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Get ready to watch Bill O'Reilly's head explode: Math shows Franken win to be a near certainty

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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 08:47 PM
Original message
Get ready to watch Bill O'Reilly's head explode: Math shows Franken win to be a near certainty
After spending several hours on theStar Tribune website examining 1,333 challenged ballots (20% of the total challenges) in the Minnesota Senate race, I am now fully confident that Al Franken will be our next Senator from Minnesota. I will eat crow if I am wrong on this one, but the math is on my side here and unless there is a huge statistical anomaly that favors Coleman then Franken has this contest in the bag even if those missing ballots from Minneapolis never get counted.

I examined those 1,333 challenges with consistent standards for both candidates, and I have a very good understanding of Minnesota election law so I am confident that the judges on the canvassing board will agree with the vast majority of decisions I made. Most of the decisions were very easy to make as the intent was clear on the vast majority of ballots, and there is no question of how the judges will rule on 90% of them.

After examining 20% of the challenged ballots Al Franken showed a 105 vote net gain. If this trend continues as it has since basically the time I started counting then in the end Franken will have made a net gain of 525 votes after all the challenged ballots are examined giving Franken a 333 vote victory. The margin of error on this statistic is 143 votes, meaning that Franken's lead is more than double that margin of error.

Now some may question where these ballots I looked at are coming from. After paying attention to the down ticket races on the many ballots I inspected it is clear that the ballots were coming from all corners of the state, both urban and rural, both Democratic and Republican precincts. It seems to be a very representative sample, and considering that Franken was showing 15% to 20% more votes throughout nearly the entire course of my analysis it seems highly likely that trend will continue when the other 80% of the votes are examined.

While both candidates had some frivolous challenges, it became clear very quickly that Coleman had far more frivolous challenges than Franken did and as a result he will likely lose by a wide enough margin that it would be extremely difficult for him to mount a legal challenge to the results.

If you think this is just me coming up with these numbers then look at the ballots on the Star Tribune website and you will see that the Star Tribune's results for everyone who took their ballot challenge shows Franken with a 256 vote lead and an 88 vote margin of error. As I generally don't trust online stats such as these because they are so easy for partisans to manipulate, after seeing results similar to that when I did my own analysis I realized that number appears to be at least fairly close to being accurate. If you analyze enough ballots I am sure you will begin to see similar results as well, so if you don't trust my numbers vote on some ballots and see what you come up with. I promise that by the time you look at several hundred of them you will see that things are looking very good for Franken.

Get ready to celebrate at the end of the month, because I am confident that when the canvassing board announces the results Al Franken will be our next Senator and Bill O'Reilly will be rushed to the hospital after his head suddenly explodes.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
1. Excellent on both counts!
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mascarax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Ha! I agree
I looked at some ballots when they were first posted, and it was an interesting exercise...still can't get over the person who voted for Obama, Franken & Michelle Bachmann, but I digress.

Instead of taking O'Reilly to a hospital, how about an institution? He can bring his Peabody award with him...um, I mean his Polk (it's just as good! really!).
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ColbertWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
2. MATH! Who is this "Math" person and why isn't he in prison!? n/t
Edited on Mon Dec-08-08 08:50 PM by ColbertWatcher
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Cabcere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #2
72. "Math" is a LIBERAL PINHEAD!!!1!11!!
:silly:
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sarcasmo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 08:51 PM
Response to Original message
3. Murdoch should make that a pay per view event.
Billo's head explodes live on TEEVEE. 29.95 call your cable providers.
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Thegonagle Donating Member (548 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. Hell, I'd pay $89.95 pay-per-view.
But alas, I turned in my digital cable box, which lowered my bill $17 per month. No PPV or on-demand (or CSPAN2, the bastards!) for me without subscribing to the "digital tier."
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Tesha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #10
76. These days, C-SPAN streams all their channels on the Intertubes...
so you no longer need cable/satellite to watch them.

