8/29 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA EV: 282,301,331,342 (ONE IS CORRECT) - x

[tiptoe]

8/29 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA EV: 282,301,331,342 (ONE IS CORRECT) - x

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: August 29

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

8/29/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 45.89 (51.02) 
 44.06 (48.98) 
 47.40 (52.09) 
 43.60 (47.91) 
51.92
48.08
52.80
47.20
331
207

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided-Voter Allocation 
5-Poll Mov Avg             2-Party          

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Rasmussen
Gallup
CNN
Hotline/FD
USA/Gallup

ABC/WP
FOX
CBS/NYT
NBC/WSJ
Bloomberg

Quinnipiac
Reuters/Zogby
Gallup
Pew
IBD/TIPP

Date
            
8/28
8/28
8/24
8/24
8/23

8/22
8/20
8/19
8/18
8/18

8/17
8/16
8/10
8/10
8/10

Size
            
3000LV
2727RV
909RV
800RV
765LV

1000RV
900RV
869RV
1005RV
1248RV

1547LV
1089LV
903RV
2414RV
925RV

MoE
            
1.79%
1.88%
3.25%
3.46%
3.54%

3.10%
3.27%
3.32%
3.09%
2.77%

2.49%
2.97%
3.26%
1.99%
3.22%

LV avg
RV avg
Total

Obama
            
49
49
47
44
48

49
42
45
45
45

47
41
45
46
43

46.25
45.40
45.67

McCain
            
45
41
47
40
45

43
39
42
42
43

42
46
38
43
38

44.50
40.80
42.27

Spread
            
4
8
0
4
3

6
3
3
3
2

5
(5)
7
3
5

1.75
4.60
3.40

 

Obama
            
47.4
47.4
46.0
45.6
45.8

45.2
44.8
44.6
44.6
44.8

44.4
44.0
45.0
45.6
46.6

McCain
            
43.6
43.2
42.8
41.8
42.2

41.8
41.6
43.0
42.2
42.4

41.4
40.8
39.8
40.6
40.8

|

Obama
            
52.1
52.3
51.8
52.2
52.0

52.0
51.9
50.9
51.4
51.4

51.7
51.9
53.1
52.9
53.3

Win Prob
               
98.9
99.2
86.1
89.1
87.1

89.2
86.7
70.5
81.0
83.5

91.5
89.3
96.7
99.8
97.8

 

Obama
            
52.80
53.04
52.72
53.16
53.00

53.00
52.96
52.04
52.52
52.48

52.92
53.12
54.12
53.88
54.16

McCain
            
47.20
46.96
47.28
46.84
47.00

47.00
47.04
47.96
47.48
47.52

47.08
46.88
45.88
46.12
45.84

Diff
         
5.6
6.1
5.4
6.3
6.0

6.0
5.9
4.1
5.0
5.0

5.8
6.2
8.2
7.8
8.3

Win Prob
               
99.9
99.9
95.0
96.3
95.1

97.1
96.2
88.5
94.5
96.0

98.9
98.0
99.3
100.0
99.4

 

Obama is getting an expected convention bounce in the national polls.

What is his projected Electoral Vote, assuming the election is held today?

Is it 282, based on the latest unadjusted state polls?
Is it 301, based on the projected state vote win probabilities using the latest polls (assuming a 50/50 split of undecided voters)?
Is it 331, based on the projected state vote win probabilities (assuming 60% of undecided voters (UVA) break to Obama)?
Is it 341, based on the projected state 2-party vote using the latest polls (assuming 60% UVA for Obama)?

...

Obama leads the aggregate State projection model by 51.9–48.1% and the National model by 52.8–47.2%. He has a bigger lead than the near “dead heat” claimed by pollsters, bloggers and the media. That’s because they want a close race and don’t adjust polls for undecided and newly registered voters.

• Of the latest 15 national polls, 11 are Registered Voter (RV) and 4 are LV. The RVs include newly registered young Democrats who are not included in the LV polls. Perhaps that’s why Obama leads by 4.6% in the RV polls but only 1.75% in the LVs. In 2004, Kerry did better in RVs than in LVs.
  
  
• The Election Model's base case scenario assumption is that Obama will capture 60% of the undecided vote. He’s considered to be the challenger, since McCain is running for Bush’s third term. Typically, challengers win 75–90% of the undecided vote. In 2004, final state and national Pre-Election Polls had the race nearly tied at 47, but Kerry had at least 70% of the undecided vote (Gallup allocated 88% to him).

But there’s another factor to consider — Election Fraud. ...

full update: 8/29 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA EV: 282,301,331,342 (ONE IS CORRECT) - x

[tiptoe]

1. kicking for Obama/Biden! nt

[W_HAMILTON]

2. Interesting stuff.

I certainly hope things turn out this way :)

[tiptoe]

3. yep. and better than relying on one pollster. nt

[tiptoe]

4. NOT ONE ELECTION WEBSITE, POLLSTER OR MEDIA PUNDIT EVER MENTIONS THE FRAUD FACTOR.

The Election Model accounts for the distinct probability that the election will be fraudulent and adjusts the vote shares accordingly. This analysis will be provided right up to the election. To show the effects of fraud, the summary table displays Obama’s electoral and popular vote assuming 3% of total votes cast are uncounted (Obama has 75%) and 4% of Obama’s votes are switched to McCain. After adjusting for these factors, Obama has 251 electoral votes and a 49.1% vote share. Of course, for higher switched vote and uncounted vote rates, he would lose by larger margins. Two graphs display the effects of a combination range of uncounted and switch vote scenarios on the EV and popular vote (see the links below).

[tiptoe]

5. Compare polls of RV (registered voters) vs LV (likely voters), esp Gallup nt