Hurricane Ike Watch! Currently forecast to hit Texas EARLY Saturday a.m. as a Cat. 4!

[Up2Late]

Landfall is still about 48 hours away as of this post, but it's time to get ready now if you are anywhere between Corpus Chisti and Galveston (or on any of those barrier Islands) get ready to leave, you know the traffic better than I, but taking a direct hit from Ike could really suck, to put it mildly.

NOTE: These graphic self-refresh when you reload the page

<http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/200809... >

Current Wind Field Model


Current Position and Track

<http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com />

[fed_up_mother]

1. Crap!

[Manifestor_of_Light]

2. Hi guys and gals. Who else is in Houston and surroundings?

Yo!!!!

[Up2Late]

4. When was the last time Houston/Galveston took a direct hit from a Cat. 4?

Has one ever made a direct hit on Galveston Bay? Just guessing, but I bet that would F-up your week.

[lastliberalintexas]

3. I think Corpus is ok now, though still should of course remain wary

But the 10 pm update from the NHC shows another shift to the north/east, much like what Rita did in 2005. It's looking more and more like another SE Texas storm rather than the central coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/2113...

[Up2Late]

6. It hard to tell at this point, but since they are predicting a very sharp turn to the North...

...once it gets a little inland, (just a guess, haven't checked yet) that probably means strong upper level winds/Jet-stream on Friday/Saturday. So if it's forward motion slows it might head straight for Houston.

[Imalittleteapot]

5. Friend in Galveston shopping for storm supplies tonight.

I asked him to leave tomorrow to avoid traffic. I'm not sure he will.

[lastliberalintexas]

7. The problem is that it's probably too late to avoid traffic

I suspect that is the real reason so few mandatory evac orders have been issued. Matagorda, Galveston, Houston over to SE Texas encompasses more than 8 million people. I suspect that we would have had to start evacuating on Monday in order to get out in a timely manner rather than the nightmarish evac from Rita. It's just not really possible to evacuate that many people if you wait until the forecasters have any degree of certainty as to its path.

[Up2Late]

11. That does suck, they really don't have any major roads out of that Central coast area, huh?

Do they at least have clear "Evacuation Route" signs posted in that area like in they have in Florida?

[TahitiNut]

8. That sucker is only going 7 mph ... it's gonna suck up LOTS of energy.

[Up2Late]

13. Looks like it just slowed even further, change to the forecast, or server glitch?

Edit: Sorry, looks like they are having server trouble, it's still moving, but maybe not as strong.

[lonestarnot]

15. Holy crap! Go people go!

[LisaL]

17. Go where?

There is no mandatory evacuations in Houston. Not even voluntary evacuations as of now.
And if millions of people try to leave, they will be stuck in traffic, which is worse than sitting in your home hoping for the best.

[Up2Late]

20. Is your Governor on vacation or something? They really should be mobilizing something by now.

Maybe they are counting on it hitting on the weekend, so they don't have to "disrupt business?"

[LisaL]

21. It's gonna hit early Saturday or very late Friday.

So yea, over the weekend.

[texanwitch]

42. We have Governor Goodhair, Rick Perry.

Some people do need to get out, some don't.

It depends where you live.

There are a lot of low lying areas that flood, they need to get out.

Other places are higher.

I hope everyone gets to a safe place and not stuck in their cars.

Ike is going to hit a lot of states from what I have been seeing.

After Ike leaves us the rest of y'all be careful.

My old house was built for Cat. 5, people long ago were smart.

I bought this house because of this.

I just hope all the new townhouses are stronger then they look, many of them have lots of windows.


Many are 3 and 4 stories tall.


I am hoping the glass is the impact type.


Good luck to everybody where ever you are.

[Catherine Vincent]

23. Speaking of traffic...

[Phoonzang]

9. Looks like they're not evacuating Houston.

It's really too late now. If people were going to try and leave now it would make the Rita debacle look like child's play. I was born and raised there and my parents are still there, so I'm pretty worried. I knew the thing would hit Houston the minute I saw it form in the Atlantic. I don't know how I knew....

[Up2Late]

14. They just made a Major chance to the forecast! You all might have just caught a break...

...or it could be a server glitch? Looks like Houston may be in trouble now.

[Catherine Vincent]

22. ...

