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MN SOS results would hint at Franken win by 200 vtes

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Thor_MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-08 07:58 AM
Original message
MN SOS results would hint at Franken win by 200 vtes
Taking the results from last night, which has 26 precincts yet to report their recount results and factoring in the original results from those precincts, gives the win to Franken by 200 votes. a mere 7 thousands of one percent. Franken has 4658 vote lead currently, the 26 precincts original had Coleman up by a total of 4458. This is assuming that the contested ballots cancel each other out (a huge leap of faith, ~6500 ballots) and the recounts don't come up with any huge surprizes (you hear me, Minneapolis Ward 3, precinct 1?).

It bother the heck out of me that I can't post a table, so my apologies for the following mess.

County Precinct Coleman Franken
SCOTT BELLE PLAINE TWP 242 126
SCOTT BLAKELEY TWP. 148 63
SCOTT PRIOR LAKE P-5 1109 488
SCOTT PRIOR LAKE P-6A 850 368
SCOTT SAVAGE P-3 1052 723
SCOTT SAVAGE P-7 1284 703
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-1 380 358
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-2 425 438
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-3 438 508
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-4 580 537
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-5 530 441
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-6 622 459
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-7 606 247
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-8 622 478
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-9 546 344
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-10 1043 965
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-11 1103 723
SCOTT SHAKOPEE P-12 459 392
WRIGHT BUFFALO TWP 627 276
WRIGHT DAYTON 10 12
WRIGHT HANOVER 698 308
WRIGHT MONTROSE 677 429
WRIGHT VICTOR TWP 320 165
WRIGHT WAVERLY 332 196
BELTRAMI HAMRE TWP 2 5
HENNEPIN MINNEAPOLIS W-3 P-01 595 1090

15300 10842

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blueclown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-08 08:00 AM
Response to Original message
1. I think we have reason to be more confident given the news over the past few days.
But things really haven't changed in the grand scheme. This race, just like how it was 2-3 weeks ago, will be decided by how the challenges fall.
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mucifer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-08 08:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. yeah we have to wait til the 16th.
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riqster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-08 08:07 AM
Response to Original message
3. It helps from a psychological standpoint
If there is a "Franken is in the lead" perception, it is harder for the Coulters to push another Florida 2000 "sore loser" meme.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-08 08:12 AM
Response to Original message
4. I'm not sure I understand how Franken get's 451 vote swing in those 2 counties
?
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Thor_MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-08 08:27 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Different theories on counting.
Because it gives their choice a lead, several media outlets choose to factor in contested ballots, like they mean something before the Canvassing board decides on them. I chose to use the Secretary of States numbers as counted, and then applied the original counts of the missing precincts. This, of course, relies on the notion that the challenged ballots and the counting errors in the missing precincts are a random distribution that will tend towards half of those ballots going each way.


Given that the "voter intent increases" tend to favor Franken, I feel a little better. Given that the Minneapolis precinct has a missing envelope of ballots, I feel sick to my stomach.

What is clear is this is not Florida and there will be no "Brooks Brothers riot" influencing this election. We vote on paper ballots, use machines to count them when the election is not close and do hand counts when they are. I think there are more than a few states that would be well served by taking a look at our system.
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trailrunners Donating Member (76 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-08 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. What's up with the media?
Why is the stupid MSM pushing that Coleman has a bigger lead that he did earlier then? It doesn't make sense. Don't they look at the SOS website?
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