A scary forecast about peak oil from a University of AZ professor.

[gauguin57]

Oh dear ... are we already screwed? Within a decade, we could be living in a horror movie. This guy says we'd all better learn how to grow our own food and forage, cuz things are gonna be baaaaad!!! :scared: :scared: :scared:


http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/viewpoints/articles/0406vip-mcpherson0406.html#

End of the world as we know it

You might feel fine, but high oil cost, scarcity mean American Empire is about to come crashing down

Guy R. McPherson
University of Arizona professor
Apr. 6, 2008

(((snip)))

Most of the world's oil pumps are about to shut down. ... Within a decade, we'll be staring down the barrel of a crisis: Oil at $400 per barrel brings down the American Empire, the project of globalization and water coming through the taps. Never mind happy motoring through the never-ending suburbs in the Valley of the Sun. In a decade, unemployment will be approaching 100 percent, inflation will be running at 1,000 percent and central heating will be a pipe dream. In short, this country will be well on its way to the post-industrial Stone Age.

After all, no alternative energy sources scale up to the level of a few million people, much less the 6.5 billion who currently occupy Earth. Oil is necessary to extract and deliver coal and natural gas. Oil is needed to produce solar panels and wind turbines, and to maintain the electrical grid. Ninety percent of the oil consumed in this country is burned by airplanes, ships, trains and automobiles. You can kiss goodbye groceries at the local big-box grocery store: Our entire system of food production and delivery depends on cheap oil.

If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally.

The death and suffering will be unimaginable. We have come to depend on cheap oil for the delivery of food, water, shelter and medicine. Most of us are incapable of supplying these four key elements of personal survival, so trouble lies ahead when we are forced to develop means of acquiring them that don't involve a quick trip to Wal-Mart. ...
:scared:

[Juche]

1. Even if it happens, which I doubt

gasoline can be replaced with compressed air, batteries fueled by the grid, hydrogen, cellulose ethanol, natural gas and probably a variety of other fuels. So the transport grid can be rebuild on a new tech.

We have the technology now to make oil out of garbage via thermal deploymerization, and I'm sure there are other oil sources that become economical at $400/barrel oil.

Civilization will not die. Even if there is a massive rough patch, the benefits of civilization are too great for people to allow themselves to go into a mad max scenario for any extended period of time. I do worry about food production, people in the 3rd world can barely afford food with oil at $120/barrel.

I have heard peak oil predictions before, and most are not nearly this bad. Most just involve crunches that force people to shift energy technology over a decade or two.

[tbyg52]

3. I hope you're right. The alternative isn't pretty.

I'm not an expert, but stuff like the OP makes me consider staying on my larger-than-I-ever-wanted lot (we had adopted eight dogs at the time and couldn't legally live in a city), with its well and septic (which I never wanted either), and investing in some solar panels....

[kestrel91316]

48. Before you do anything else (and YES you should hold onto that

VERY handy piece of land) you want to upgrade your home insulation. JMHO - most places have crappy insulation.

But the well and septic and solar panels all fit into the new reality we are gonna be faced with. Get a solar-powered well pump.

[dysfunctional press]

89. you can hold off on the solar panels for now...

the prices are still high, and the efficiency too low to make them viable for most people at this point. we looked into converting the house we recently bought, and it just isn't anywhere near cost-effective yet. if/when electric rates go WAY WAY up, and/or solar panel rates come down quite a bit, we'll take another look.

and even though we now have room for a LARGE garden, and have well & septic also, i'm having some possible future regrets about selling our chicago two-flat to move just past the very edge of the current suburban sprawl...in the city we had one car, but could have done fine without one at all- now we have 2, and always need at least one. in the city, we had a rental unit for income, and our property taxes were lower.

but i've kind of grown accustomed to all the extra space- not a lot, a little over an acre- but coming from a city lot, it seems enormous.

btw- if it's feasible for you, wind power can be a better bet than solar at this point.

[Subdivisions]

9. er...

Compressed air?

Garbage?

I've so had it with this cornucopian bullshit.

There is NOTHING that can scale up to compensate for decline rates, much less completely replace oil! LIFE WILL CHANGE!

[melody]

11. Yeah, god forbid someone have a little optimism ... I mean who cares about the 1 in 4 depressives?

All those disabled people who can't survive?

I guess we should all just give up and kill ourselves. Silly us!

[Subdivisions]

17. What the hell is optimism going to do for you when you go to your

gas station and there's no gas?

While ya'll are being all optimistic and shit, NOT A DAMN THING IS GETTING DONE TO MITIGATE THE PROBLEM!

But you just go about your way tip-toeing through the Monsanto-patented, oil-based distribution and transportation-aquired tulips!

Some of you Cornys need to wake up and smell the oil-based distribution and transportation-aquired coffee or your going to stumble out of bed some morning to boarded up grocery stores and gas stations.

[rdenney]

43. Bingo! Right On! n/t

[melody]

94. Yeah, let's cheer on the oncoming suicides! That's the spirit!

You guys amaze me. Because you get all charged up on scaring people, you HATE anyone who is cautiously optimistic.

I get the feeling you guys haven't really gone through hard times. lol

[Javaman]

120. Here's optimism. grow your own food.

I'm expanding my garden right now. I'm also investing in dwarf fruit trees.

Learn container gardening. Learn virtical gardening.

Understand planting seasons. get water barrels.

Learn to feed yourself and those around you. :)

just takes time and water. And if by some miricle everything works out just fine, you have a nice food factory in your back yard filled with all sorts of health stuff! :)

[melody]

154. And I believe that's what I said n/t

[Lydia Leftcoast]

45. I'll get on my bicycle

:eyes:

[Subdivisions]

50. Whatever...

That was for the snark.

Now, for a practical response. Bikes are one of the primary means of transportation in a post-petroleum world. They use them profusely in N. Korea and many other countries. I suggest you also get all the accesories, extra tubes, repair tools, etc just in case there's an interuption for those things.

Sidebar: Have you ever flown to N. Korea in Google Earth? The only vehicles on the road are most likely shipping and government. Otherwise there are miles and miles of roads and highways that are nearly devoid of traffic.

[AZ Criminal JD]

101. Yes, N. Korea is a country we should aspire to

The population is starving. And they have no economy at all.

[Javaman]

125. Nice way to goto from zero to 60 in nothing flat.

so why do you hate bicycles? LOL

[zonmoy]

129. which means that they are more likely to survive much better than we are.

since they already have had the starvation deaths that will kill off the population that we will have to face.

[Subdivisions]

139. Did I say anything about aspiring to be like N. Korea? No.

But they are a very good example of how life will be for us if people keep ignoring this issue.

[Virginia Dare]

215. Seriously, I think now is a good time to invest in a small fleet of them..

bicycles I mean. Bicycle sales and repair is probably an excellent career choice at this point.

[napoleon_in_rags]

75. We shouldn't downplay optimism to much.

But we do need to wake up. Nevertheless optimism makes things that seemed impossible seem approachable, like getting rid of my car and going everywhere on bike, which I have done. Too much pessimism will lead to panicking and people hoarding food and holing up with guns which will make things worse, when what we really need to be doing is integrating our cell phone GPSs with public transit and so forth.

[melody]

95. I'm awake. So are most of the Californians I know.

Some basic steps should be taken. But embracing some End of the World scenario (and that's all this is ... just like Y2K and all the others before) may hype up the adrenaline junkies, it doesn't help most people with basic survival skills.

