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http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6590007927683352531&ei=neq6SMXpG4mOqQKXya3wDA&q=New+York+City+hurricane&vt=lf&hl=enhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/060519_hurricanes.htmlHurricane Could Devastate New York, U.S. Economy, Experts WarnWillie Drye for National Geographic News May 19, 2006 Forecasters are warning that a hurricane making landfall at or near New York City could cause catastrophic damage in the U.S.'s largest urban center. While a storm is unlikely to make direct landfall on Manhattan, a nearby storm would cause extensive flooding and heavy storm surges, experts say. A minor hurricane could also cause flooding throughout Lower Manhattan, depending on how the storm approached and whether it arrived at high or low tide. Making matters worse, many New York residents may not realize how severely they could be affected by a hurricane. Scott Mandia, a professor of physical sciences at Suffolk County Community College in Selden, says Long Island's 4 million residents could be surprised by the aftermath of a storm. "What I think they don't understand is how many days and weeks after a hurricane that their lives will be completely changed," Mandia said. "People who live away from the water think a hurricane will mean one day away from work, then back to normal." "There will be an economic shutdown for a few weeks, if not a month," he said. "The economic standstill will be the biggest surprise for people." Gregory Caronia, director of emergency preparedness for Nassau County on Long Island, said he tells Nassau County residents to be prepared to survive for at least four or five days on their own after a hurricane. "We have so many people here and limited resources," Caronia said. "Response within hours is not feasible. Within eight hours after a hurricane, we might be able to get some sort of reconnaissance . Beyond that, it might be a day or two or three before we can get help to them."
Forecasters also warn that a hurricane striking New York City could cause major problems well beyond the city itself.
New Orleans, one of the nation's most important ports, was devastated last August by Hurricane Katrina. The destruction contributed to a sharp increase in oil prices, and the city is still struggling to recover.
New York, a worldwide financial center, has an even larger presence in national and international commerce.
Should a hurricane close the port of New York and the New York Stock Exchange for a week or more, the damage to the nation's economy would be more severe than that caused by Katrina, Coch said.
And although New York isn't typically associated with hurricanes, the city has taken hits in the past and is vulnerable to storm surge.
A 1990 study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said the three U.S. cities most vulnerable to hurricanes are New Orleans, Miami, and New York.
New York's Hurricane History
The last time a hurricane made landfall in New York was 1985, when Hurricane Gloria's eye scraped the New Jersey coast before coming ashore on Long Island, just east of Manhattan. (See map of New York.)
But by the time the storm arrived, its strongest winds had diminished to 100 miles an hour (161 kilometers an hour) or less.
Caronia, the emergency management director, is worried that the people who went through Hurricane Gloria think they've seen the worst that a storm can do.
"My honest opinion, Gloria was a minimal hurricane," Caronia said.
"People gauge their experience with hurricanes by what they're exposed to. That's what I'm afraid of here."
The worst hurricane on record to strike New York smashed into Long Island in September 1938 with sustained winds exceeding 120 miles an hour (193 kilometers an hour).
That storm killed 600 people and caused substantial damage from New Jersey to New England.
But the eye of that storm missed Manhattan, minimizing the damage to the city's nerve center.
Hurricanes' Dangerous Route
Most hurricanes that reach New York travel parallel to the U.S.'s Atlantic coastline, making a direct hit on Manhattan less likely.
The coastline turns sharply eastward just north of the city, however, making a direct hit on Long Island much more likely.
"New York City is tucked in, away from the coast," said meteorologist Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather.
"A devastating major hurricane in New York City would have to be worse somewhere else, worse on Long Island or New Jersey."
But storms less powerful than the 1938 hurricane have done major damage to the city.
In 1821, the eye of a hurricane pushed a 13-foot (4-meter) storm surge into New York Harbor that put Lower Manhattan underwater.
The flooding would have been much worse had the eye not arrived at low tide.
North Carolina writer Willie Drye is the author of Storm of the Century: The Labor Day hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic.
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_future.html
According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project:
24% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2008. Normal value is 16%.
14% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in 2008. Normal value is 9%.
7% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in 2008. Normal value is 4%.
99% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in the next 50 years.
73% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.
26% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50 years.
A major obstacle to overcome is public complacency. Approximately 78.5% of current New York State coastal residents have never experienced a major hurricane (Hughes). One must remember that in 1938, Long Island was mostly undeveloped. The next time a major hurricane hits, it will be impacting a highly-urbanized region. The last two hurricanes were mild in comparison to the Great Hurricane of 1938. August 19, 1991, Hurricane Bob (category 2) brushed the eastern tip of Long Island and moved into southeastern New England. Because most of Long Island was on the western side of the storm, winds were category 1 strength and the storm surge was minimal.