[Up2Late]

25. Is that picture from today or Rita 2005?

Just askin'

[Catherine Vincent]

30. Rita 2005 nt

[HeeBGBz]

10. If it follows this path Galveston and Houston would be in the right front quadrant

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[Up2Late]

12. That graphic gives me the creeps, the way they have it spinning like that...

...you can almost hear it, watching that.

[TahitiNut]

16. That's become my favorite hurricane site ...excellent graphics and good info.

I like how they show the wind footprints at projected locations along the forecast track. It gives a VERY good idea who's gonna bear the brunt of the storm.

Take a look at the footprint for Friday at 8pm. Bad news.

[txwhitedove]

18. Houston here. We're 40-miles from coast so will not evacuate.

School is currently still scheduled for Friday, but all after school activities cancelled for Friday and Saturday.
*Mandatory evacuations on west end of Galveston
*Mandatory evacuations in Brazoria County
*No evacuations for Harris County

I'm more worried about this from KTRK TV Political Blog:
"Governor Sarah Palin is coming to Houston for a one time only before the Nov. 4 election for a reception and dinner. The event will be at the home of Mica and Bob Mosbacher on Friday, October 3 at 5PM. This is a fundraiser and the levels of participation are as follows:
$1,000 for the General Reception
$2,300 for the VIP Reception
$5,000 for the photo reception
$28,500 for the dinner for two plus the VIP reception - limited to 100 guests
This is the only chance before the election to hear her speak and meet this exciting woman and hopefully raise enough funds for the McCain-Palin."

[merh]

19. holy shit

Do you get the photos with the VIP dinner? man, these folks are crazy

[txwhitedove]

26. Anyone who pays $28,500 to eat dinner with Sarah Palin, is crazy

...., and must expect something for their money besides dinner and pictures. People with money and influence,
not like us regular working families who just want to elect a President who cares.

I need to stock up on groceries tomorrow. We don't flood here, but wind damage and electrical outage will be the big concern.

[merh]

29. Please do take care - folks here bought the generators

and small A/C units - if I lost electricity I'm not worried about the heat, I can deal with that - it's the food loss and no puter that would get me

Stock up and hunker down. Got you all in my prayers.

[RL3AO]

24. It currently has the pressure of a category 4, but the winds of a category 2.

Really weird storm.

[Up2Late]

35. They keep saying that on The Weather Channel...

...but they usually add that it's expected to strengthen to at least a Cat. 3 if not a Cat. 4.

[Strelnikov_]

27. Rita 10 pm Wed . . . Ike 10 pm Wed

[LisaL]

28. Twins.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

33. Except that Rita went east into Beaumont/Port Arthur.

[Up2Late]

31. That's weird. n/t

[Firespirit]

32. If Ike wobbles N/NW, a repeat of Rita *is* likely.

Galveston/Houston have dodged a lot of bullets since the 1900 storm, I'll grant. However, "it hasn't happened yet" is no reason to let down one's guard. Ike wants to be a big, bad, mean storm, and while Rita was forecast to weaken going into landfall, Ike is forecast to strengthen. I would sit out a 3 unless I was in line for storm surge, but not a 4.

[Up2Late]

34. Kick for a slight gain in forward speed (+2mph, now moving at 9 mph)

[NoPasaran]

36. Texas-Arkansas game has been postponed two weeks

Don't tell me we aren't taking this thing seriously!

[RB TexLa]

40. actually that's quite silly. Austin is going to have wind and heavy rain Saturday afternoon.

LSU decided not to move it's game Saturday even though there was still a chance of it hitting Louisiana when the decision was made. What now we don't play football in the rain?

[NoPasaran]

46. I think the real intent was to keep people from travelling during the storm

And it did free up quite a few hotel rooms in Austin for folks who've decided to skedaddle from the coast.

[Trailrider1951]

37. Man, I am so glad that I do not live in Houston anymore!

Y'all come visit us here in Austin!

On edit: I was there for Alicia in 1983, a Cat 1, and it sucked big time! Electricity was out for 2 days at my place, and for 2 weeks elsewhere in the area. This was in August, so no A/C, no refrigeration, no fun at all!

[BadgerKid]

38. (LINK) NOAA Buoy data

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

[Up2Late]

43. Do you know if all those buoys are working?

One problem NOAA had in 2005 was that they had a LOT of buoys that were not operational (because of congressional budget cuts).