[napoleon_in_rags]

99. I agree that its not the end of the world, but its not Y2K either.

I think its bigger than that - we're in for some bumpy flying for the next decade or two. Our way of life is simply not sustainable, and that fact has left the abstract environmental world and begun to translate into hard economic realities. A lot of changes are going to have to be made.

as far as the depression thing, I should add that I think these are AWESOME times to be living in. We're going to build the better, greener world. Were going to be forced to get rid of some of the bullshit culture out of need. We're going to see communities reborn in a spirit of cooperation born of necessity but preserved for fun and pleasure. Things will be rocky, but okay. We may see some of the meaninglessness sucked out of our lives along with those extra luxuries.

[melody]

104. That's a more reasonable, balanced perspective

When people read posts like the others, it only adds to the depression, the hopelessness and the sense of doom. I wonder if people realize how many people killed themselves with all the talk of Y2K. Some people do not respond to terror. People slip through the cracks every day and the way they do is by being pushed through that hole by others.

I disagree that any "greener, better" world results will come about. I think some of the people who view this post-Peak Oil world are in fact looking for some kind of mass conflagration that will rid the world of all the stuff they despise. It reminds me very much of Armageddon in the eyes of a fundamentalist.

Whatever happens will be painful and difficult but trying to depict the future as some dark, sinister place will not help those who must face it if they aren't the kind who are compelled by fear. It will instead cripple them.

[napoleon_in_rags]

121. That's a good pitfall you recognized.

I think some of the people who view this post-Peak Oil world are in fact looking for some kind of mass conflagration that will rid the world of all the stuff they despise.

The problem with that thinking is the passivity, the idea that in doing nothing a greener world will be handed to us. Of course you're right, it won't. The purpose of optimism is that it allows us to best play the cards we've been handed, but we have to actively play. For instance, these high gas prices have led to less cars on the roads recently. This is bad in that people are having a much harder time. However if we choose to look at it optimistically, we can see that less cars is making a greener world, and we can look for ways to preserve this benefit while seeking solutions to the transportation problems in alternatives, like using IT to create shared transit systems, getting more overweight folks (like I used to be) on to bikes etc. Optimism is just what lets us see possibility in hard times so we don't freeze up.

[melody]

153. Pragmatism, not optimism

Optimism is blinding. A pragmatic hopefulness is not.

And as a fat person who doesn't drive and only walks, I might point out that plenty of skinny people drive cars. Also, fat people are far better "users" of calories -- we get the most out of the food we consume which is one reason we add weight. We therefore will not be as susceptible to starvation. So fat people actually have a surivival edge on our skinny brothers and sisters.

[Subdivisions]

162. Very good point. Listen, melody, you've got this idea that

those of us who attempt to sound the alarm of oil production declines are cheering for pain and suffering. We're not, We're simply trying to get people to think differently and adjust and prepare. That's all there is to it. All you have to do is look at the price on the sign at the gas station and at the price on oil in the markets (versus a year ago) to gain incentive to make changes in the way we use energy.

[napoleon_in_rags]

213. Its true. The people who could be truly regretful are the gastric bypass crowd.

Those folks who made it so its difficult for them to digest calories so they could be skinny. I was having a conversation with a friend last night about the appeal of larger healthy women, as opposed to people who are unhealthy. So yeah, its not about weight or body image, its about the health you get from cycling and walking.

[davekriss]

207. Y2K was a non-event precisely because ...

...it was taken seriously. Billions of dollars were spent to remediate the critical systems that otherwise would have failed when the century changed. Was there hype? Sure. Many made money by fear-mongering others to by their books, but the potential crisis was real and was effectively dealt with. That's the issue today, peak oil and global climate change are real but, unlike the Y2K risk, these "doomsday" risks are not being effectively dealth with by the current crop of politicians.

[melody]

92. Let's put it this way, 1/4 of the people reading this now have some form of depression

Are you happy with the idea that your obsessive-compulsive pessimism may actually hamper their ability to cope? Not everyone gets off on terror. Some of us may keep a bit of hope and work incrementally.

Some of you "Want to wish the end of the world on everyone through my daydreams" people need to realize we will survive ... we will cope. Crippling people with terror may entertain you but it doesn't help anyone.

[SammyWinstonJack]

108. !!!

:applause:

[Subdivisions]

116. How many of the thousands of potentially damaging threads

on this board that could inhibit the ability of depressives to cope have you had to debate? You must be very busy and very sleep deprived.

Nowhere have I said that future oil scarcity makes me happy. I'm not discounting optimism. I'm simply sounding an alarm that very few are taking seriously. I've stated elsewhere in this very thread and elsewhere on this board that an oil-less future doesn't have to be a dark future. You can be blissfully unaware optimistic or you can be practically optimistic. Practical optimism comes from taking action in the face of adversity. There's no reason to believe that the future will be dark if we're taking actions to mitigate the thing that would make it dark. My message isn't darkness, it's about contingency. It's about preparing as if preparing for a natural disaster instead of pretending nothing adverse is going to happen.

Communication of any sort is getting more and more difficult as you have take into consideration the entire range of personalities and difficulties of those who may read your comments. I guess free speech and the expression of ideas is now just a point of nostalgia and wishful thinking.

[melody]

155. Just because I can't dispute them all doesn't mean I can't dispute this one

Think what you like ... salivate over the coming end-times ... make your own choices.

I've made hopeful and pragmatic choices and choose not to be terrified by the oil endtimers. I'm funny that way. ;)

[Subdivisions]

160. I'm not salivating and I'm not terrified and Im not an "endtimer". But

I am somewhat prepared for what "might" transpire in the next couple of years. If I'm wrong, no harm done. If I'm right the transition will be less painful.

If you are wrong, where will your food come from?

[melody]

163. Have you read nothing I've written?

I have local food sources. I'm prepared. In fact, I own my house outright along with a very large yard that all can be planted. I owe nothing to no one beyond taxes. I have savings. I am prepared, which may be why I'm not terrified. I even know how to bag plant potatoes to give away to neighbors who can't feed themselves. That said, I've read enough to know that the reality is not going to be anything close to the end of civilization. You're not even speaking in probabilities ... you're speaking in absolutes. The most dark-thinking oil endtimer foresees the ability for society to handle the problems to come.

If you're wrong, all the terror you're sowing will do all the same damage that BushCheney and their "terrism" is doing. It is the same reaction you're provoking. Now you may need to be terrified to take action, but not everyone responds to that. Some are crippled by it.

[Javaman]

185. "I own my house outright along with a very large yard that all can be planted."

So does that mean you currently have a garden or do you plan to have one when you need it?

[lonestarnot]

187. You'll be needing water for that garden. LOL

[Subdivisions]

189. Are you still accusing me of cheering the...

"end of civilization" and fear mongering despite everything I've said to the contrary. Less oil doesn't necessarily mean the end of civilization. And I don't believe extreme doomers' visions of a Mad Max post-peak world. Actually, I'm hopeful and, yes, optimistic that life will actually be better, with healthier, fresher food and clean air. The non-oil dependent lives we will create for ourselves will be better in immeasurable ways.

It's the transition from this oil-based civilization to the one powered by alternatives that will be difficult for those who might get caught by surprise by the economic and lifestyle challenges that manifest as a result of the steady depletion of oil supplies.

There's absolutely no doubt we will adjust and adapt. But some people won't make it if they aren't able to adjust. My motive for activism on this issue is driven by my desire to see all of us make the transition as painlessly as possible. In order to achieve that, people have to know about it and take actions that preempt the pain. For instance, I, much to L. Coyote's chagrin, "predicted" to my friends and family eight years ago that the lifestyle we've been accustommed to would soon be changing. So, I began planning. At the time I was a construction worker and surmised that I was contributing to the excesses of modern civilatzation that would eventually drain our energy resources to the point that we would have to rethink the way we do things.

