Dr. Jeff Masters (Weather Undeground) wonders about 400 People who stayed on Bolivar Peninsula...

[KoKo]

Ike's damage

In its wake, Ike has left a Texas-sized disaster. AIR Worldwide, Inc, is estimating that total insured damage in Texas and Louisiana will be $10 billion. An additional $1 billion in damage was likely done in the Gulf of Mexico, due to wind and wave damage to oil platforms and the indirect loss of revenue attributable to reductions in oil and gas production. Using the usual rule of thumb that total hurricane damages are double the insured damages, the price tag for Ike will be about $22 billion. That would make Ike the third costliest hurricane in history. Only Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did more damage than Ike has. AIR has not yet factored in the damage done to the Midwest on Sunday. Other risk-modeling insurance firms are estimating the total on-shore insured property damage will range between $6 billion and $18 billion. These estimates place Ike somewhere between the sixth and second most destructive hurricane on record.

The media is focusing primarily on two main areas in this massive disaster--the destruction in Galveston, and the plight of millions living in Houston and its suburbs. I'd like to call attention to two hard-hit areas mostly ignored by the media--the Bolivar Peninsula just northeast of Galveston, and coastal Louisiana.


The Bolivar Peninsula


If you take a ferry from Galveston northeast across the Galveston Bay inlet, you arrive at the small town of Port Bolivar, which sits at the end of the 25 mile-long Bolivar Peninsula. Since the peninsula was situated on the right front side of Ike's eye, it took the worst of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters measured 110 mph winds at the shore when Ike made landfall, and Ike's highest storm surge hit the peninsula. The exact height of the storm surge is unknown, since there were no tide gauges there. Based on reports of a storm surge of 11 feet at Galveston Island and 13.5 feet at the Louisiana/Texas border, it is likely that storm surge heights along the Bolivar Peninsula were 15 feet or higher. Photos taken by the Coast Guard yesterday (Figure 2) of the Bolivar Peninsula show damage characteristic of a 15+ foot high storm surge--homes washed off their foundations and completely destroyed. The hurricane probably cut new channels through the peninsula, and it will be difficult for rescuers to reach the area.


Figure 2. Coast Guard photo of the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike. All the houses along this section were washed off their foundations by the storm surge and destroyed. Image credit: bolivar.org.

Some have criticized the National Weather Service for overwarning, with their pronouncement of "certain death" for those who ignored evacuation orders. Well, I don't think anyone in the Bolivar Peninsula will complain that they were overwarned. While death was not certain among those who weathered the storm in houses pulverized by the storm surge, it was probable. According to the New York Times, one Bolivar Peninsula resident was washed all the way across across Galveston Bay to the mainland after the storm surge destroyed his house and threw him into the water. A helicopter picked him up. So far, there are three confirmed deaths on the peninsula, from the town of Port Bolivar. The peninsula had a population of 3,800, of which 500 did not evacuate. As many as 90 people were rescued from the peninsula in the hours leading up to the storm, but at least 400 people remained. Most of these people are as yet unaccounted for. According to news reports, 80% of the buildings on the peninsula were destroyed.

The moral: we don't know precisely where a hurricane will hit, which necessitates dire warnings for portions of the coast that will not receive the worst of the storm. The worst of a hurricane affects only a relatively narrow portion of the coast. And the worst of Hurricane Ike--the third most damaging hurricane of all time--was very, very bad indeed.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1086&tstamp=200809

[uppityperson]

1. k&r I wonder about them also. Link and story, coming up with bodies.

http://nytimes.com/2008/09/15/us/15scene.html

On Sunday afternoon, a team from the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department pulled up with five boats in tow, offering to take some of the rescue workers out to the flooded section of the peninsula, along with a postal inspector they had brought along. They did not have ice, water or other supplies; their sole aim was to survey the area.

Mr. Faulkner, eager to assess the situation for himself, got aboard one of the boats. About an hour later, he called a volunteer member of the Crystal Beach emergency service, Rey Leija, to give a report.

Mr. Leija walked over to a small knot of workers, cellphone in hand. “They’re coming up with bodies already,” he said. Officials declined to say more.

As the sun set over the waterlogged farmland, the boats began to return. Cathy Rush, who said she was the peninsula’s only paramedic, climbed off to report what she had seen: No bodies, but slabs where houses had been, and houses parked on the highway.

[KoKo]

5. What an odd article in the NYT.

Thanks for posting. Does the last paragraph make any sense? What about those people? Why send a "postal inspector" along with the rescue group? The conclusion of the article seems to leave it open as to the fate of those who stayed behind who weren't rescued.

[Ex Lurker]

8. two possibilities

1. Survey damage to postal facilities, etc.

2. It doesn't have anything to do with his regular job, and he's part of a multijurisdictional task force, and there just because they need as many people as they can get.

[malaise]

16. On KHOU they explained that the postal inspector was sent

to see if there was anywhere left to operate as a postal station.

And yes we don't know what happened to the people who remained although they did find 60 people who survived yesterday.