[ChickMagic]

39. UT Galveston Med School has evacuated

Stay safe people! Listen to the authorities and follow their directions.

[Up2Late]

41. Good to hear, it still looks like Galveston is going to get hammered.

Everyone near the coast in the Galveston area who can move inland should start moving now, this thing is tracking true.

[pitohui]

44. not a cat 4

obviously all plans should be rushed to completion as they say but i am skeptic on the subject of this storm being a cat 4

jeff master's last report says it will be cat 3 at landfall

no use borrowing more trouble than we already have and the more we over-hype the more we break public trust and the less people will listen next time and next year

stay safe all and try to make clear-headed decisions

certainly the folks in low-lying coastal areas need to get moving now

[Up2Late]

51. When I posted this over 24 hours ago, the 45 hour forecast was for a Cat.4 at landfall, obviously...

...the closer you get to landfall, the easier it is to make an accurate forecast. The current 21 hour forecast is for a direct hit on Galveston as a Cat. 2, which by no means is it something to sneeze at, but it is a much better outcome than what we were looking at 24 hours ago.

This has been another very odd storm. It had the central pressure usually only seen in Cat 4 storms, but the odd thing about this storm is how far the Tropical Storm force winds are extending from the center, which is what most of the weather forecasters are saying is the reason it's not stronger at the eye.

It's just another data set to add to next years models, which helps build better models for next year.

[cwydro]

45. Prepare for the worst, but it may only hit as a Cat 2

according to the Weather Channel.

[Baclava]

47. Houston is a mote in Ike's Eye

[Bryn]

48. I am in Hot Springs, Arkansas

It looks like it will come here. I got away from South Florida because of hurricanes. Duh! We got renamants from Hurricane Gustav here and lost power for 3 days. Gustav was weak but it still caused a mess. How strong will Ike be here?

[Up2Late]

53. Looks like you may have lucked out with this one, you're in the Tropical Depression winds zone...

...it's predicted to fizzle out up about where you are. I'm just hoping for more rain here in Georgia, that last storm only added about 2 1/2 feet to Lake Lanier, it's still about 15 feet below normal.

[uppityperson]

49. Don't forget your axe, if you stay. Good to be able to chop out of roof.

[lastliberalintexas]

50. The people of Corpus must be living right

I am absolutley amazed that they have not been hit in the very active last several years!


Ike sure is a freak.

[Up2Late]

52. You got that right.

I'm just amazed at how far the Tropical Storm force winds are extending from the eye! Got to be close to 300 miles now. The Weather Channel is saying that that feature could be why the center is so much weaker than you would expect it to be.

Odd fact: Did you know that the Georgia coast had ZERO land falling hurricanes in the 20th Century!?

And another factor they are investigating now, in regard to these very active seasons is the amount of dust coming off of Africa. The investigators are saying that if they see a lot of dust, the season fizzles out, but if the air is clear, you get more of these monster storms.

[Up2Late]

54. Ike Landfall upgraded again to a Cat 3, Good luck Galveston...

...I hope everyone is out of town by now.

[Up2Late]

55. Parts of Galveston Island already flooding! Storm surge predicted at 20+ feet!

If you are anywhere close to this area and do not have a house with an elevated living area and storm shudders, turn OFF your computer and get out now!

[codjh9]

56. That's not what they just said on the Weather Channel. "High 2" or "Low 3".

[Up2Late]

57. Look at the date and time of the OP, that was the forecast about 30 hours ago....

...and remember, Katrina eventually made landfall on the Alabama coast as a Cat. 3 and as we know, that did a LOT of damage.

This one is mainly going to be a Massive Flooding event, but the wind forecasts have varies quite a bit over the last 2 days, so stay tuned.

[codjh9]

58. What's OP? Regardless, I just heard this like 20 minutes ago.

[Hugabear]

59. Original Post

You're going to see 'OP' a lot on DU. It just means the original post in the thread, the one that started it all.

And welcome!

[codjh9]

60. Thanks. I'm just an acronym-hater, and it irritates me how often they're used

on here... yes, I'm over 30. :^) (But regardless, many of them are NOT intuitive - hence my anger/frustration at their rampant use).

[Up2Late]

61. Kick

[Up2Late]

62. Cat. 2 Winds beginning to make landfall

Major Flooding already been going on for several hours now.