I knew then that someday soon the cost of travelling up to 150 miles roundtrip to job sites was going to choke the living hell out of me. So, I taught myself a new trade that allows me to drive NO miles to work. My wife now drive 3 miles RT to work and back. We didn't fall for the sub-prime pitches and we simply refuse to go deep into debt so we don't own a house or have a yard, but we are growing food on our terrace.

And if things get worse than I (or you) suspect, then I do have a "bugout bunker" on 10 acres of land I can fall back to. And, I have two other contigencies: 1)Go to wifes parents homestead. They have all the basics, land, chickens, milk cows, beefs and spare shelter. 2) Also, I have arranged through my activism contacts to share the resources of a two thousand acre farm with all the necessities outside of Sulphur Springs, Texas. But this option is in place only in the event things get worse than we suspect it will and the trigger point for making such a move is very much agreed upon and establised so that, even if we're no longer able to communicate over long distances (The farm owners live in San Diego), once the trigger point is reached, if ever, our actions will be automatic. Short of that point, meanwhile we're stocking tools and supplies, seeds, and other stuff to help us in the event we'll need it.

The actions I've taken have made my life better, happier, and less stressful - and less depressing. I don't make as much money as I did before but when you take away the daily expense of fuel I really haven't lost much at all. Remember, I saw all this coming years ago and did these things and here we are today, with gas at $4.00 a gallon and oil at $120 per barrel. But those prices are no surprise to me as I've expected them to reach those levels for years - but I did foobar that particular notion because those prices are here seven years sooner that I had expected to see them. So, I'm going to have to rethink the situation for 2015.

It's all about realizing there could be challenges associated with energy, heeding the warning signs, and making the changes one can make that will ease what could be a very challenging transition from a petroleum-based society to one less dependent on petroleum. Even the naysayers, deniers, and critics admit that eventually oil will peak in production and begin to decline at some point in the future and our own government sets the peak no later than 2040. So anything we do in response to such an event cannot be considered frivolous because, if not now, someday we will be left with little choice but to adapt or die. But acceptance and preparations now are the very acts of adaptation and dispels the fears of doom and avoids the feelings of despair.

[rdenney]

205. Study said depressives have a heightened sense of reality: they dont wear rose colored glasses like

so many people do. Facts are facts and the fact is that there are to many people and not enough cheap petroleum to feed and cloth them any more.

[Juche]

220. You mean one study

I think that idea is based on one study with light bulbs.

As for optimism, it has been found that optimists, when faced with a problem, actually work to fix it. Depressives just give up and sit in a corner. When cancer patients who were optimistic or pessimistic were compared the optimists were alot more proactive, which is what I am calling on people to do.

I find it hard to believe that humanity survived the resource depletions of WW2 but after 60 years of technological and social advances cannot survive peak oil without becoming a planet of nomads a bit far fetched.

First off, how much of our shipping and economy is based on luxuries? How many calories do we spend growing meat (which requires 7-8 calories per calorie of meat). In the peak oil crunch we may all be forced to be vegetarian, we may not be able to buy a sofa set, big screen TV or something like that. We may have to rapidly scale up alternatives.

But we are spending about $400-500 billion on Bush's tax cuts & the war in Iraq a year and most of us barely notice. We are wealthy enough that we don't really notice half a trillion dollars missing on a truly deep level. If the entire world actually tries to deal with peak oil intelligently I think the risks will be reasonable. But as I said before, we are only at $120/barrel oil and people in Africa or Asia who spend 50% of their income on food are now being asked to spend 100%, and that is not sustainable. And this is just the beginning.

[Terran]

152. Agreed

I'm an optimist to a degree, but Juche's faith in human nature and the free market are totally misplaced. Can you say "Easter Island"? There is NO serious plan to deal with this situation.

[BeHereNow]

223. Sure there is a plan! It's called "Fuck the Victims of Katrina" on a global scale!

The writing was on the wall when they did nothing to
save the people wiped out by Katrina.
Apply the technique to the nation and the rest of the world and you have "the plan."
It was not failure to act- it was deliberate.

The global elite are planning to survive-
the rest of us are ON OUR OWN.

BHN

[Juche]

15. Not in the long run

We have a variety of alternative fuels we can look into using, and taken together they can change the grid on a long enough timeline. We are even working on capturing CO2 from coal plants and using them to grow algae which can produce large amounts of biodiesel and ethanol, over 100,000 gallons per acre per year. It costs about $200 to convert a car into an ethanol car, if we can get this technology off the ground it can help deal with oil shortages. If bitching and whining on the internet solved the energy crisis, I'd be all for your ideas. But R&D into alternatives is necessary if we want to avoid the worst aspects of peak oil. People were making these same end of the world predictions in Malthus's time with food or wood (wood was a major fuel). But people invested in technology and overcame those crashes.

No one said it is going to be easy, but if we actaully work on it now the crash won't be nearly as bad in the future. I personally believe peak oil is why Cheney tricked the US into invading Iraq (so we'd have a large oil field to pull energy from in the next 10-20 years) and why he is so gung ho on any excuse to invade Iran. However investment into new energy is the best solution.

[Subdivisions]

29. I work in the alternative energy industry. I do the reasearch

every single day. You seem like a reasonable person so I'm asking you...no I'm begging you, to take a moment to consider the time frame here. While it is possible to retain some form of energy source and dependence, there simply isn't enough time to scale up any alternative as you're suggesting. We have at most ten years to have an alternative in place and we'd have to accomplish such a feat while each day grows progressively worse as societies collapse and oil declines. We should have begun preparing and building new infrastructure when Jimmy Carter warned us about oil dependence 30+ years ago.

So, what would I have us do since I don't think we'll make the necessary changes in time? I would suggest we forget about a replacement for oil and learn to manage and conserve what's left while learning to live locally. Take my town in north Texas, for instance. We have about 30,000 people here. We have our own lake for water. In the surrounding countryside has enough land within a horse-drawn cargo's ditance that we could grow everything we need locally. The town is small enough that if you eliminated every gas-chugging vehicle from within the city limits, you could still walk between any two points in a fairly short time. Now, extrapolate that to all towns large and small and you would have thousands of localized communities that are using a fraction of the oil they used before. In turn, large cities can also grow food locally but a modest percentage of the oil saved by smaller towns can be used in the metropolises on an ad hoc basis. a portion of that saved energy could also be used to power the manufacture and deployment of solar arrays, nuclear power plants, and wind turbines.

I don't know about you guys, but feasting on food grown right outside my town would be the cat's pajamas! And, as time goes on and there's still plenty of oil to maintain infrastructure and maybe even fly airplanes, we'll learn a new way to live. It doesn't have to be a catastrophic crash into the abyss. But if we're to have any hope of continuing to eat, we must take this shit seriously and, though extremely late as it is, begin a six-year Apollo- or New Deal-style effort to implement a comprehensive program to drastically reduce oil consumption.

No one's saying all the oil will be gone in ten years. But all the "easy" oil is gone, we've passed the point of maximum production and what's left is the dregs. And the very depletion of oil is already causing tidal waves of consequences (Haiti, Zimbabwe, Darfur, Sudan, Iraq, maybe Iran) and the longer we wait to take this issue seriously, the more likely it is that many of us will die of disease and starvation.