Tesha

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Speciesamused Donating Member (331 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #3
50. Too funny. Lol
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MrModerate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 08:54 PM
Response to Original message
4. Following cephalic detonation . . .
Hospitalization would be, err . . . heading in the wrong direction?
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femmocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 08:57 PM
Response to Original message
6. Happy to be the 5th K&R!
excellent news! :)
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trollybob Donating Member (116 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
7. Took long enough...
but beware of the "lies and the lying liars who tell them"
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MiniMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:03 PM
Response to Original message
8. I'm only up to 807, but there are 2633 on there to examine now
I get close and they add more
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. What are your numbers showing at 807?
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MiniMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. I'm up to 841 now
And I have Franken ahead by 42, which according to the website projects out to Franken winning by 141 plus or minus 178.
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Expect that margin to rise...
The more votes I counted the better things started to look, soon you will start seeing a lead that is larger than the margin of error.
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Mnpaul Donating Member (754 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:34 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. I'm up to 1510
I have Franken leading by 112. The second group of ballots seem to favor Franken.The "everyone" catagory has Franken up by 256.
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. So your margin is not quite as large
That makes me a little more nervous, but I assume that Franken has been in the lead for a long time at least?
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Mnpaul Donating Member (754 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #23
27. I rejected more ballots than most
If Franken voters would have asked for a new ballot instead of crossing out Coleman and selecting Franken, Franken would have easily won.
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. If the intent is clear then under MN law the vote counts.
If a person crosses out Coleman and votes Franken or vice-versa then the vote will be counted. Minnesota law is very clear on that situation, if the intent is clear then the vote counts even if the voter filled out the ballot incorrectly.
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Mnpaul Donating Member (754 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #29
33. Not exactly true
Subd. 3.Votes for too many candidates.If a voter places a mark (X) beside the names of more candidates for an office than are to be elected or nominated, the ballot is defective with respect only to that office. No vote shall be counted for any candidate for that office, but the rest of the ballot shall be counted if possible. At a primary, if a voter has not indicated a party preference and places a mark (X) beside the names of candidates of more than one party on the partisan ballot, the ballot is totally defective and no votes on it shall be counted. If a voter has indicated a party preference at a primary, only votes cast for candidates of that party shall be counted.

https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/statutes/?id=204C.2...
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. That only refers to overvotes.
Edited on Mon Dec-08-08 10:51 PM by MN Against Bush
Read that passage again and you will see it only refers to cases in which more than one candidate has marks next to their name, it does not say anything about either of the votes being crossed out. If one of the votes is crossed out then according to the Secretary of State's rules "if marks were made next to two candidates and an attempt to erase one of the two, vote is counted for the remaining marked candidate."

You can read all the rules on determining voter intent here: http://www.sos.state.mn.us/docs/voterintentmaterials.pd...
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Mnpaul Donating Member (754 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. If the SOS interpretation of the rule stands
Franken will win by 100's of votes
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Ichingcarpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. As Captain Picard said: Make it so
Do you all think this is a go for Al? This race is driving me crazy
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MiniMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Agreed
I think it will, but it will be close
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66 dmhlt Donating Member (935 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #12
74. As it is written, so let it be done.
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UTUSN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:04 PM
Response to Original message
9. For REAL?!1 FanTAStic!1 n/t
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Chan790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:20 PM
Response to Original message
13. Question:
As I am going through the ballots on the STrib website and a lot of the challenges on ballots (from both sides) are people writing people in for other races downticket being challenged as IDing the voter or as a distinguishing mark.

Does MN have either case law or precedent that would make these ballots clearly acceptable? I know here in CT you cannot challenge a write-in vote unless it fails another criterion. (Making it an over-vote or an inadmissible ballot.)

