '69. Tough class but great duty afterwards.

[Alexander]

14. If he didn't have a chance, he wouldn't have been shot.

RFK won every primary he contested except Oregon, and even after his death, Humphrey was still just shy of the nomination going into the convention. Humphrey won by default because RFK's delegates split their votes between Humphrey, McCarthy, McGovern and other candidates - had RFK lived, his delegates would've been a unified bloc.

As for Nixon, he was scared shitless of the Kennedys - he even tried to dig up dirt on Teddy in 1972, afraid that Teddy would either run or get the VP nomination. So yes, I think it's very likely Kennedy would've won both the nomination and the presidency, although he might have had to cut a deal and put McCarthy or someone else influential on the ticket.

[Matilda]

15. Looking from a distance (Australia) the RFK campaign seemed to have the inevitability

that we've recently seen in the Obama campaign.

I was very young, but I was aware enough of politics to know that he
really had no track record on which we could judge his ability to be
president. But he spoke to my heart, and those of millions like me,
and that was all that mattered.

These were emotional times everywhere and from Eastern Europe to the
Antipodes there was a sense of change in the air. We cheered the French
progressives as they demanded change, and solidly supported Alexander
Dubcek as he tried to lead Chekoslovakia out from under Russian
domination. And we gave our hearts unreservedly to Bobby Kennedy,
wherever we were. And because our parents were also becoming more
cynical about (mostly conservative) governments everywhere, I think the
mood for change would have carried Bobby Kennedy to the White House.

[Hekate]

19. My god, the Prague Spring, too.

There was so much hope in the air...

Hekate

[jaysunb]

16. I thought so back then

But looking at the reality of the times 40 years later,not so much, now.

Looking at many of the others posts on this thread, I have to agree that:

1) Johnson still controlled the Party and both Kennedy & McCarthy bucked him and the Party line.

2)They would have split the anti war vote giving Humphrey the nom.

3) Nixon would have won either way. ( the southern strategy was completely effective )

[deaniac21]

17. He had it for sure.

[saltpoint]

18. "...and it's on to Chicago, and let's win there" -- Kennedy said, only

moments before he was murdered at The Ambassador.

After he won the California primary, the rationale for his being nominated was bolstered and momentum was his.

Yes. I believe after a few rounds of scuffling and elbowing on the floor at the Convention, RFK would likely have prevailed and won the nomination.

[Golden Raisin]

20. I know one cannot judge on this

basis alone, but as a teenager in High School I went to 2 rallies for RFK --- one in a small town setting (NY State) and one at (old) Madison Square Garden. The crowd's reaction in both cases was absolute pandemonium and a kind of contagious, fired-up, excited enthusiasm I have not seen until Obama, although the positive reaction for RFK was considerably more than Obama.