[tavalon]

58. Yep, I'm adjusting right now

Will be moving to a closer hospital for work in the fall. Continuing to garden. My chosen community is all well versed on what is coming and what is here. I'm exploring the farmer's markets in my community and getting to know the local growers. This year will be the first year I get all of my produce within the 100 mile radius. I've been shopping exclusively at thrift stores for my clothing for years now, but now I'm fixing the clothes when they tear. And so on.

[Subdivisions]

68. I trained myself to design and manage websites

for five years and parlayed that into a home-based business designing, writing for, and maintaining alternative energy and green living websites (Note: I'm hoping the Internet lasts as long as I need it to while I make my preps). That eliminated up to 150 miles per day round trips to construction sites as a sheet metal journeyman, where I felt I was part of the problem of societal excess. The wife took a 30% cut in pay to change jobs from 30 miles round trip to a 3 miles round trip.

We'd already laid in supplies of flour, rice, beans, canned foods, etc., way before news of panic-buying and rationing. We also put in a potted garden on our apartment terrace with tomatoes, peppers, beans, peas, and more.

I'm very seriously considering selling my truck since all it does most of the time is sit out in the parking lot. We can easily manage with the wife's Dodge Stratus.

[Javaman]

130. I'm growing potatoes for the simple reason that flour, wheat flour...

won't be readily available after a while. And I'm teaching myself to make potato flour.

When cooked, it really doesn't taste much different than regular flour.

Something you might want to keep in mind. :)

Peace.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

222. I'm going to try growing potatoes for the first time this year.

How do you make flour out of them?

[kristopher]

91. Actually we can ramp up in a timely manner. Especially once we take into

Especially once we take into account the bullshit peak oil timeline you installed at the beginning of your series of posts. Had much practice at mongering that fear, have you?

What you describe in this post is a probable outcome of getting off petroleum, but it is going to take longer and cost more to make that geographic transition than it is going to take to retool and build a global grid that can fully exploit the abundance of wind, solar, wave/tidal/current and geothermal that is out there. Both are bound to happen.

We have no shortage of energy and we are in possession of the technology to capture it. If you doubt our ability to meet the challenge, I'd suggest you revisit the armament efforts of WWII and the Cold War.

There is absolutely NO evidence that petroleum will "crash" before a transition can be made either. All you're seeing is, for the first time, a global market that is actually pricing oil by the law of supply and demand. We've dominated to process for so long, people in the US don't recognize the artificially low price for what it has been. There is PLENTY of oil to see the world through the transition demanded by global warming; the fearmongering is uncalled for.

Has it ever occurred to you that the major oil producing nations (where mostly state entities own the oil) are limiting production because they 1) want to deal with climate change (oil has high non-energy value) 2) are tired of the US being obstructionist on conservation and CC, and 3) willing to use oil prices as leverage to move our economy where we don't have the will to make it go ourselves?

[Javaman]

133. Sigh...

Just to make several points about something you wrote...
"We have no shortage of energy and we are in possession of the technology to capture it. If you doubt our ability to meet the challenge, I'd suggest you revisit the armament efforts of WWII and the Cold War. "

some simple facts. In 1941 we were not oil dependant. We actually exported oil. our oil output peaked in 1972.

In 1941 our population was roughly 120 million people, now, it's over 300 million.

Our current coal output of bitumen is a mere shadow of what it was in 1941. bitumen is the good stuff, the low sulfur stuff. The easy to burn stuff. It's vanishing and will peak roughly in about 10 years, if it hasn't already.

When you talk about our armament effort of WWII, it took an act of congress to make that happen. When we go to war via congress, the entire economy changed. Do you know why we were capable of such a colossal output? because everything in the public sector was rationed. Gas, sugar, coffee, steel, aluminum, rubber, meat, cloth, silk, the list goes on and on and on. This was all so the fighting forces could have enough to continue the war.

No shortage of energy? Not right at this very moment, but do to our aging electrical grid, which you may recall a few years ago failed an a monumental way in the Ohio valley, failed do to old equipment.

We maybe able to set up all sorts of solar arrays, wind farms, tidal generators, but without an updated grid it will all be for nothing.

and one other note, do you even know what peak oil means? It won't "crash" as you say. It will get very hard to get to and what we do get to will be thick sour crude. Very heavy in sulfur and heavy metals. It also takes much more energy to refine.

Currently our Energy in for energy out varies between 1 barrel to every 10 extract to 1 barrel to every 15 extracted. This is not including shale or sand. Both of which are very energy hungry to refine.

The "crash" scenario that you speak about happens if absolutely nothing is done. zip. However, unless, major conservation is done and limiting car use and improvement to our aging rail lines, a "crash" of sorts will occur.

The vacuum created between the time oil becomes to expensive for the average person to use and the point by were something is put in as stop gap is closing rapidly.

think of it this way, by the winter time in the north east and people will be trying to pay their oil heating fuel bills but will have a hard time because the price per barrel of oil, at the current rate the price is rising, will be somewhere in the range of 200 bucks a barrel, then the concept of a "crash" could be on it's way to most of those people.

[Subdivisions]

135. You obviously have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, so...

why bother?

[NickB79]

180. As P.T. Barnam would have said if he were alive today

"There's an economist born every minute."

[kristopher]

186. Of course not,

I'm just an energy policy analyst specializing in the move to renewables, why should I?

Your depth of understanding and broad exposure to the relevant components of the problems are undoubtedly why you so accurately and completely failed to appreciate the role of compressed are that one person pointed out earlier.

Compressed air is stored energy, a central feature of a system designed to operate around intermittent remewables and it (CAES) stands ready to play a large part in making dramatic reductions (60%-80%) in the rate of consumption of natural gas used for electrical generation.

But hey, you're the supposed expert; monger away.

[Subdivisions]

188. "I'm just an energy policy analyst

specializing in the move to renewables". Well, good for you! So am I! Well, sorta. But I suspect that your sources of information on the subject are probably the same as mine and we've come to different conclusions. Admittedly, I've not concentrated too much on compressed air, but can it push an 80,000-pound tractor-trailer down the interstate? If so, what would the range be? How do you suppose TPTB will allow an energy source that is AIR and can't be sold by the gallon? What happens when a compressed air tank, compressed enough to propel a vehicle and it's passengers, will act when rupture in an accident? Will it send shrapnel into a passing vehicle, killing someone who otherwise wouldn't have been involved? Who is going to produce these air-compression engines? If air compression propulsion and electric generation is so viable, WHERE THE HELL IS IT?

Answer these questions, energy policy analyst: Will there always be enough oil to meet demand? Is there a such thing as a peak in oil production, and then decline, of individual oil fields and, if so, can this production curve be extrapolated to world oil production?

[kristopher]

201. We apparently do not look at the same sources.

Our present energy infrastructure is complex, and the next generation stands to be no different in regard to complexity.

If I understand you, after I clued you in to CAES, the question it forms in your mind is how does it serve as fuel for a tractor on long haul? Leaving the obvious aside, I'll just respond with since CAES is a means of using stored energy to dramatically increase the efficiency of generating electricity with natural gas, it can help biofuels facilities virtually eliminate fossil fuel input as THEY make the high energy density energy carrier that such heavy lifting requires. CAES can also help V2G meet the load shaping requirements of a grid built around renewables that is picking up the additional load of the personal transportation sector.

Some tasks, like shipping, rail and air require the the energy density of liquid fuels. That is an easy enough demand to meet with biofuels, however we don't want the input for the biofuels to be from fossil. That calls for massive investment (led by world governments, including our) in both grid architecture and renewable sources of generation. See Archer and Jacobson for wind resource analysis and insight into the theoretical basis of wind as a baseload power source. The infrastructure should and will include solar, geothermal, wave/current/tidal. There is no question that the raw energy resources are there in these forms. There is no question that we have the technology to extract this energy. Ten years ago those two statement couldn't have been made with anything like the certainty that is behind them now.

