Yup. The Poll Numbers Worry Me Too. Shouldn't Be This Close. Our Strategy Sucks.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

Now granted, you and I both know that this should for all intents and purposes be a landslide Dem victory; if the voters amongst us actually cared enough to learn facts, issues and cut through the bullshit. But the sad reality is that they ain't even close to caring enough. Obama/Biden should have an easy 15 point gap but they don't. Instead, some polls now show Johnny boy ahead.

That bothers me a whole hell of a lot. Why? Because it gives legitimate reason to believe that it's going to remain close, and we'll all be sitting here biting our nails for hours into the wee hours of the morning on election night, hoping that we pull out a victory. We've done that before. The results ain't been so good. I can see it happening again. We have to stop it from happening again. We MUST stop it.

So what about strategy? It sucks I said? Yeah, it probably does in ways, and I'll get to that more in a second. But first, I want to make it very clear the voters we should be targeting. We should be targeting the independent minded voters; and there are a whole heck of a lot of them these days. See, the hardcore republicans are gonna swallow down Palin easily, and will rush out to vote for their side as always. We ain't changin their minds. The firm Democrats are overwhelmingly going to vote for Obama, and he should have no problem keeping them on his side. The bitter 'we want Hillary' dems or the out of their mind green party-like my way or no way zealots that say they won't vote for Obama are gonna stay home or vote McCain anyway, and they deserve little of our attention. Some of them might end up voting Dem hopefully, but they'll do so because when push came to shove they realized how stupid and childish they're being and know the right thing to do is vote for the Dem. But they'll arrive at that on their own.

So those groups are pretty much taken care of. But this year, more than any election year I can remember, there are more independent minded voters than ever before. We HAVE to win them over. Don't forget: The votes of independents count TWICE as much as a Dem or Repub voter typically. Yes, they get 2 votes to your one. Why? Because you are either going to vote Dem, Green or not vote at all. That's a potential net gain of one vote for Obama. But an independent will either vote for the Dem or repub, they just don't know which yet. Because whichever side they end up choosing will have a net gain of TWO votes, their votes count twice as much. If you don't know what I mean, I'll explain. Obama is up 80 votes to McCain's 70. You are definitely either voting for Obama or not at all (you're a hardcore dem after all, right?). So the best outcome would be Obama now having 81 to McCain's 70. An eleven point lead from a ten. An indy goes in and will either vote for Obama or McCain. If Obama, then it's 81 to 70 again, an 11 point lead. If they choose McCain, it's now 80 to 71, or only a 9 point lead. That's a difference of 2 votes in the spread merely by choosing one over the other. Their votes count double.

Now that I've got that out of the way, what should our strategy be? It should be Keep It Simple. We are spending way too much time dissecting Palin, dissecting McCain. Way too much time preaching the issues. Way too much time trying to convince people who really don't care too much about the nuances and details of why Obama etc is better. But most independents these days don't want details. Hell, they just want whatever cookie cutter type surface talking point they can easily hear or read. These are our everyday coworkers, neighbors, friends and acquaintances. They aren't a tenth as politically informed as we are and we have to stop trying to get them to be. We need to just keep it simple.

How do we do that? Well, I think it's easy. Lowest common denominator. Least learning involved. Least effort to personally comprehend the gravity of on their part. Fuck the specific issues, fuck the details, fuck making it about Obama vs McCain, Biden vs Palin, stance on issues vs stance on issues. Most of them ain't listenin to you long enough to get your point across. Fuck all that. All WE should be focusing on in conversation with them, what WE should be spreading, what WE should be hammering home over and over, is simply DEMOCRAT vs REPUBLICAN. That's it. Keep it simple.

They've all had 8 years of this republican shit. They see where it's gotten them. They know how fucked up everything is. They know it's time for change. The only reason they're not flooding to Obama is because they so easily forget, and instead focus on the popular newspaper talking point of the day and get so easily distracted by whatever the media is shovin down their throats. That's why we need to pound it back into them repeatedly. Democrat vs republican. They don't need to think about it. They don't need to learn a thing. They've all suffered these 8 years. They'll know within themselves immediately what that comparison means. Fresh start. New blood. Turn our direction around.

We need to keep asking people: "Did you regret the last time you voted for a Democrat? Do you regret the last time you voted for a republican? It's time for a political shift."