Otherwise, this could be wide open as these make up something like 50% of the (admittedly small sample of) 20 ballots I've reviewed thus far...but the vast majority of the Coleman challenges (as in all of them except two where intent for Franken was clear but Coleman was asserting they were overvotes with no clear intent.)
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #13
21. Few if any ballots will be thrown out on the basis distinguishing marks.
The ballots with write-ins that are being thrown out as "distinguishing marks" are frivolous challenges, people are allowed to vote for whoever they want to. If you want to vote for yourself as President you have every right to do that, and they can't throw out a person's senate vote because of who they voted for in a different race. Unless someone writes down "My name is John Doe" or something which is very clearly identifying the judges aren't going to throw out a ballot based on an identifying mark. Most of the challenges are frivolous so if it looks like a valid vote it almost certainly is.
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Chan790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. That would be my read as well...
but I was curious as to local precedent...I guess having seen it so often, I'm just wary of the absurd ways the GOP finds to steal elections on lame parlor tricks.
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #24
30. Local precedent shows that few challenges of opponents votes succeed.
The most successful challenges will be the ones in which the intent of the voter is clear but the ballot was filled out incorrectly. Challenging an opponents vote rarely works, as the precedent has always been for judges to count ballots when intent can be determined and if the ballot was initially read for a candidate it is most likely actually for them.
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quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #13
93. Another question
Why are identifying marks bad, anyway. I mean, Sure we have a secret ballot. But as a voter, I would have thought that was a right, not a responsibility. If I want to sign my name to my ballot, post a picture of my ballot on the internet, or Buy an hour of public access TV and rant about who I voted for, isn't that also my right, so long as its my choice not someone else forcing me to do it?
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wellstone dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-11-08 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #93
105. It is to make sure that people don't "sell" their votes
if there is a corrupt election judge, they can review signatures to be sure that people voted the way they said they would.
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MiniMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
16. One thing I noticed is that Obama/Biden was 2nd on the ballot for President
and Franken was 3rd on the ballot for Senator. It looks like a lot of people put a penmark or started to fill out the 2nd slot which is Coleman and realized they made a mistake. At least that is my take on it.
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Thegonagle Donating Member (548 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #16
26. In those particular cases, there is precedent.
Election officials I've talked to say that's actually very common, and the completely filled in oval would be counted; it would not be an overvote. The intent would be doubly clear when one sees that the voter filled in other ovals completely and properly.

BTW, the candidate order on MN ballots is "chosen" at random (with the write-in option being last).
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MiniMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:20 PM
Response to Reply #26
31. Just an observation from looking at the ballots
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wuushew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
17. Coleman is trading 69 on Intrade
If Franken is truly a lock a hansom profit stands to be made.
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gratuitous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:35 PM
Response to Original message
20. Coleman should concede
For the good of the state of Minnesota.
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wellstone dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:39 PM
Response to Original message
22. I voted on 508
and think I was very conservative, and have Franken by 17
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. Considering he started 192 behind being ahead by 17 is about where you should be right now.
As you vote on more ballots you will see that number increase.
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wellstone dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #22
100. I'm up to 608 now and the projected margin is 38. nt
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wellstone dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-11-08 08:09 PM
Response to Reply #100
106. 660 Franken projected by 110
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wellstone dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-11-08 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #106
107. Interestingly, the "everyone" category, now puts
Coleman in the lead. I wonder if the new ballots made the difference or if the site had been freeped.
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Mister Ed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:05 PM
Response to Original message
28. K&R. Thank you, MN Against Bush, for doing this research and keeping us informed. n/t
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DainBramaged Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
32. What is simply amazing is how utterly STUPID nearly half of all Minnesotans are
to have voted for Coleman, and how vulnerable Franken will be in 6 years.
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ScaryBob Donating Member (36 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #32
53. And lest we forget!
How many votes went to Barkley -- wasn't it about 250k or something? Now THAT'S the Ross Perot effect in action. If only a few hundred of those went to Franken instead...
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gratefultobelib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 11:00 PM
Response to Original message
36. I do so hope you're right. I'm from Missouri and have contributed several
times to his campaign. Coleman should never have been elected in the first place, we all know.
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zehnkatzen Donating Member (769 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 11:12 PM
Response to Original message
37. I demand that BillO cries like a little girl before his head asplodes. n/t k/r
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NBachers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 03:04 AM
Response to Original message
38. Thank you for this detailed update
It's like water to a thirsty man. My heart is pounding as I make my way down the comments. It can be so.
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davidpdx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 07:21 AM
Response to Original message
39. The lastest I'd heard is they didn't find the 133 ballots
Somehow I think we are going to get hosed on that one and they are going to claim they never exsisted. It seems very fishy to me.
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #39
40. The election officials have already confirmed they are lost...
There was an attempt to deny their existance at first, but after the discrepencies in their story were pointed out they admitted that yes they had lost the votes. We know exactly how many votes were on those ballots in the initial count however, and if those are counted in it will give Franken 46 net votes on top of the numbers I posted in my OP. My guess is those votes will be counted as the judges on the canvassing board are not going to want to disenfranchise people based on a clerical error, but even if those votes are not counted I would still predict a Franken win based off the challenged ballots.
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Dinger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
41. K & R!
Edited on Tue Dec-09-08 09:23 AM by Dinger
Thanks for posting.
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BrklynLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
42. If this is true, I may have to watch oLIElly just once to see the explosion...
but on the other hand, I am sure Keith will replay it many times.
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Piewhacket Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 01:35 PM
Response to Original message
43. GO AL GO!!!!!!
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ElboRuum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 01:38 PM
Response to Original message
44. Ooh. I hope we see this again!
And if you haven't seen it yet, be careful... NSFW!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5j2YDq6FkVE
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Cabcere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #44
73. Haha, I hadn't seen that one yet.
:rofl: Thanks for sharing.
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Castleman Donating Member (166 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 04:47 PM
Response to Original message
45. So his head explodes?
Big deal, it'd just be like a balloon popping, a sudden rush of air, and a noise. That head's as empty as Cheney's soul.
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AlbertCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #45
85. His head exploded in High School,
obviously. We just can't tell the difference.
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bertman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 05:06 PM
Response to Original message
46. Excellent!! I hope you're right.
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RandomThoughts Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 05:28 PM
Response to Original message
47. Franken when he is in the Senate.
Should once a week introduce a resolution cracking a joke on Bill O'Reilly.