[thewiseguy]

2. The focus should not be as much on Galveston

They got the northern eyewall. I knew when the storm made landfall that someone else to the east of Galveston was royally screwed.

[Ghost Dog]

15. But there seems to be a news lockdown on an area known as "West Galveston"? n/t

[ben_meyers]

3. I wonder what part of "certain death" and we aren't risking

1st responders lives to save you these people didn't understand?

I guess there is always someone, and next time there will probably be more.

[lastliberalintexas]

4. There was a clusterfuck the week before in the Gustav evac

A lot of people couldn't or, yes, wouldn't evacuate again just a week later. There was also too much optimism over the fact that this was only a Cat 2 storm, even though the weather people kept saying it had the surge of at least a 3.

This is SE Texas' 4th event in 3 years, with 2 of them major. I really have no idea how Floridians handle this. I'm ready to move to Nebraska. :(

[Barack_America]

6. I wonder what part of "I don't have a car or means to evacuate" you don't understand. nt

[alarimer]

7. Those people on Bolivar likely had cars.

If I'm not mistaken this is a fishing community so they also had boats.

But the fact is there was a hotline set up for rides. But by Friday the water blocked the peninsula so there was no way out. The evacuation began much too late to be effective.

[EFerrari]

11. That's it. By the time they figured out where it would hit

and issued the order, it was late. The storm hit earlier, too. So a lot of people who were fixing to leave got caught Friday morning with the water already too high when they woke up.

[Rage for Order]

9. Well, there is this

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/5996000.html

Thursday, Sept 11 - (Galveston mayor's spokeswoman) Naschke said efforts were going smoothly to bus about 2,800 residents who lack their own transportation to shelters in Austin. Galveston officials said all shelters on the island would be closed and that 75 buses would move about 3,600 residents who need transportation.

And this, also from Thursday

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/28252789.html

Perry said this morning there were 2,650 government officials on a conference call to prepare for the storm. He said he has activated 7,500 members of the National Guard.

Perry said there also are 1,300 buses and 100 ambulances helping evacuation those who cannot do it themselves. Additionally, six C-130 aircraft from the Texas State Guard are participating in the evacuation of Galveston.

Or this, again from Thursday

http://arklatexhomepage.com/content/fulltext/?cid=36621

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas is now asking residents who have not evacuated the island to go ahead and leave before Ike arrives.

Thomas said the mandatory evacuation order is effective as of 9:30 a.m. today. This is in addition to the mandatory evacuation already underway for the west end of the island which went into effect earlier this morning.

Galveston evacuation routes include I-45 northbound, FM 3005 south to San Luis Pass or the Bolivar Ferry to Highway 87.
The ferry itself will close at 11 p.m. tonight. Mayor Thomas says there will be no shelters on the island.

Those with special needs will be evacuated on buses leaving from a facility at 47th Street and Broadway starting at 2 p.m. this afternoon.

Anyone who feels they need help evacuating from Galveston can go to any bus stop and they will be taken to the 47th Street facility.


There were many ways for people to evacuate if they didn't have their own transportation. Did a few people fall through the cracks? Probably so. However, those people are the exception rather than the rule. More likely, this is why they didn't evacuate:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hZHORCLIPjSS7Rx7DN5XGugStOmA

Galveston neighbors Celia Padnos and Leslie LeGrande said they were jaded after evacuating before Hurricane Rita in 2005 veered away at the last minute. They plan to say at home if Ike is anything less than a category three hurricane.

"I hate driving and I ended up driving for 14 hours to Austin (normally a 3.5 hour drive) with one cat, all my family photos, food and two young children in the car," said Padnos, recalling Hurricane Rita.

"Unless it's really bad, we don't want to go anywhere," said LeGrande.

If forced to evacuate, LeGrande hopes that hotels will be available -- during the Rita scare, many hotels were already filled with people who had fled Hurricane Katrina, she said.

[magellan]

12. What I don't understand is the lack of compassion, regardless of their choices

My father was 76 when Jeanne came ashore right over his house in '04. He and my mom tried to drive north to us but got stuck in traffic and turned around. They phoned me from their home. I was very angry with them for their decision, and extremely worried after their cellphone cut out. It was two days before I knew they had made it through okay.

Is it so impossible to put yourself in the shoes of someone like me; to imagine your own loved ones in such a situation and how you would never, ever want them to pay the ultimate price or be further victimized by the government and callous strangers for their bad choice?

[WhiteTara]

10. this is amazing

http://static.guim.co.uk/Guardian/world/gallery/2008/sep/15/usa/[e-mail]

they look like toys!

[Selatius]

13. Is it possible that most if not all of the 400 died and that most of the bodies were swept away?

Entire houses were swept away. Is it conceivable that the storm surge would do the same with human bodies?

[readmoreoften]

14. If so it would explain alot. But...

Unfortunately I think that would mean many may be coming home soon.

[malaise]

17. What's more there are more than a few alligators in

the area.