" McCain Leads Obama In Latest Zogby Poll", can anyone confirm the validity of this?

[whistle]

<snip>
Zogby Shocker: McCain Leads Obama In Latest Poll

Dick Morris tells Newsmax that Friday night's polling for Zogby of 1000 likely voters shows a huge shift for John McCain. Zogby's poll, conducted on Friday night only, has McCain at 48% and Obama at 47%.

Zogby's overall poll has Obama with a lead — but that's based on a three-day average that includes Wednesday and Thursday polling data.

"There is a seismic shift for McCain; it could turn into an earthquake this weekend," Dick Morris told Newsmax.

"I think a large of the credit goes to GOPTrust.com for it's courageous use of the Rev. Wright ad and the many tens of thousands who have donated almost $9 million before election day," Dick Morris added.

<sent to me in an email a few minutes ago>

[Bicoastal]

1. Dude, this is SO last night.

[Janice325]

2. Gosh, if Dick Morris says it, it must be true!

:sarcasm:
PS. The ":sarcasm:" isn't intended toward you, whistle.

[The Traveler]

3. A post earlier today

had Zogby predicting an Obama victory. :shrug:

I'll see if I can find it fer ya ...

Trav

[whistle]

6. So the Zogby poll is bullshit then, mechanical survey with no real

...statistical validity, eh

[The Traveler]

12. Suppose so ... check this out ...

Zogby thread

[Whoa_Nelly]

8. Here is the latest from Zogby home page: Obama 49.1%/McCain 44.1%

http://www.zogby.com/

And the breakdown page:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1622

[The Traveler]

15. Yer pretty quick with those links ...

Methinks you are a DU code slinger ... :)

[Whoa_Nelly]

23. Naw...am just TQOFE

;)

[The Traveler]

24. TQOFE??

Too Quick can't even imagine what OFE decrypts to.

Yer confusing an old man! Whaugh!

:hi:

[Whoa_Nelly]

27. TQOFE

The Queen Of Fucking Everything :evilgrin:

[Bluebear]

4. A Dick Morris/Newsmax fantasy

[madrchsod]

5. dick morris-newmax ..loser combo.

[underpants]

11. Dick just got confused

someone walked by him in in open-toed shoes

[FVZA_Colonel]

7. Well, Obama gained in Gallup, Rasmussen, and at least one other poll today.

Nate gives a pretty good explanation of the poll that he posted last night: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

[whistle]

13. I saw the Rasmussen projections of Obama/McCain electoral votes

...several days ago and they were putting Obama way ahead. But I thought after the early voting closed the national poll companies stopped attempting to project the outcomes. :shrug:

[Contrary1]

9. Read this:

"...Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much)."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html

[whistle]

18. Sounds like Zogby is the choice of data manipulators, the propaganda crowd on the right

...generating confusion, doubts, conflicts and misinformation. :yoiks:

[louis-t]

10. This is sorta like the last season of Roseanne.

The family wins the lottery and Dan survives a heart attack. Except it turns out that they didn't win the lottery and Dan died of a heart attack. The whole season was her delusion. Do you think repugs will go around saying "President McCain" even after he loses? :crazy:

[melody]

14. The only "seismic shift" is caused by Dick Morris' violent wind-passing at the certainty of doom

Nate addressed it last night http://fivethirtyeight.com

[Warpy]

16. No, but Zogby got Magoo into the margin of error by push polling

The story is at http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/15/13844/116.

I considered dropping out of the poll when I read those questions, I couldn't believe that it was so nakedly anti Obama. However, I realize that Zogby is generally an outfit that does commercial polling for corporations and admen, so this looked like they were hired by the right to find out which shit throwing campaign was likeliest to work.

I have a feeling none of them worked spectacularly enough since the right is flailing around, throwing whatever their hands land on from under their rocks.

I am actually glad they published the results of this shit poll. I think more people will be motivated to stand in line on Tuesday rather than saying to hell with it and going home if they think their votes might be vital to getting rid of the Republicans.

[mhddem]

17. Ignore the perfectly timed Zobgy "shocker"

His daily numbers have been very erratic this week. The three day must be something like 11, 5, -1. The 11 falls off tonight so assuming average numbers around 5-7 he has two days of a three point race perfectly timed for Drudge. Then Tuesday morning the -1 drops off and he will be back to 5-7 for election day.

[Tikki]

20. Hey, Hi mhddem....Welcome to DU

:hi: :bounce: Go Obama/Biden

Tikki

[whistle]

22. What kind of system is that? Fibonacci numbers?

<snip>
Fibonacci Numbers
by: Stephanie J. Morris


Fibonacci numbers and the Fibonacci sequence are prime examples of "how mathematics is connected to seemingly unrelated things." Even though these numbers were introduced in 1202 in Fibonacci's book Liber abaci, they remain fascinating and mysterious to people today.

Fibonacci, who was born Leonardo da Pisa "son of Bonaccio", gave a problem in his book whose solution was the Fibonacci sequence as we know it today. The now famous problem appeared in Liber abaci which was one of the first works on equations to be published by a European.


Fibonacci's Problem:

"Start with a pair of rabbits, (one male and one female) born on January 1. Assume that all months are of equal length and that :


1. rabbits begin to produce young two months after their own birth;

2. after reaching the age of two months, each pair produces a mixed pair, (one male, one female), and then another mixed pair each month thereafter; and

3. no rabbit dies.


How many pairs of rabbits will there be after one year?"

<MORE>

http://jwilson.coe.uga.edu/EMT669/Student.Folders/Morris.Stephanie/EMT.669/Essay.3/Fibonacci.Essay.html


No wonder the right wing is opposed to birth control

[dkofos]

19. They only polled repubes for that one. Not to worry.

[pnwmom]

21. It's not a LEAD when it's within the margin of error, and with a sample size

of only about 400 voters, the margin of error is quite large.

[Generic Other]

25. A number of us can confirm it is suspicious!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4349812

[Poiuyt]

26. This was discussed at 538

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

more -

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html