Other than Guiliani (who won't win the nomination) the Repub candidates crash and burn head-to-head

[Czolgosz]

RUDY GIULIANI - His positives are 43% higher than his negatives (just wait as they plummet - he's peaked too early). If he could win the nomination (which he can't), he beats all comers:

Giuliani (49%) Biden (38%)
Giuliani (52%) Clinton (43%)
Giuliani (46%) Edwards (44%)
Giuliani (46%) Obama (40%)
Giuliani (52%) Richardson (35%)
Giuliani (56%) Vilsack (28%)

JOHN McCAIN - His positives are 19% higher than his negatives. He loses to Edwards, ties Obama, and beats the rest of the Democratic field:

McCain (49%) Biden (36%)
McCain (51%) Clark (33%)
McCain (45%) Clinton (44%)
McCain (44%) Edwards (45%)
McCain (44%) Obama (44%)
McCain (45%) Richardson (36%)

MITT ROMNEY - His positives are 4% higher than his negatives. He loses by 17% to Edwards, by 14% to Obama, and by 10% to Hillary:

Romney (41%) Clinton (51%)
Romney (34%) Edwards (52%)
Romney (36%) Obama (50%)

SAM BROWNBACK - His negatives are a whopping 19% higher than his positives (his negatives are fully twice as high as his positives). He loses by 5% to Hillary and by 15% to Obama.

NEWT GINGRICH - His negatives are 5% higher than his positives. He loses by 10% or more against Democratic nominees.

CHUCK HAGEL - His negatives are 3% higher than his positives. He loses by 8% to Hillary and by 16% to Obama.

MIKE HUCKABEE - His negatives are 7% higher than his positives. He loses by more than 15% against Democratic nominees.

DUNCAN HUNTER - His negatives are 6% higher than his positives.

Source: http://rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Favorables/RepublicanPresidentialCandidates.htm

[NYCGirl]

1. I wouldn't be so sure that he won't win the nomination. The GOP is desperate

for a "win" and I think they'll run over the Christian right faction in their rush to find one.

[Czolgosz]

2. Rove spent his career building fundamentalist- corporatist-neocon coalition. Rove's coalition of

one-issue-voters demands unity because their success at achieving tighter unity than we achieve is the key factor (along with a little help from election riggers) which allows them to succeed despite the fact that they hold minority views. Guiliani threatens that unity (Southern fundamentalists won't get on board). McCain threatens that unity (neither the fundamentalists nor the corporatist-neocons trust him and Rove thinks McCain is too old).

The corporatist-neocons love Romney and so Rove is betting that the fundamentalists will eventually become comfortable with Romney as a "Christian" notwithstanding the skepticism that Romney's Mormon faith is considered a "cult" by many fundamentalist Christians because they will have no choice given that they distrust Guiliani and McCain more than they distrust Mormonism (Rove is hoping that neither Huckabee nor Brownback catches fire with the fundamentalists - watch FauxNoise spin the "unelectability" of these two candidates in the coming months).


The Bush family and their consigliere Rove are working full tilt to position Romney as the inevitable Repub nominee. Count on it happening. But what if Rove is wrong and Romney wins the nomination but then loses? That sets up Jeb '12.

More importantly, Rove won't let Giuliani get the nomination because Giuliani would kill the Repub ticket in the South (a whole generation of state legislators, governors, and other Repub functionaries would lose in the South with Giuliani at the top of their ticket - God, I hope he gets the nomination!).

I don't think anyone gets anywhere betting against the Bushes and Rove in the Repub primary.

[NYCGirl]

3. I think Rove is done — the GOP will go with Rudy and drag (pun intended)

intended) the religious right kicking and screaming with them. Romney doesn't stand a chance. And the Bushes have blown it with the GOP.

[Czolgosz]

5. Do you remember how Rove swiftboated McCain in South Carolina in 2000? That will be polite cocktail

chatter compared to what they have in store for Giuliani if his campaign hasn't collapsed on its own before then.

[NYCGirl]

6. The GOP will push 9/11 like it happened yesterday, anoint Rudy as a hero, and

ignore everything else. He's ALL they have.

[Czolgosz]

8. I hope you're right. In a Guiliani vs. Edwards race, Texas would probably go blue again!

[AndreaCG]

9. If the firefighters go on the offensive against Rudy for 9-11

It'll be very hard to ignore.