LOL.

A short one liner with logic and his comic talent.

Ok just joking, and would not be appropriate... but it would be funny. LOL
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 05:43 PM
Response to Original message
48. That's great to know
And it's also great to know that this is all laid out clearly for the public to see -- so that if Coleman somehow is declared the winner, somebody is going to have a lot of explaining to do.
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barbtries Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 06:15 PM
Response to Original message
49. oh that's great!
i really like franken a lot.
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Dinger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 06:42 PM
Response to Original message
51. Kickin' Again For Exposure! (nt)
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desktop Donating Member (263 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 06:46 PM
Response to Original message
52. I will believe it when it happens
Maybe the math shows it, but unfortunately this will come down to politics, intimidation, and perhaps under the table deals. Who ever wins can expect lawsuits and political partisan calls for investigations. I'm skeptical, because Democrats lay down to much in the face of Republican pressure, as in the Democratic congress laying down for Bush for 8 years.
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Laelth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
54. k&r for some very good news. n/t
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cynthia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 09:04 PM
Response to Original message
55. I looked at 673
The Star Trib website is predicting that my projected vote totals would have Franken winning by 471 votes with a margin of error of +- 220

I voted 346 for Franken
279 for Coleman
and 48 for other, or no one

I found it really easy to determine the voter's intent most of the time. I think the canvassing board will have very few that require more than a few seconds of their consideration.

Disclaimer: I am a Franken supporter,

but I really did think it was easy to see the voter intent.
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 09:36 PM
Response to Reply #55
56. Update 1600 votes and numbers are holding steady for Franken...
I show him winning by 315 votes now with a 127 vote margin of error, these numbers have been holding fairly steady for quite a while which makes me all the more confident that they will hold throughout the process.
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cynthia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 10:32 PM
Response to Reply #56
59. i loved the ballot with "yes" written in each circle
At first I thought it was just a scribble, instead of filling in the circle completely like you're supposed to do. Then I realized that the curlicue scribble was exactly the same for every vote. Looking more closely, I saw that the voter had written the word "yes" in very tiny cursive script in each of the circles for her choices.