We need to makes this not about individual politics, but about party power change. We need to get them to see that the republicans have had the reigns and we're all fucked right now cause of it. Time for a new driver. Time to give the Democrats a chance again. That's it. That's as complicated as your discussion needs to be. Keep the discussion along those lines, and I bet you'll see the glimmer of recognition in the eyes of the person you're talking to. They'll get it. They won't feel the need to be defensive about a particular issue Obama has that they don't like but do like in McCain. They won't be bogged down in details. They'll just get it.

So sorry for the long as ramble, but we need to get our asses movin. Each of us do. Each of us need to help win as many as these 2 for 1 voters over as possible. Time is running short.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

1. Relax

Polls, at this stage, are worthless. Don't let yourself get sucked into the "cable news network" mentality, which calls for blowing up everything just to have something to talk about.

Ignore them. Nothing matters until it's over.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

7. You Didn't Read A Thing, Did You.

The last thing I've done is get sucked into anything, and it was a quite ignorant thing to say to claim I have.

The polls are way too close and will likely remain 'too close' throughout. You best start acknowledging that now and doing what you can to change it, lest you be guilty of complacency which will be components of your tears that you'll cry come the morning after the election.

Ignore the numbers at your peril.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

17. Yeah, I read it

And I was just trying to offer you some comfort. Clearly, I failed, and I shall carry the burden of that failure for the rest of my days, lamenting constantly that I was unable to make myself understood, that I reached out to someone who chose not to read what I wrote, and I shall suffer, oh, how I shall suffer for this terrible, terrible lapse that I have committed, a fall from grace that no one, no man, no woman, not even any of God's lowliest creatures can endure without eternal suffering

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

21. Your Offer Of Comfort Was Nothing More Than Complacency And Laziness.

Trying to convince people to be 'comfortable' with where the race is at does nothing more than help our opposition. Try and wake up to that. Not ONE of us should be comforted right now nor comfortable. We should all be taking this race seriously and doing what we can to ensure we win. An easy way to help is by doing what I stated in the OP. An easy way to contribute to our loss is to do nothing at all other than be lazy typing crap on a keyboard, hoping everything will just work out on it's own.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

27. Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

You DO have serious issues.

If I were a praying Tangerine LaBamba, I would pray for you.

What's really shocking is how angry you are. And we're ostensibly on the same side.

Work them issues, honey.

<click>

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

28. There's Been No Anger. You Continue To Look Silly In Your Childish Responses.

And for the record; I will never be on the same side as ignorance, naivety and complacency.

Wake up and start helping.

[StrongBad]

2. I'm not going to flip my shit until the convention bump noise settles down and we get state numbers

It could very well be that the tightening nationally comes from enthusiasm in red states that were lukewarm for McCain.

Additionally, I fully expect the race to revert to a statistical tie nationally next week after the GOP convention hysteria dies down.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

9. Wait: You Read The OP And Can Sit There Confident That A Statistical Tie Is Good Enough?

Not even close.

[StrongBad]

22. The numbers are malleable. Obama was at 50% last week.

Way too early to think the post-convention bump is permanent. Revisit your OP in a week.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

25. Do You Not Think Obama Got A Bump As Well?

This is really quite simple: Bump or no bump, conventions or no conventions, polls or no polls; the race is too close. Do your part to help. Follow the advice in the OP.

[DailyGrind51]

42. It can't be close enough to steal!

If Kerry had been significantly ahead of Bush in 2004, Rove could not have stolen the election. A 50/50 tie is a win for Republicans in November because of the "Rove factor".

[Lerkfish]

3. consider the source

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

16. Naivety.

The source is irrelevant. I'm more than intelligent enough to deduce from the polls and source of those polls what I need to. What is important, regardless of the specific numbers or source of those numbers, is that the election is way too close and based on past electoral experience will remain that way. That's not good enough.

We need to act now and we need to act right. We need to remind indies as much and often as possible about where the republicans have gotten us, and that it's time for a change of the guard and putting a Dem back in charge. That's all we need to do. We need to keep pounding the Dem vs Repub time to try something new meme into them. They'll get it. They'll know. It really is that simple.

Just do it. Do it or just sit back, hope the polls are wrong, do nothing and wait, and hope that eventually the polls give Obama a huge gain and he wins handily on Election day. I'm choosing the former, as opposed to being a naive fool that hopes everything will work its way out on its own, followed by mass regret on election day.

Your smarter than this Lerkfish. Get the meme out.

[Lerkfish]

31. ah yeah, I keep forgetting, you're the only intelligent person in the room

the rest of us are idiots, basking in your singular brilliance.