Your second response is that since our infrastructure hasn't yet made the transition then you must be right about something, although it isn't clear exactly what. I mean oil has been above $100 a barrel for what, 6 weeks or so? Imagine that, a couple of months of real economic incentive and we haven't transitioned our transportation infrastructure yet!
So you must be right, we'll wake up tomorrow and everything will be closed and boarded up; there will be nothing left but to kiss our asses goodbye. That is the message of the OP that you endorsed, right?

Did it ever occur to you that because of the expected transition from fossil fuels that is MANDATED by the REALITY of GLOBAL WARMING that at this point the fossil fuel producers have little incentive to invest the tens of billions of dollars required to expand their reserves? They live on this planet too, and those producers outside the US corporate ethical structure, actually can fulfill their financial responsibilities to their citizens, preserve their natural resource for future generations (petroleum has great value besides as an energy carrier), all the while steering the world down a path of renewable energy use.
I'm not saying they are saints, but self interest can manifest itself in many forms. To read increases in fuel prices as some sort of proof of a disaster scenario seems to me to be evidence of a distinct lack vision.

[Subdivisions]

202. Now that is fascinating. It doesn't address the issue of

transportation in quite the way I had imagined, which has been my primary concern, but it is fascinating.

Before I go on, let me apologize for my earlier...er,ahem...foolishness. The thought occured to me after it was too late that you might indeed know what you are talking about. I am always aware while participating on forums such as this that I may be addressing and challenging someone who has a more formal and intimate knowledge of a particular topic than I have. It was inevitable that eventually I would be tripped up and look foolish in front of thousands of eyeballs. But hey, I'm just some J6P on the Internet who really is trying to advance my understanding of our current situation. As such, I'm not afraid of being sternly corrected and schooled when I go astray of the realities.

Moving on.

"CAES can also help V2G meet the load shaping requirements of a grid built around renewables that is picking up the additional load of the personal transportation sector."

Mind you, although CAES sounds promising on the surface, and I will study it more carefully and read Archer and Jacobson as you referenced, there is still the issue of inciting both public and governmental motivation to do it. Short of actually emplacing the infrastructure to both to develop the renewable energy grid and to install the V2G component to supplement it, it's no better than any other theoretical solution to oil depletion. It will take time if it is to happen. In the meantime, we're still on a 2% declining plateau in oil production that could eventually drop of a cliff.

Unrealized, but potentially viable, alternatives aside, I am still interested in hearing your responses to the questions I posed concerning peak oil production, to wit: What is an energy policy analyst's definition of "peak oil"? Will there always be enough oil to meet demand? Is there a such thing as a peak in oil production, and then decline, of individual oil fields and, if so, can this production curve be extrapolated to world oil production? How do we break our oil dependence in order to implement a program such as CAES?

[kristopher]

206. Some things to chew on

Your last question first:"What is an energy policy analyst's definition of "peak oil"? Will there always be enough oil to meet demand? Is there a such thing as a peak in oil production, and then decline, of individual oil fields and, if so, can this production curve be extrapolated to world oil production? How do we break our oil dependence in order to implement a program such as CAES?"
Frankly I don't think much of it as a factor in policy planning. The known reserves are too large and all observed supply behavior is consistent with the fact of such large reserves. I mean, it isn't as if we are talking about give or take a few years. The current reserve to production ratio in Saudi Arabia is 75 years for example. Pressures on the producers to increase production are repeatedly met with the claim that demand and supply are matched; a claim that makes great sense in the light of recent improvements in global systems of product management that we've take place in the past 20 years. Everything in the system, from exploration to gas station is operating closer to the point of matching supply with demand than ever before. So I do think petroleum is going to get much more expensive, but I do not think there is any chance of the price collapsing social order around the world.


"Mind you, although CAES sounds promising on the surface, and I will study it more carefully and read Archer and Jacobson as you referenced, there is still the issue of inciting both public and governmental motivation to do it. Short of actually emplacing the infrastructure to both to develop the renewable energy grid and to install the V2G component to supplement it, it's no better than any other theoretical solution to oil depletion. It will take time if it is to happen. In the meantime, we're still on a 2% declining plateau in oil production that could eventually drop of a cliff."


As you will read, both V2G and CAES are part of the strategy to minimize the costs of integrating higher levels of intermittent energy into the grid. It already has a great deal of flexibility, but it needs strengthening in many regions and some major investment in upgraded control technology, particularly a mechanism that allows instant pricing of electricity to be available to the consumer. That would be a part of the infrastructure installed in the garage along with the interface for recharging automobiles. This allows people to realize when they are overloading the system on a hot summer day, for example. When the price of the electricity spikes in the afternoon, people will defer purchasing power until a time of less demand.

Another good point about both V2G and CAES is that the costs of developing the infrastructure is much lower than had previously thought would be possible for storage on such a spectacular scale. That is most true for V2G where the consumer's transportation purchase will actually pay the largest part of the cost of the system. The price of the rest of the infrastructure in minor compared to the avoided corporate capital outlay.

So what you have that your worries do not incorporate is a technologically and economically viable alternative to a fossil fuel world. When you factor that in along with high reserve to production ratios, increasingly high costs for all carbon fuels, and a coming change in political recognition of the climate change issue - remember Obama has said he will bring Gore on board to manage the response to CC - do you still think we are preparing to drop off a cliff?


I've provided some background below.


The economics of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world
Joseph F. DeCarolis, and David W. Keith

Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA


Abstract

The environmental impacts of fossil-fueled electricity drive interest in a cleaner electricity supply. Electricity from wind provides an alternative to conventional generation that could, in principle, be used to achieve deep reductions (>50%) in carbon dioxide emissions and fossil fuel use. Estimates of the average cost of generation—now roughly —do not address costs arising from the spatial distribution and intermittency of wind. The greenfield analysis presented in this paper provides an economic characterization of a wind system in which long-distance electricity transmission, storage, and gas turbines are used to supplement variable wind power output to meet a time-varying load. We find that, with somewhat optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind turbines, the use of wind to serve 50% of demand adds 1– to the cost of electricity, a cost comparable to that of other large-scale low carbon technologies. Even when wind serves an infinitesimal fraction of demand, its intermittency imposes costs beyond the average cost of delivered wind power. Due to residual CO2 emissions, compressed air storage is surprisingly uncompetitive, and there is a tradeoff between the use of wind site diversity and storage as means of managing intermittency.

Keywords: Wind; Optimization; Carbon
****************************************************
You can find links to the papers below at http://www.stanford.edu/~lozej/publications.html

Archer, C. L. and M. Z. Jacobson, 2007: Supplying baseload power and reducing transmissions requirements by interconnecting wind farms. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 46, 1701-1717.

W. Kempton, C. L. Archer, A. Dhanju, R. W. Garvine, and M. Z. Jacobson, 2007: Large CO2 reductions via offshore wind power matched to inherent storage in energy end-uses.Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02817, doi:10.1029/2006GL028016.


Archer, C. L. and M. Z. Jacobson, 2005: Evaluation of global windpower. J. Geophys. Res.-Atm., 110, D12110, doi:10.1029/2004JD005462.

