Latest Polls and Obama's Lead - But don't be complacent!

[DemoRabbit]

Link: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

"Changes of this velocity are unusual outside of the convention periods and the debates, especially in close elections. It took John McCain about 60 days and tens of millions of advertising dollars to whittle Obama's lead down from roughly 5 points at its peak in early June, to the 1-point lead that Obama held heading into the conventions. Obama has swing the numbers that much in barely a week.

"Of course, we never really were entirely outside of gravitational field of the conventions, and probably at least half of this bounceback for Obama is merely the more-or-less inevitable consequence of McCain's convention bounce ending. But the fact is that Obama is in a stronger position now than he was immediately before the conventions. We now have him winning the election 71.5 percent of the time, which is about as high as that number has been all year."



I've been watching this site over the last two weeks and the change towards Obama has been pretty dramatic... it's a great site with lots of good informationl

DO NOT FEEL LIKE YOU CAN RELAX THOUGH!! We need to all keep fighting and working and spreading the word. We need to keep donating and volunteering!

[BrklynLiberal]

1. Thanks. i agree the fight is far from over..but this kind of info keeps me from being totally

depressed by the thought that McSame and the barracuda have a chance.

[WarbirdForObama]

2. Relax?

I won't breathe easy til 01/20/09 12:30pm EDT.

Not until I hear President Elect Barack Obama take the Oath of Office, and that dribbling moron who currently resides at the 1600 Pennsylvannia Ave leaves Washington for the LAST time!

[magellan]

3. As long as the polls show it's close enough for the Repubs to steal

...there's no such thing as "relax". I've been on this roller coaster ride before....

[Maraya1969]

4. I watched Fox saying that McCain had a big lead over Obama

I wish there was some way to punish them for spreading false rumors.

[central scrutinizer]

5. Another good site for analysis

They have the daily EV prediction as Obama 292, McW 246

http://election.princeton.edu/

The state-poll Meta-Analysis history reached an extreme yesterday, as I predicted. Today it jumped sharply upward. It will continue to follow national poll trends with a delay.

At a national level, the post-GOP convention bounce is definitively over. Nine polls give a median margin of Obama leading by 4.0 +/- 1.3 %. The transition away from a McCain lead coincided with the McCain and Palin television appearances and the Saturday Night Live takedown by Tina Fey.

much more analysis at link and reportedly these guys exactly nailed the 2004 results