:rolleyes:

[Name removed]

33. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

37. You Said That. I Didn't.

What I did is simply lay out a logical and strategical meme that we should all be following in the coming weeks out of desire to win the most important election of my lifetime.

I do notice though that instead of responding to the merits of the argument you instead defaulted to meaningless and empty sarcasm. That's counter productive and won't in any way assist with something we should ALL care about, which is winning the election. The advice in the OP is sound and if you consider it rather than using knee jerk sarcasm; maybe you'd find that you agree.

[Lerkfish]

40. false

you misinterpreted my meaning.

I'll leave it at that.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

43. And You Came Into This Thread Having Yet Anything To Offer To It.

So you're saying 'I'll leave it at that' does nothing more than have you leave the thread the way you entered it: Contributing nothing.

[David Zephyr]

4. I like the urgency in your OP. There are too many here feeling we are secure. We are not.

Thanks.

[Virginia Dare]

5. 50 state strategy, what does the electoral college look like?

fwiw Dems are kicking ass in registering new voters, we just have to get these people out to the polls. DUers can help by volunteering to make calls and knock on doors.

[AndyTiedye]

41. The EC Looks A Lot Like 2004

Of course, we registered thousands of new voters in 2004, also.

[Virginia Dare]

45. I don't know I think there are more swing states in play this year..

Virginia, for instance. Even Arizona is not in the bag for McCain yet. Last I saw Obama was up by 30 in the ec is that gone now too?

[AndyTiedye]

46. Looked Like He Might Still Be Up By 8, Maybe

Ohio has gone solid red in the latest, nobody knows why.
Even that includes some shaky ones.

[emilyg]

6. Thanks.

[alfredo]

8. Here's several factors you need to consider. First, ground game.

Being a community organizer has helped him build a ground game that will kick ass this Nov. Polling. Most polls only call land lines. How many in Obama's demographics have a land line. If you look at the demographics of cell phone only voters, they fit nicely within Obamas base. Electoral map. Again, Obama is doing well here. Independents have shown they will swing to Obama.

All we need now is for you to volunteer and make Obama's win huge. If you are involved you will soon find your fears and doubts disappear.

Volunteers eat a lot of free pizza.

alfredo, Brandywine precinct officer.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

11. I Manned The Phone Lines And Drove People To The Polls Last Time, And I'll Do The Same Again.

But you, me, everyone else, will have many opportunities to talk to everyday indies over the next weeks. Limit your conversation to that which I spoke of. It's what we need to do.

[alfredo]

15. I'm a firm believer in never underestimating my opponent. I'm ready

to hit the streets for Obama and Bruce Lunsford in his campaign to unseat Mitch McConnell. http://www.bruce2008.com/

[orleans]

39. i think it was thom hartman today who said

we have to pick three reasons to vote for obama and 3 reasons to NOT vote mccain and stick with those

i don't know--i really think (in my paranoid mind) that we are being totally set up again for another election theft (mcbush & obama "close"??? how the hell can that be?)

i really think we need the return of the exit polls -- so at least we have a basis for losing our fucking minds and taking to the streets when things go awry in november

[Fla Dem]

10. The problem is we do not have the megaphone the Rethugs have.

When they think they have an issue, real or imagined, let's say Rev Wright,or Michell's "1st time I'm really proud to of America", etc, it is repeated and repeated on RW talk radio and FAUX. Eventually, because of the noise they make, the talking points are picked up by the MSM. Unfortunately, we have no such means to continually keep our message out there. Yes the bloggers are blogging, and we keep DU busy and there are a handful of liberal talk radio shows on satellite. But for the most part we are preaching to the choir. The everyday American is driving around listening to their car radio, or at work/home with a radio. They're not sitting in front of a computer reading liberal political blogs or forums. We cannot get to the masses the way the Rethugs can, to get our message across, to point out the lies and distortions of the RW and to refute all and any accusations made. Where I live there are 3 radio stations available for RW talk. There is no access to opposing views except on the internet. Until RW talk radio has some serious competiion from the Left, we will always be fighting a uphill battle.

We should be winning this race with our eyes closed. Day after day the bad news about the economy just keeps getting worse. And yet while on my lunch break today, the jerk who is sitting in for Limpballs says (paraphrased)"the whole problem with Freddie Mac and Fannnie Mae can be laid at the feet of the Democratic party. Because this is the party that does not believe in privatization. Freddie and Fannie are quasi governmental agencies and we all know the government cannot run anything." He never once mentioned the Phil Gramm/Republican bill passed in 1992 that deregulated the banking industry, removing many of the safe guards that were put in place after the great depression. Which ultimately led to predatory borrowing practices and unregulated reporting which has led directly to the foreclosure crisis. But will that ever get out to the main stream American? No.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

12. Don't Care About What The Problem Is Right Now.

You're right in what you say, and then some, but that's irrelevant right now. You ain't gettin any serious left competition to right wing talk radio this election cycle. You will, however, be talking to many every day indies in the next week. Take my advice above and limit your conversation to that which I stated. Do it as often as you can.