V2G:
http://www.udel.edu/V2G/

Good summary of battery technology:
"In search of the perfect battery"
Mar 6th 2008
From The Economist print edition

For CAES look for the project at Iowa Association of Municipal Utilities, and the existing plants in Alabama and Germany; plus read:
Energy Policy 35 (2007) 1474–1492

"Baseload wind energy: modeling the competition between gas turbines
and compressed air energy storage for supplemental generation"

Jeffery B. Greenblatt et al

[crispini]

106. Um, just FYI here,

if you live in North Texas (you don't say where exactly) there's a pretty good possibility that your local lake belongs to Dallas. Lake Ray Hubbard, Lake Lewisville, Lake Grapevine, Lake Ray Roberts, Lake Tawakoni, Lake Fork and Lake Palestine. In the event of a big drought, don't count on it. ;)

And to your other point, some of the 'burbs can grow food too. I have an eighth of an acre and I really should get out there and plant those 'maters I got yesterday.

[Subdivisions]

136. Lake Cleburne. And, yes, whoever can grow food should do so. n/t

[WindRiverMan]

161. As I type this, I am sitting about ten miles east of the 2nd largest

natural gas field in the United States. They are drilling at a phenominal pace, so much in fact, that the environmental consequences are starting to hit home in our air and water - and its just been going on for five years. Ten years ago, no one dreamed of drilling this deep formation (wells at 21,000 ft. bgs), today, they are completing a bore hole in 20 days.


I have faith in man's ingenuity and also man's greed. While I say hope for the best and prepare for the worst, I still find the whole doomsday prophecies to be too sensational to rile me.

[NickB79]

181. Any idea of the net output of US natural gas?

It's been in decline for the past decade, despite the technological innovations we've come up with.

We've relied on Canadian imports to make up for the difference, but oops, they've hit the wall too:

http://www.energybulletin.net/3361.html

"CALGARY (CP) - Canada's known natural gas reserves continue to decline even though a record number of wells were drilled in 2003, the energy industry announced Thursday."

To make matters worse, they're using more and more of it to extract oil from the tar sands, so their exportable supplies are dropping even faster than the field depletion rates. Just like with oil, natural gas will peak and then drop off. It looks like North American NG production has indeed peaked.

[Subdivisions]

191. And the furious pace, despite greed, indicates that there is

high demand for it and is being consumed at break-neck pace.

[Subdivisions]

190. Hi Pinedale! Former Jackson resident here. Same thing here

in the heart of the Barnett Shale in Johnson County, Texas. Furiously drilling and the county went from scenic rangelands to drilling pad dotted industrial landscape. But hey, the stove works!

[melody]

96. Don't even try -- these guys want to believe the worst.

The fellow who is in "alternative energy" wants to see Peak Oil nightmares so he can rake in the bucks. So many of these Peak Oil charlatans are just the latest incarnations of the Y2K snake oil salesmen.

You and I both know we will survive because we have to. Anyone drooling for widespread pain and terror is just trying to get off on the end of the world.

[Subdivisions]

138. Nobody's drooling for widespread pain and panic. Tell you what,

you have the option of ignoring the warnings.

Oh, and PO won't enable me to rake in the bucks.

I posted this in response to one of your posts:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3215581&mesg_id=3217495

Chastise me all you want. Ignore all the evidence and the warnings. But, just in case, I'm making calm and practical preparations.

Finally, where is the proof that's there is not an imminent decline in oil production? If there is some, show it to me. I'll venture a guess that you can't because there isn't.

[melody]

151. Ah, but you are. And no one has ignored the warnings.

I have made provisions ... a comment which you'd have seen if you'd read my post.

You're just enjoying inciting panic and terror. You clearly haven't read anything that contradicts your absolutist framework. I've read all the Peak Oil stuff going back ten years. Have you read the criticism of it?

[Subdivisions]

166. No I'm not. I've researched both sides of the issue and, just as

you have reached the apparent conclusion that all is and will be well, I've concluded that I need to change the way I live.

"You're just enjoying inciting panic and terror. You clearly haven't read anything that contradicts your absolutist framework."

Patently false statements. It's clear you've completely missed my point and supplanted it with your notion that I'm a fearmonger. Whatever.

It has dawned on me that you've lured me into a debate on Peak Oil, which I am loathe to do and try to refrain from because some people just cannot be convinced to any degree and I really can't be bothered with much more than a warning for people to be alert to the possibility of future oil scarcity and a few supplemental responses.

You'll be glad to know that you have helped me come to the decision that my posting about oil issues on this board will be coming to end. Perhaps one more comprehensive OP and thread from me on the subject and then I'll no longer be posting on the subject.

[melody]

177. Again, you're not reading what I've said, so I would have doubt about any of your pronouncements

You see what you want to believe ... you haven't read a word I've written.

Have your last word -- there's no point in ongoing discussion.

[aasleka]

34. ha!

http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/04/algae-farm-to-p.html

http://www.eroei.com/articles/2007-articles/state-to-get-biodiesel-facility/

[Subdivisions]

52. HOLY SHITE!!!11!1

I can't believe I just saw a link on DU from a site called EOREI.com!

You get a sticky star for that one =)

[aasleka]

193. You saying it isn't true? Mind refuting it?

[Subdivisions]

194. Huh?

Are you not able to recognize a clap on the back when you get one? One of the primary factors of oil production declines is EOREI. I was glad to see someone post a link to a site that explains the concept of EOREI.

Chillax my brother from another North Carolina mother!

[natrat]

70. compressed air,, are people really this stupid

[Juche]

79. Sorry to disappoint you natrat

But we can't all be uninformed, chicken little imbeciles. You do your thing and I'll do mine.

[zonmoy]

131. I figure they are so afraid of the consequences of their inaction that they are now grasping at

straws to find a way to weasel out of the consequences of not creating a viable infrastructure for our civilization when we had a chance.

[JanMichael]

74. You missed it on the air thing.

Cars can indeed be powered by compressed air. That's a fucking fact. See the AirCar websites. I don't give a link because I think people should find this shit out for themselves.

[TheFriendlyAnarchist]

76. True, but there is energy required to compress the air.

And while there are hundreds of ways to provide that energy, almost every single one of them currently requires petroleum to produce, move, or provide the necessary infrastructure for there energy. It will take a lot longer for us to get the massive amount of energy from none petroleum sources to be able to do that on a large scale.

However that is all the better reason to start working on alternatives now. Compressed air is a place to investigate of course, but it won't be viable for large-scale transit within ten years. However I don't think it will be mad max in that short time. It will be hard, and we may have a semi-Depression type situation, or perhaps even a full on Great Depression, but I don't think that it will be the end of the world.

[zonmoy]

132. where comes the energy to compress the air.

answer me that.

[Javaman]

134. It will be a plug in via solar panels. but that's not what concerns me...

while everyone poo poos any other idea for a form of propulsion, they conveniently forget that all cars, ALL cars that are currently manufactured require between 20 and 50 barrels of oil to make them.

we can all think of all sorts of magic bullets to get us through the night, but if we are to still be a nation based upon cars as our form of transport, we have to figure a way to make cars another way or just fix the old ones.

[NickB79]

204. Compressing air is horribly energy-inefficient

We have large-scale air compressor units at the factory I work at, and when running they throw off MASSIVE amounts of waste heat generated from the force required to pressurize air to high PSI's. That means there's a lot of electricity being wasted that would probably be better used in a true battery-operated vehicle instead.

I also note with dismay that the first time I read of the Air Car was in 2001, 7 years ago. At the time, they claimed it was only 2 years away from widescale release in India and China.

