Weather Experts - how come Tropical Storm Fay strengethed

[malaise]

while passing through Florida. This storm isn't finished with Florida yet.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_5day.html#a_topad

How are Florida DUers faring?

[Captain Hilts]

1. I'm stumped, actually. nt

[ccharles000]

2. I wonder if we in NC will get any rain.

[malaise]

5. Not sure

The experts say Fay will be pushed back through Florida and may even end up in the Gulf.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

15. I hope so.

We are parched.

[NightWatcher]

3. because Nature cant be tamed

Sitting in JAX waiting for the next landfall. Hope it's only a Cat 1

[malaise]

7. Stay safe

Looks like you're getting as much rain as we did.

[annabanana]

4. One of the weather readers said that the hot swampland in the

middle of the peninsula is the reason.. It's as if the system was still over water (?)

[malaise]

6. Steve Lyons just said it was quite rare

and tended to happen with Tropical Storms.

[Ilsa]

13. That's what I figured. That area of FL is so humid and hot, it would

likely fuel the storm further. Still, it's some weird shit.

I live along the Texas coast. I doubt it could make its way here because of the fronts we'e been getting lately (and unusually) will keep pushing it off back eastwards.

[csziggy]

16. The Everglades - that is what Fay ended up over

It's not called the River of Grass for nothing - thousands of square miles of shallow water that were probably about 90 degrees this time of year. Plenty of energy for a storm to get bigger.

If Fay had gone in farther north, the land there is dryer and it probably would not have gotten that boost.

[whistle]

8. It appears to have crossed over the large fresh water Lake Okeechobee

...around mid-day which could have had the effect of warm up-drafts of air helping to reorganize tropical storm Faye which had pounded much of the large land masses in the Caribbean fragmenting the storm over the past two days. By early tomorrow it will go off shore into the Atlantic Gulf Stream where it will encounter more warm air. Anything is possible still. Here in Orlando near the airport we had rain pretty much all day with intervals of heavy pounding rain but just moderate winds.

Here is a link to Faye's path from when it originated. Again much of the time it had several globs of storm activity and never could form into a single massive storm center. Just as well thank God...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/223231.shtml?swath#contents

[Divine Discontent]

11. what whistle said!

I'm on the ocean and it's gusting over 40MPH and is pretty much over me now, it's died down some from earlier today. I think it will come right towards NC, but we'll see, they're saying it's expected to go right back at N FL.

[malaise]

19. Thanks n/t

[Baclava]

9. It's stalled now...

It's gonna reverse itself, come out into the gulf again and head right for me...I can feel it.

As for Fay's intensification after coming on-shore - - - since 80% of S.FL homes are used to grow weed, all that extra heat from the growlights in their closets has caused this freak of nature, I blame them.

[malaise]

20. LOL

:rofl:

[Catherine Vincent]

10. Destiny isn't the only thing that's a fickle bitch. nt

[Chipper Chat]

12. The rain she just keeps a-comin.

Fay is moving slower than McBush's thought-patterns. I'm still on the north side of the eye and the palm fronds are all horizontal and pointing due west. Lots of clear puddles (up north they are known as mud puddles) are everywhere as water is slow to sink into the sand (I'm 4 blocks from the Atlantic Ocean). My cat sits by the patio door watching the deluge and glancing at me as if I have the power to make it stop. Still have electricity tho!

[A HERETIC I AM]

14. Why do you suggest it has strengthened?

Here is the 11:00 PM NWS/NHC Advisory;

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/200241.shtml

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT FAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRENGTHEN WHEN
IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

It likely will strengthen when it gets back over the Atlantic but nothing I read all day suggested it got stronger as it has passed over the state.

[alfredo]

17. An eye was seen.

[SoCalDem]

23. The eye is now over the ocean.. fingers crossed that it does not linger out there

and makes a sudden northward turn..just skirting up the coast until it gets to Kennebunkport.. and then makes a HARD LEFT :)

[alfredo]

24. Fay has been unpredictable. a couple models has it reentering the Gulf

zeroing in on New Orleans.

[malaise]

21. It was 65mph at one stage and had an eye n/t

[NeedleCast]

18. The Best Guesses Right Now

Are that Florida was recently saturated by rain and that standing (and very warm) water on the ground, plus moister from Lake Okachobee (which I probably spelled wrong) were enough fuel for Fay to feed on.

Personally, I think that's crap, but honestly there are no better theories right now. As an armature meteorologist I can say that I have NEVER seen anything like this.

Jeff Master's blog on Weather Underground has the best explanation I've seen...which is pretty much that nothing like this has ever happened before.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1033&tstamp=200808

[malaise]

22. Thanks

Masters take on Fay has been very interesting. He called it the Joker before it was named.