I visualize this voter as a senior woman.
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StreetKnowledge Donating Member (921 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 09:49 PM
Response to Original message
57. Stay well away when BillO's head blows up......
......it'll probably look like a scene out of Resident Evil when it does. And Keith Olbermann will play it over and over and over for weeks. And we'll all be happy to see it. :D
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bdamomma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 09:50 PM
Response to Original message
58. oh I hope Franken gets in.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-08 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
60. 3055 to vote on now. Still Franken by 256 +/- 87 for Everyone
That is such a clever thing they have there. I hope the trend stays the same.
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Ysabela Donating Member (208 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 01:05 AM
Response to Original message
61. When Al wins...
He'll be the only Senator I'll have ever shaken hands with. My cousin still has his book from a couple years ago that he signed during his Air America tours in Madison WI.
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 06:41 AM
Response to Original message
62. Imagine Rush Limbaugh saying the words, "Senator Franken."
It would be a sort of choking sound, followed by a heavy thud.
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onlyadream Donating Member (821 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 07:03 AM
Response to Original message
63. Please explain what they can challenge
for these votes and why it would be different for each camp - I don't get it. :shrug:
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 07:49 AM
Response to Reply #63
64. Many of the challenges are frivolous...
The Coleman campaign had a strategy at the beginning to make sure they consistently stayed in the lead by frivolously challenging Franken ballots so that the votes would not be counted for him until the canvassing board meets. Franken didn't want to look like he was falling too far behind so his campaign made some frivolous challenges as well.

There are other types of challenges too however, sometimes a campaign will challenge an undervote if they think there is a chance they can get the ballot counted for them. In other words when you only look at the number of challenged ballots by each campaign it doesn't mean too much because there are some challenges of the opponents ballots which will take a vote away from that opponent, and some challenges of undervotes or overvotes which will not subtract a vote from the opponents total. This makes it hard for anyone to know exactly how the challenged ballots will split unless they do what I did and take several hours to examine them.

It is usually very easy to determine how the judges will rule on these ballots. If the vote is clearly for one candidate the vote will almost certainly be counted for that candidate as most challenges are not successful. The judges do take voter intent into account even if the the voter filled out their ballot incorrectly. If they circled the name of the candidate rather than filled in the bubble that is still a valid vote. One thing that can result in a ballot being thrown out is if the voter writes a name on there or makes any other sort of identifying mark. There are many challenges on the basis of identifying marks, most of those challenges will be rejected by the judges and the votes will be counted however as when in doubt the judges are going to lean towards ruling that something is not an identifying mark as they don't like throwing out ballots on technicalities especially when the mark in question may not actually be identifying. Essentially you can figure out who the judges are going to rule for in the vast majority of cases through common sense. There were a very small number of ballots that were really filled out strangely and I don't know how the judges will rule on those ones, but the vast majority of them are obvious.
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onlyadream Donating Member (821 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #64
98. very interesting
I had no idea this kind of stuff went on.
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wurzel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #63
81. A vote for McCain is a vote for Coleman.
It was reported that Coleman challenged votes where the voter had clearly voted for McCain and for Franken on the grounds that anyone who voted for McCain must have intended to vote for Coleman.
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sofa king Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 08:19 AM
Response to Original message
65. If Al had taken my advice and worn that Godzilla suit, he'd be a lock.
(Could a helpful DU reader supply me with a punchline by linking to the "lizard people" ballot?)
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bluesmail Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
66. Coleman's being investigated by the feds.
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lovuian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 08:46 AM
Response to Original message
67. Awesome News
Go Al
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Brewman_Jax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
68. I like the idea of
BillO's head exploding, a la Scanners



:D
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Enthusiast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 09:07 AM
Response to Original message
69. I pray it is so! nt
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Mudoria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
70. I'm happy it appears Franken won (I think)
but really, wouldn't it have been a lot easier and more clear if they had simply had a runoff election?
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bullwinkle428 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
71. O'Reilly compared himself to Jesus this morning in an NPR interview...
I only wish I was kidding.

"FOX News TV host Bill O'Reilly describes himself "as the most controversial journalist and commentator in the United States of America." In his memoir, A Bold Fresh Piece of Humanity, he explains how he got that way.

O'Reilly says the book's title comes straight from his childhood, when a nun used the phrase to describe him as she punished him for misbehaving in her third-grade class.