Today, there are still no commercially available Air Cars that I'm aware of, just endless prototypes with more promises of "just another year or two before you can buy one". The MDI CAT models are the closest to production, and they're still listed as being released in 2009-2010.

[dysfunctional press]

87. life always does change...that's the point.

and it flummoxes the conservatives something awful.

[Occulus]

100. IEC fusion/"polywell" reactors.

It's a single, magic bullet for electrical power usage and doesn't require any new physics, only the $200M needed for construction.

Go here and read a while: http://www.rexresearch.com/bussard/bussard.htm

"Why a full-scale demo? Because the system scales oddly: Fusion output goes as the 7th power of the size and Gain goes as the 5th power. Thus there is very little to be gained by building a half-size model; it is too weak to give anything definitive about power production or gain. And our tests were always at about 1/8 to 1/10 scale of the full scale demo. We told the DoD from the beginning that the real program would cost about 150-200 M, since 1987, and they all knew this. However, since the DoD has no charter to do such work, and the political realities were that a big DoD program would attract the ire and power of the DoE to kill it, it was never funded beyond about 1/8 the level required.

So we did what we could and finally DID prove the physics and associated engineering physics constraints, scaling laws, etc, albeit at 1/8-1/10 scale. So what? Doubling the size will not tell us anything we don't already know. The next intelligent and logical step is to build a machine big enough to make net power. And THAT is the same 200 M we have quoted to the DoD since the beginning. "

[LanternWaste]

219. Life always changes.

"LIFE WILL CHANGE!"

Life always changes. I'd start to worry when it didn't. Yeah-- I'm Capt. Obvious, also...

[ixion]

18. not overnight it can't... not even in a month or two... switch will take years

and there will be much turmoil in between, IMO.

[Juche]

20. Oh I know

Its going to be painful and hard, but if we work hard at implemeting the 5-10 alternative transportation fuels we have access to it will be easier than doing nothing until the crunch.

[Subdivisions]

57. I don't know what it is about you, but...

I really like your reasoned approach to this issue, even when aggresively challenged. Yes, it's going to take a combination of alternatives, probably each used efficiently and within there geographic applicability. For instance, algea can be grown in the desert so it would be used and distributed in or near the deserts. New York, on the other hand might produce hemp (holy crap we need that ban lifted!) or corn ethanol or another localized algea species.

But, not only must we begin ramping up alternatives to supplant oil, we must also begin to power down. There's no reason that 75% of the towns and cities in this country couldn't begin to implement strategies that are compatible with their geographic regions. But it won't be easy because you still have to have resources and services that people need that are more difficult to power down. For instance, electric utility trucks would be difficult to convert to horses or electric but a pest control vehicle could be horse-drawn.

BTW, yes, I do believe that in my lifetime (I'm 43) we will become increasingly dependent on horses and other work animals like oxen.

[rdenney]

40. Try using "compressed air" for tractors, trains and ships which transport all the food and goods...

to the four corners of the Earth.

These powerful machines need *RAW* horsepower, the kind that comes from oil or other hydrocarbon fuels, not batteries or "compressed air".

Why is it that when it comes to petro fuels, everyone seems to think only of the alternative for automotive use?

[kestrel91316]

49. Um, how about eating locally and not buying so much plastic crap from China??

Decrease your carbon footprint. Drastically.

I'm doing all I can - I just wish everybody else would, too.

[rdenney]

54. Thats all well and good but you can't feed 6.7 billion people without petroleum fuel presently..

but by all means, do what you can to reduce your consumption of carbon-based products.

[Juche]

65. We will have to change agriculture then

More biotechnology and agricultural tech; more diesel from coal, biomass or algae; more vegetarian diets with less meat; more local growing of crops; switch which crops are grown (fewer low calorie luxury items, more calorie and nutrient dense crops); hydroponic farming; etc.

If it reaches the point of rationing I would hope governments ration fuel for use in agriculture before they ration it for use in shipping of luxury items or consumer goods like TVs or toys. Maybe it'll come to that, and we have to conserve oil and use it exclusively for truly important functions like farming while other uses like shipping DVD players to walmart from China falls apart. But its not a permanent threat. On a long enough timeline we'll figure things out.

I don't believe we'll descend into a mad max scenario and if we do somehow, I don't believe we'll stay there forever. We have too much talent as a species to just give up and resign ourselves to a mad max lifestyle in the face of peak oil.

[NickB79]

183. "you can't feed 6.7 billion people without petroleum fuel"

Exactly.

The global population is going to collapse under the combined weight of energy depletion and global climate change. We get to witness the largest mass die-off of humanity in history in all it's horror, assuming we don't become part of it.

[dysfunctional press]

86. "eating locally" isn't something i'm interested in doing...

if i lived in the tropics, or even near an ocean i might consider it- but as it is...uh-uh.

[kestrel91316]

119. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of CSAs in the Midwest.

If I lived in IL I'd have a HUGE garden. You guys actually get RAIN there. You can grow almost anything. Looks like lots of people are making a nice little LIVING growing all sorts of food in your area.

http://allaboutsquarefootgardening.com/?page_id=35

There will come a day when people won't be able to afford to turn their noses up at local produce. Imported food and stuff transported an average of 1500 miles is only possible because of cheap oil.

I suggest you get familiar with local food sources BEFORE the onset of general panic.

BTW, my sister lives in a suburb of Milwaukee and they get virtually all of their produce a large part of the year from a local CSA. They get their grass-fed beef and chicken directly from a farmer in the area. Even here in Los Angeles, where we have no CSAs, we have LOTS of farmers' markets that sell local produce and eggs and honey. And even though all I have is an apartment balcony now, I have got a tomato plant and herbs, and will soon have cukes and lettuce and eggplant and peppers.

[dysfunctional press]

156. i do have a huge garden...but i like tropical fruit, and seafood...and fresh produce in the winter.

and as long as they're available, i will buy them.

[Juche]

60. I never said use compressed air for agriculture or shipping

Diesel created from algae, biomass or coal would probably be more realistic in those situations. So would using diesel scuderi engines, which can increase fuel efficiency by 30%. If we got half our agricultural diesel from alternative sources and used scuderi engines (aka, used 2008 technology) we could get by with 1/3 as much crude oil diesel for agriculture or shipping since the rest would come from higher efficiency and alternatives. Nice attempt at putting words in my mouth.

This is a serious issue, by 2030 oil production will be down to 1990 levels with far higher demand. We are already seeing rioting due to high food prices that could bring down governments which is in part from oil being $119 a barrel.

There are dozens of things that can be done to combat peak oil, dozens of ways to improve efficiency and use alternatives. If we can keep the oil supply going long enough we can hopefully implement solutions rapidly. We have mobilized for wars in a few years. Britian and the US mobilized for WW2 in a matter of 5 years or so, so this idea that we cannot mobilize for peak oil isn't something I accept. We just don't take the issue seriously enough. During the height of WW2 each major country was producing something like 1000+ tanks a month (just one of many heavy pieces of machinery produced for the war). That was with the tech and wealth of the 1940s. If it comes to the point where the world of the 2010s mobilizes for peak oil the same way it did for world war 2, then we may see results.

And it isn't like oil supply will drop to 0 overnight. It will decline, but as it does if we implement as many solutions as we can we can hopefully minimize the effects.

[rdenney]

67. How does coal fit into the "carbon footprint" thingy that everyone espouses these days?

BTW, there is no way you can make enough "diesel" from biomass or algae to make a dent in the use of petroleum diesel fuel.

Perhaps coal can substitute for petro diesel in a decade or more, but as it stands right now we presently have no infrastructure to produce a high capacity, coal-based alternative to diesel fuel.