[NYCGirl]

10. Yeah, but it's the Firefighters Union. You know the GOP cares nothing about

the labor movement.

[HockeyMom]

4. Rudy supports Bush's war

Are Rudy supporters aware of this? Forget all the other stuff for the time being.

It just seems to me all they are looking at are film clips of 9/11 and don't want to see the real man.

[skipos]

7. I HOPE Dame Rudy doesn't get the nomination, but I am not sure it is impossible

McCain would also be hard to beat. MSM is very kind to those two, and I doubt it will change.

I think Newt would be great for us. Romney would be good too, since he wouldn't win MA, and has plenty of baggage to upset the fundies.

[ComerPerro]

11. It will be McCain or some unknown, and they will win the presidency

[Czolgosz]

13. Polling shows many voters think McCain has just waited too long past his prime:

Asked if they’d vote for a generally well-qualified candidate with the followign characterisitics, here’s how veters responded in a recent Gallup poll:

Black 94%
A woman 88%
Hispanic 87%
Mormon 72%
Married for third time 67%
72 years of age 57%

There are a lot of people who think McCain is just too old.

P.S. I will take this opportunity to repeat my favorite McCain quote (addressing Republican Senator Chuck Grassley): "You know, senator, I thought your problem was that you don't listen. But that's not it at all. Your problem is that you're a fucking jerk."

[TwilightGardener]

12. I think Rudy won't wear well--they threw him out there and

to be honest, he doesn't even seem like he is all that excited about running. Jeb Bush might get behind Romney, but the Bushes (arguably the heart of the neocon movement) are going to lose more and more influence as time goes on and Poppy (probably) passes away. Rove is a known quantity now. He is the James Carville of the early 90's--once brilliant at reading politics and shaping candidates, but old hat as the dynamics change. I think McCain might make a resurgence--he is a known quantity to the GOP, it's his turn, SOME people still like him, and he will lose to the Dem. I also think Hagel will do better than people think--he's always been prescient and realistic about the war, he is an alpha male type (GOPers dig that), and once he's actually out there campaigning the GOPers might start coming his way because they know the war has to start winding down pretty soon, no matter what--AND he will protect their hallowed conservative principles. Them's are my predictions.

[earthlover]

14. Who can best beat Guiliani?

We all know that Guiliani's association with 9/11 is probably his one and only strong suit. We know he is weak in other areas. VERY WEAK. However, let's not underestimate the power of the media.

Seems to me the Democrat who could BEST defeat Guiliani would be someone whose national security strengths would dwarf Guiliani's record of...being...a....MAYOR.

Wes Clark has so much foreign policy experience and stature that he could make a joke out of a MAYOR trying to run on foreign policy. It is a joke, but could Hillary make this joke obvious? Edwards? Obama?

I like Obama, but how would he fare against a media who would pander to the foreign policy "strengths" of Guiliani while Guiliani could accuse Obama of being soft on terrorists yadayada and call his objection to the Iraq War soft on terrorism?

Clark opposed the Iraq War and still does, and also is fighting against our involvement with Iran....yet Guiliani would be hard pressed to try to paint the former Supreme Commander of NATO as being soft on defense or security. More importantly, Clark has the stature to make a MOCKERY of a MAYOR's alleged foreign policy "strengths".

[TwilightGardener]

15. I agree that Clark would make a good candidate--

he was my pick in '04. But I think Obama certainly has a very good chance against Ghouliani--if G's the nominee, and I'm not sure that's going to happen. Obama sits on the senate foreign relations committee, and if I'm not mistaken has a degree in international relations--he had more foreign policy experience than Roody. And he will look genuine, intelligent and honorable next to the lisping scumbag weasel if they are ever head-to-head.

[Czolgosz]

16. Edwards, if you believe the polls. Giuliani's support is cushioned by mass ignorance of his position

on most meaningful issues. That ignorance will be mitigated over the next ten months.

Ask yourself this: Will the Repubs REALLY go from the least progressive candidate they have fielded in half a century to the most progressive candidate they have fielded in half a century in four years?

This would be like our primary voters nominating Dennic Kucinich and, just four years later, those same primary voters nominating Henry Cuellar. It's just not going to happen.