"Some people thought Jesus was evil; they nailed him to a cross," O'Reilly said.

That led to a question: Was he now comparing himself to Jesus Christ?

"No, but I'm giving you an analogy that's vivid," O'Reilly answered."

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=98...
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singingbiscuit Donating Member (103 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #71
75. Oh fer CHRISSAKES!
had to say it

;-)
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pipi_k Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #71
77. I've often wondered...
if Jesus really was evil.

or maybe had a few mental problems, at the very least.


The reason I wonder is because of what he says in John 14:5....

"I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me..."

Wow. It takes a pretty big ego to say something like that. The fact that he said it nearly 2000 years ago only adds to the disturbance factor for me because all we have is second hand accounts from people who believed whatever he had to say.

Much like....Bush supporters. It would be interesting to travel a hundred or five hundred years into the future to see what History has to say about George W Bush. I would imagine his hateful legacy would be much watered-down by then, and he might even be seen as being the "liberator" he thinks he is. Only we, who had lived through his disaster, would know the reality.


So anyway, back to Jesus...someone claiming he is the only one who can confer something that huge (a way to God) upon believers....I dunno...to me it's highly suspicious.

And here we have Billow Reilly trying to share the crucifix spotlight with one of the most famous men in History.

Anyway, I know that I'm probably opening myself up to some pretty vicious bashing from the Jesus lovers out there, but hey...it's only my own opinion, after all, and not likely to change Religion in any way.

:)

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AlbertCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #77
87. "I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me..."
Since that was written hundreds of years after the real Jesus by some anonymous writer, you can stop worrying.
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riqster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #77
89. Plus, there are translation issues to consider
Hebrew-Greek, Greek-Greek, Greek to Middle-English, Middle English-English, and so on.

Not to mention the editing and expurgating of the gospels at Nicea, where the Paulines won the 'worship over follow' fight within the church, with the help of the Roman Empire. Yep. The same empire that iced their savior became the Church's partner a few short centuries later.
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AlbertCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #89
91. Hebrew-Greek, Greek-Greek, Greek to Middle-English, Middle English-English, and so on.
Especially since Jesus would have spoken Aramaic.
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riqster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #91
94. Good catch!
I left that out, along with Greek-English, Aramaic-English, Hebrew-English,various Koines,etc. (The Old Testament figures into these arguments, too.) The point remains that, not only was this oral history that wasn't documented until centuries after the events occurred, but humans had many opportunities to muck it up further as time went on.
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AlbertCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #71
86. Next he'll be saying he's more popular than the Beatles!
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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:03 AM
Response to Original message
78. I hope you are right!
Why does the Franken campaign claim they lead by 4 votes? If your analysis is correct, wouldn't they be claiming a higher margin?
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #78
82. I think the Franken campaign knows they are ahead by more than they are claiming...
People are already questioning Franken's claim of a lead and I think they know if they were to claim a much higher lead people would be questioning them even more. Don't get me wrong I am sure that the Franken campaign had a methodology for coming up with that number, but it is just an estimate based off that methodology they are using. Their number is not perfect, and my number is not perfect either. Until the canvassing board meets there will be no perfect number, but all the evidence points to a Franken lead.
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thereismore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
79. It looks like they have 3055 ballots on the website now. nt
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harmonicon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
80. I have it painfully close....
after 306 ballots, I've got it at Coleman: 127, Franken: 153, other: 26, which extrapolates to Franken up by 373, but with a +/- of 333. Who fucking knows....
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #80
84. With only 306 ballots examined you can expect a wide margin of error...
But if you look at those numbers you will see that even in your early analysis Franken's lead is outside the margin of error. As you check more ballots you will see the margin of error get smaller and Franken's lead remain fairly steady between a 275 and 375 vote lead.
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harmonicon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #84
103. after 1,000, I have it still within the margin of error
unfortunately, with Coleman even projected ahead by a few dozen votes. Just too damn close.... makes me feel icky. However, I do thank you for introducing me to my new favourite online game.
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Piewhacket Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
83. Arrrrggggggggg.......
With three million votes, how can a race be this CLOSE!!!

