Hilzoy: Bailout: The Final Bill

[babylonsister]

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_09/014931.php

September 29, 2008
By: Hilzoy


Bailout: The Final Bill

I don't think our Congress has faced a more important decision than whether or not to pass the bailout bill in decades, perhaps longer. (Summary here; CBO analysis here.) To state what is beyond obvious: it is incredibly important to set aside our preconceptions, whatever they may be, and really think hard about whether to support this bill or not. If you're easily alarmed by predictions of disaster, think long and hard about how long it will take to pay this off. If you're inclined to think that experts telling you that you need to fork over large sums of money are necessarily wrong, go back and listen to the audio clips near the end of my last post. Look at the graphs and the pictures. Think hard.

The costs of being wrong, in either direction, are staggering. This is not a time to leap to conclusions.

It is also, in my judgment, not a time for those of us who are not professional economists to imagine that we can sort things out without expert advice. I have read some bloggers who have no background in economics or finance, who are nonetheless sure that there is/is not a crisis, or that the bill under discussion obviously is/is not necessary. We're lucky enough to live at a time when experts provide good analysis very quickly. We should use it.

snip//

For my part, I support it. There are a lot of people who I respect who are genuinely worried that we might be on the brink of a serious depression, and who think this would help avert or mitigate it. But I hate this.

It also seems to me to be really important to keep my anger focussed where it should be: partly on the people whose deals got us into this mess, but much more importantly, on the legislators who failed to do their jobs, or who allowed themselves to be seduced by idiotic economic theories which were, as it happened, in the interests of powerful lobbies.

We're obviously going to have to pass some serious regulation to prevent this from happening again. I'm happy to postpone that: I think the next Congress is likely to do a better job in any case. They are also likely to pass some real assistance to homeowners; again, while I'd rather this happen now, since people need help now, I think the next Congress is likely to do a better job.

We will also have to have some serious deficit spending. Regulation might prevent the next disaster, but it will not help with this one. I'm normally a deficit hawk, but I have absolutely no problem with the idea of rebuilding a whole lot of infrastructure if it helps us head off the problems that are surely coming.

Which is all to say: I support the bailout, but I do not imagine for a moment that it will do more than mitigate the damage, or that we will work our way out of it without a whole lot more work, and a whole lot more pain.

[lazer47]

1. 99% of the time I agree with you

But I have a question?? why bail out wall street?? and not bailout the middle class?? why bail out oil executives before we bring down gas prices? When was the last time a bank bailed you out?? Just asking??

[babylonsister]

2. I think the majority of people think something needs to be done,

whether we like it or not. I know next to nothing about what is really going on, but I do take some comfort in this. I don't want this election to get derailed in any way either.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/tarp-draft/

Krugman is fairly satisfied with the bailout plan - "sufficiently not-awful"..can be fixed next year

TARP draft

So there’s a draft version of the bailout out there. Pretty much as expected. Section 113, MINIMIZATION OF LONG-TERM COSTS AND MAXIMIZATION OF BENEFITS FOR TAXPAYERS, is where the rubber meets the road — it’s where the plan says something about how the deals will be done.

As I read it, Treasury can
(1) conduct reverse auctions and suchlike
(2) buy directly — but only if it gets equity warrants or, in companies that don’t issue stock, senior debt

My view is that (1) will be ineffective but also not a bad deal for taxpayers — firms that can afford to will dump their toxic waste at low prices, the way some already have on the private market, and taxpayers may end up making money in the end. Firms in big trouble will probably stay away from the auctions. The plan’s real traction, if any, is in (2), which is a backdoor way to provide troubled firms with equity — and the bill seems to say that taxpayers have to own this equity, although I wish it was clearer how much equity will be judged sufficient.

Not a good plan. But sufficiently not-awful, I think, to be above the line; and hopefully the whole thing can be fixed next year.

Add: House staff tells me that there are significant changes from this draft. More info when I get it.