[JVS]

13. I agree LCD is what to do, and as the grass roots let's spread some LCD stuff about McCain...

betraying his country as a POW

[KathieG]

14. The polls are bullshit

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

20. Naivety.

Keep your head in the sand if you must. The race is way too tight and it's close whether you want it to be or not. This isn't about one poll. It's about the state of the race as it exists. You want to remain in denial I can't change that. But you ain't helpin us win by doing so, and winning is ALL that matters right now. It's of the utmost importance. Take my advice above and spread the meme. It's what we all need to be doing right now.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

18. My goodness

You DO have some issues, don't you? And they aren't connected with polls, I suspect.

Well, good luck. I must get back to My Eternal Damnation for not having agreed to participate in your hysteria.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

24. There's Nothing Hysterical Contained In This Thread. Only Things Every One Of Us Should Care About.

Do you not agree as to the importance of this election? Your sarcasm screams out that you don't.

There's no hysterics here nor sky is falling scenarios. Merely good sound advice on how we should go about talking to undecideds to help them lean our way. Is that worthy of mockery? Only to those who are either ignorant childish nitwits or those who don't want the Dems to win anyway.

Get a grip and a clue sometime.

[flashsmith]

19. The fix is in

The Republicans are going to steal the election. Critical to this is to have the spread within a few percent so they can claim the exit polls are inaccurate again. When Obama talked about the windfall profit tax, the corporations made up their mind who they wanted to win. The polling corporations are now just making stuff up. I wouldn't trust any poll not managed by the Democratic party.

[madokie]

23. I believe that polls can reflect what is to come

I also know they could, can and are fixed sometimes. This is one of the times that they are. The mcWants'it people are banking on that there are enough bigoted assholes to carry them through to victory. Maybe there is but I don't think there is enough of them to pull it off. My biggest worry is the thievery, the rest we can deal with.

[ljm2002]

26. At last, something we agree on! :-)

I totally agree that where we always fall down is in making things overly complicated. And I think your point of Democrats vs. Republicans is an excellent one.

We know that the Republican brand is damaged. Hell, they didn't even have their own President there in person at their own Convention. And their VP was out of the friggin' country, just to avoid doing further damage.

We need to be hammering on a few things:

- 6 YEARS of TOTAL REPUBLICAN RULE
- 2 YEARS of REPUBLICAN OBSTRUCTIONISM and PRESIDENTIAL VETOES
- TIME FOR A CHANGE
- McCAIN is a FLIP-FLOPPER, and ALL of his flip-flops have been TOWARDS BUSH

Well, that's a start. Keep it simple, and hammer it home -- you are so right!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

29. Yup. You Get It. Cheers!

:toast:

[Ah Xoc Kin]

30. hit mccain HARDER!

What I hear from Repubs is, once again, Dems appear weak on
the issue of defense. The Repub delegates interviewed ALL said
the same thing about why they support McCain. They feel unsafe
about Obama and how hard line he'll be with "bad guys."

The weakness thing comes across when Obama/Biden say,
"oh we're not going to say mean things about Palin and
taking about family is just WRONG!!"

*sigh*

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

32. You are right on

Unfortunately, a lot of people here are already popping the corks on the champagne, and won't listen. They think the polls are bullshit, the pundits are skewing it all, trying to get ratings......

No one has learned a lesson from '00 and '04. "This guy we've got now is different" still doesn't win you EV's.

[The Straight Story]

34. Good rant.

But I am still gonna post about things that piss me off and make em look bad all the same :)

[alcibiades_mystery]

35. Thanks! I'm getting on the phone with Axelrod RIGHT NOW to let him know!

Expect a full-scale transformation based on your advice to hit the campaign tomorrow!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

36. Not Talking About The Campaign. I'm Talking About Us.

Sad that your petty interpersonal need for sarcasm outweighs the importance of the election though.

[alcibiades_mystery]

38. And you would have us do what about campaign strategy?

:shrug:

[Two Americas]

44. pretty darn good

Thanks for that OMC. Solid reasoning and well expressed.