The only other race this close was the 2000 Presidential election
where Bush won by 1 vote (Scalia's).
That reminds me, impeach Scalia and Thomas.

I can't stand it! WIN THIS THING AL!!!!!
Damn.
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:51 AM
Response to Original message
88. Awesome Site! I Have To Say SHAME On BOTH Candidates Though For Their Bullshit.
I've never really seen challenged ballots before and I'm amazed at the pettiness as to why votes are allowed to be challenged. The OVERWHELMING number of ballots are more than obvious as to voter intent and should NEVER have been challenged at all. It's like each side looked for every slightest little fucking reason to try and disqualify the ballot and I say shame on both sides for their bullshit. I say that both to franken and coleman. Just because the coleman camp was being so petty doesn't mean the franken camp had to match them. Just look at those ballots. Would ANYONE argue against the intent of almost all of them? Soooooo obvious. What a monumental waste of time for Minnesota to now have to go through these one by one. I find the challenges disgusting; cause each one means someone tried to steal the right to vote from somebody just for sake of victory, even though the voters intent was beyond clear. Politicians can be such scumbags.

Having that said, I still am crossing my fingers that Franken will pull this out. Your OP is very encouraging!
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Bjorn Against Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #88
90. I agree with you there, most of the challenges are frivolous...
Yes, both campaigns should be ashamed by the challenges they have made. I think both campaigns do know one thing however, the judges on the canvassing board are not going to accept their frivolous challenges. I don't think the reason they are making these challenges is to attempt to overturn the will of the voters, they know that will not work because the judges are not so petty to allow them to get by with that crap. I think the real reason they are making the challenges is to make it appear that they are doing well in the recount. When a challenge is made that is a vote that won't be counted for a couple of weeks, so by challenging votes the candidates are able to make their own totals look better. I think the Coleman campaigns strategy was to make sure they remained in the lead throughout the hand recount process so they would challenge as many ballots as it took to do that. The Franken campaign didn't want it to look like they were falling too far behind however so they also made all kinds of frivolous challenges so that it did not appear that Coleman was pulling ahead by a large margin. Both campaigns have basically admitted to this, and some of these challenges have now been withdrawn. I would expect hundreds more to be withdrawn before the canvassing board meets next week as well, the judges are not going to be happy if they have to waste their time discussing ballots in which the intent is clear and neither campaign has any incentive in pissing the judges off.
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David Zephyr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 12:32 PM
Response to Original message
92. Kick.
!
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ladywnch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
95. when is the canvassing board decision due? n/t
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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #95
96. The canvassing board will meet Dec 16th to begin review of challenges
They will continue meeting until they get it done. SOS Ritchie has said he hoped they could finish up the 19th but at the very least before Christmas. It really depends how many challenges remain, and what sort of methodology they use if any for sorting into categories for review.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 03:08 PM
Response to Original message
97. I would hope so. I believe the exit polls showed Franken winning.
I was surprised that night it was so close.

Go Al!


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quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
99. I hate to be a wet blanket
But I come up different than others, apparently. It hurts me every time I click Coleman, But if I answer them in a way honest to my own conscience, I have Coleman leading the challenges 50% to 45%. I am hoping this changes as I do more, But I Don't have much hope. Other than the hope that 57.5 senate seats will be enough.
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wellstone dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #99
101. How many have you done, I also had Coleman ahead during the
first several hundred.
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quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #101
104. at 200
I had Coleman ahead by 600. At 300, it was down to about 200, and at 400, I had coleman by 44. we will see It does seem to be balancing some, but so far its been consistantly in Colemans favor after the first 10
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psquare Donating Member (76 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-10-08 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
102. I've gone through 534 ballots (so far) and have Franken winning
by a projected 207 vote margin (Franken 264 - Coleman 232 - Other 38) if carried through to the remainder of the ballots. I would say that 9 out of every 10 are very obvious, it's hard to determine what the grounds were for showing the voter's intent.

I just hope that this goes to the court and they are as non-partisan as I tried to be. If that happens, it looks like Mr. Al Franken will be going to Washington!
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wellstone dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-12-08 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
108. 790 votes, predict Franken by 86
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