September 27, 1985, Hurricane Gloria (category 2*) moved across the center of Long Island causing much tree damage and beach erosion. In informal surveys, most people believe that this was a "major hurricane" in the category 3 class when in fact it was a moderate category 2 event. Therefore, there is a misguided sense that Long Island can withstand "strong" hurricanes with only minor inconveniences because few have ever experienced a major hurricane.
*Hurricane category is typically assigned based on the maximum sustained wind speed. Gloria hit Long Island with a maximum sustained wind speed of 85 mph which meant it was officially assigned to category 1. However, due to the rapid forward speed of the storm, winds to the east of the eye were 110+ mph which would place Gloria as a category 2/3 storm. Therefore, Hurricane Gloria is now officially considered a category 2 storm. (Thank you to Kathleen Nolan for notifying me of this upgrade in category after the fact.)
Christopher Landsea, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Research Division, and Roger A. Pielke, a social scientist at NCAR, looked at the most destructive U.S. hurricanes on record and predicted the cost if these storms were to hit today. The diagram to the right shows quite clearly that the northeast U.S., especially the Long Island and New York City regions, would suffer greatly. Of the 15 "worst" storms, Long Island would be affected by five of them and the 1938 hurricane today would be considered the 6th costliest of all time. In 1998 dollars, the damage would be nearly $18 billion. Of all the natural disasters in the United States, hurricanes account for about two-thirds of the insured property losses (USGS, 1998).
Coastal New York state is second only behind Florida for the amount of insured coastal property (Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction (IIPLR) and Insurance Research Council, 1995) so future hurricanes may have severe economic impact.
Click the graph to the left for larger view.
Experts now believe that after Miami and New Orleans, New York City is considered the third most dangerous major city for the next hurricane disaster. According to a 1990 study by the US Army Corps of Engineers, the city has some unique and potentially lethal features. New York's major bridges such as the Verrazano Narrows and the George Washington are so high that they would experience hurricane force winds well before those winds were felt at sea-level locations. Therefore, these escape routes would have to be closed well before ground-level bridges (Time, 1998). The two ferry services across the Long Island Sound would also be shut down 6-12 hours before the storm surge invaded the waters around Long Island, further decreasing the potential for evacuation.
A storm surge prediction program used by forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted that in a category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water and sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. The report did not estimate casualties, but did state that storms "that would present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in heavy loss of life" in the New York City area (Time, 1998).
Some of the key observations from the storm surge maps for Nassau and Suffolk Counties:
Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of the Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.
Montauk Highway (RT. 27A) is completely covered by flood waters during a Category 3 hurricane. Therefore, this road would be considered impassable during the storm.
The highest storm surges (Category 4) would occur in the following regions:
Amityville Harbor - 29 feet
Atlantic Beach & Long Beach areas - 24 to 28 feet
South Oyster Bay, Middle Bay, & East Bay areas - 24 to 28 feet
Montauk Point is completely cut off from rest of south fork during a category 1 storm.
Much of the north and south forks are entirely under water during a category 3 hurricane.
Given public complacency, the amount of people needed to evacuate, the few evacuation routes off Long Island, and the considerable area affected by storm surge, more lead-time is needed for a proper evacuation than in other parts of the country. However, east coast hurricanes are normally caught up in the very fast winds aloft, called the jet stream, so they can move up the coast at great speeds - much faster than hurricanes that impact the southern U.S. In fact, the 1938 Hurricane moved at forward speeds in excess of 60 mph. To this day the Long Island Express holds the forward speed record for any Atlantic hurricane.
Surviving "Day One" of the hurricane is only part of the concern. Most people away from the coast believe that they are far enough inland to be safe from hurricanes. In one sense that is true for the immediate effects of the hurricane. However, most of these inland residents fail to realize that their daily lives will be severely impacted for weeks or months. Employees will not be able to get to work due to downed trees and widespread power outages may shut down the economy for quite a long time. According to the LIPA Forecasts Hurricane Outages & Recovery, Sept. 10, 2003, a direct hit by a Category 3 hurricane could cause some 750,000 to 1,000,000 power outages island-wide. And, it could take 15 to 30 days to restore service to all customers, or at least to those customers whose homes or businesses were not destroyed.
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