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THEY SAY WE HAVE BEEN IN A RECESSION FOR OVER A YEAR

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luckyleftyme2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:30 AM
Original message
THEY SAY WE HAVE BEEN IN A RECESSION FOR OVER A YEAR

Why are the experts claiming we have been in a recession for at least a year?
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groovedaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
1. It's very interesting, given all those who emphatically stated we weren't
in a recession.

I'd love see a compilation of quotes from the Bush adm. in the past year that say we weren't in a recession.
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Lerkfish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. but...but...the foundations of our economy is STRONG according to maclame.
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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #1
5.  Olbermann could do something like that. He's compiled a list of
george's lies to make a point, on past shows. He should do this with george's lies about the strong economy over the past yr.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
2. Because we have been.
The economy started to turn down in late '07 and it really hasn't looked back since.
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elleng Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
3. They've finally seen the
data that allow them to say it, officially; its like when you go to the doc, you're sure you've got strep, but doc won't say 'yes' until strep test is finally in. Unfortunately, 'recession test' takes 1 year!
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YOY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
6. I've been saying it for years.
Nobody believed me.
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FormerDittoHead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Depending upon where you live, or industry, there's been a recession for decades. n/t
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
7. It's a matter of definitions
Edited on Mon Dec-08-08 09:44 AM by depakid
The narrow "dictionary definition" of recession:

A period of general economic decline, defined usually as a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer. Marked by high unemployment, stagnant wages, and fall in retail sales, a recession generally does not last longer than one year and is much milder than a depression.


National Bureau of Economic Research's broader amalgam:

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.

Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee believes that domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity.

The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. This series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then.

The committee believes that the two most reliable comprehensive estimates of aggregate domestic production are normally the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Product and the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Income, both produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In concept, the two should be the same, because sales of products generate income for producers and workers equal to the value of the sales.

However, because the measurement on the product and income sides proceeds somewhat independently, the two actual measures differ by a statistical discrepancy. The product-side estimates fell slightly in 2007Q4, rose slightly in 2008Q1, rose again in 2008Q2, and fell slightly in 2008Q3.

The income-side estimates reached their peak in 2007Q3, fell slightly in 2007Q4 and 2008Q1, rose slightly in 2008Q2 to a level below its peak in 2007Q3, and fell again in 2008Q3. Thus, the currently available estimates of quarterly aggregate real domestic production do not speak clearly about the date of a peak in activity.

Other series considered by the committeeincluding real personal income less transfer payments, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and employment estimates based on the household surveyall reached peaks between November 2007 and June 2008.

The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession, as set forth in the second paragraph of this document.

All evidence other than the ambiguous movements of the quarterly product-side measure of domestic production confirmed that conclusion. Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months.

More: http://wwwdev.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html


As is typically the case, the trouble lies in pigeonholing- and the mass media's inability (and unwillingness) to present more complex notions to folks in an effort to appease both the corporate conglomerates- and the lowest common denominator viewers, who they don't want to "bore with the details."
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madrchsod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-08-08 11:08 AM
Response to Original message
9. they live in an alternate universe
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