[Juche]

73. In America we use about 40-50 billion gallons of diesel a year

I guess I am looking at this situation differently than you all. If we are using WW2 as a metaphor, I am looking at the world in 1944 while you all are looking at 1934. Back in 1934 nobody was taking the issue seriously, nobody was producing anything. But within 10 years the world's economy was largely dedicated to fighting this issue.

If you look at the current global economy, where we spend more money on ice cream than on alternative energy R&D then yeah, we are fucked. But as time goes on I think we will take this issue more and more seriously. If we could mobilize factories to produce huge amounts of weapons for WW2 I think we can mobilize today's factories to stop making DVD players and luxury sedans and start making alternative energies.

When the rubber and fuel supplies were cut off in WW2, countries made synthetics. They survived. If we could mobilize the economy and science to deal with WW2 I think we can do it to deal with peak oil.

The dems are pushing $15 billion a year in investment for alternative energies. That is nice, but $15 billion is about what we spend each year on porn. It is still not taking the issue seriously.

I'm of the belief that we have the technology and ideas to drastically change our energy habits right now, we just aren't using them. If we are backed into a corner, we will start using them but it may be a painful crunch before that happens.

[Javaman]

127. Because as americans we all feel this sense of self entitlement?

you should know that by now! LOL

All food we get is grown at the supermarket. All gewgaws that we buy are manufactured in target, walmart or sears by someone in the back room named china.

We all think that our gas comes out of a hose at a station and is magically put there for our own selfish use.

When we fly, the planes simply defy gravity.

And the smoke that comes out of a trains stack is purely for effect. Because all trains go choo choo. LOL

Don't laugh to hard, there is a huge segment of the US that honestly believes much of what I just wrote.

There is such a colossal disconnect on this board regarding the peak oil and a "switch over" (which I find laughable) it is truly staggering.

I wrote in an editorial a while back, that if we as a race are to survive, we have to figure out a way to do two things: Learn how to smelt metal without the use of fossil fuels and figure out a good lubricant for any machines that are manufactured after we have figured out how to smelt metals.

everything else is basically useless knowledge. Powering our homes with solar, wind and water is really wonderful, but if there is no way to manufacture spare parts, it will all collapse withing 25 years.

We get those two things, the basics for an industrial civilization will continue.

Peace :)

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

137. Well, that would be fine.

You can get massive horsepower out of compressed air.

The issue is still how you pressurize the air in the first place.

[roguevalley]

55. I live in alaska. we can't grow things past a certain date.

[zonmoy]

128. I figure the best bet is to assume the worst case scenario is going to be true

while hoping for a slightly better case scenario.

[chaska]

143. You MUST read this: "Net Energy and Jevons' Paradox"

http://www.energybulletin.net/42331.html

[Burma Jones]

159. If Oil is at $200/bbl, huge deposits that were uneconomical to extract

will be brought online. This happened back when Norway and the UK opened up the North Sea oil fields, which, until the 1973 oil price shock and subsequent oil price increases, were not economically feasible to develop. The North Sea oil did not start making it on the global markets until the early 1980s, when inflation adjusted oil prices plummeted. There is plenty of oil, there just isn't plenty of Cheap Oil.

[NickB79]

203. And those $200/barrel fields will yield $6-$10/gallon gas

Which will lead to:

$8/gallon milk.

$5/loaf bread.

$5/lb ground beef.

And vast numbers of unemployed people, social unrest, riots, etc.

This helps avert the 2nd Great Depression how? Oh yeah, it doesn't. It just sounds reassuring to the sheeple who think that a little more drilling will solve all our woes.

If our economy is starting to buckle at $120/barrel, how can it survive $200/barrel? At that price, the oil becomes economically viable to the oil companies to extract, but it spells destruction and despair for the rest of us.

[Burma Jones]

214. Well then, hurry up and die so the rest of us can have more room

People made it through paradigm shifts before and will do so again. Adjusted for inflation, Gasoline is about 40 cents above its peak in the early 1980s.....

Destruction and despair, uh huh........Get a grip and make some adjustments, I don't know your age, but if you know anybody that lived through the Great Depression, I suggest you have a chat with them.

[NickB79]

216. I've chatted with my grandmother abou the Great Depression often

Her little brother died after being kicked by a horse on the farm, and they couldn't afford to take him to the doctor. My grandfather had his life threatened by booze runners so that they could set up a still in his woodlot.

They lived off of vegetable stew day after day using vegetables grown from their own land.

They barely kept the family farm from being taken by the bank.

And this was at a time when there was no energy crisis, the world population was only ~2 billion rather than 7 billion, and many people still used livestock to plow their fields rather than diesel-fueled tractors.

[Burma Jones]

218. Granted, there are a lot more people around these days

But I do think that, in the West at least, we'll get through the next 20 years without mass death and destruction.

My grandparents left their farms and got jobs in the steel mills around Gary, Indiana somewhere around 1930, it worked out for them and they did well although all four of my Grandparents worked long hours until they retired. My Wife's family were German Jews in the 1930s, so, I get some perspective from them.......

I apologize for the snotty tone I took previously....I always get jacked by the term "sheeple"

[WillyToad]

226. Oil is the problem, not the solution

We are releasing a couple of billion years of stored carbon in a geological instant. Do the math.

[LiberalEsto]

2. Better dust off my Euell Gibbons books

"Stalking the Wild Asparagus," etc.

[gauguin57]

7. Or Jethro Kloss' seminal herbal medicine book, "Back to Eden," first published in 1939.

http://www.amazon.com/Back-Eden-Jethro-Kloss/dp/0940985098/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1209344379&sr=8-1

Gotta learn to make our own medicines. Well, at least we'll sock it to Big Pharma while we scratch at the dirt and mutter, "I'll never be hungry again..."

Google Books preview of Back to Eden

http://books.google.com/books?id=Pjma9L3OLWwC&printsec=frontcover&vq=back+to+eden+jethro+kloss

[SammyWinstonJack]

115. "Ever eat a pine tree? Many parts are edible."

:evilgrin:

[LiberalEsto]

145. My favorite!

Pine tree au gratin.

:9

[kittykitty]

158. Cat Tails in the spring are delicious! You have to find them before the cat tail emerges and

they are white, small, knobby things. Steamed,they are just like tender corn. Later, they emerge and are covered with a yellow pollen which is high in vitamin A, and can be collected and added to flour for color and nutritional value. Finally when the tails go to seed they are covered with a fluffy stuff, like dandelions or milkweeds. This can be used like kapok to stuff pillows. Just one thing I have done from Euell Gibbons book.

[notesdev]

4. This is why

he's a professor of "conservation biology" and not a professor of economics.

I'm willing to call his bluff: I'll pay him $10 today for all his possessions in 11 years from now. If he's confident in his prediction, there's no way I'd be able to collect (being halfway across the country), and it would mean free money for him.

[Subdivisions]

12. You don't have to be a fucking professor to

read the writing on the wall!

All you gotta do is research and most who do usually wind up with storage space, basements, closets, and storm cellars full of flour and beans and such.

Send me the $10. I'll put it on my next donation to DU!

[tavalon]

64. So, as an aside, how does one store flour for any length of time

Got any tricks?

[Subdivisions]

71. I found a source for sealed dry-storage barrels similar to

these:

http://qconlineauction.com/site/view_ad.php?v=31038

and I line them with high-mil plastic bags. Once filled, I close them and put a lock on the clamp ring that secures the lid. I then wrap them externally with shipping wrap and place them in a sheet metal cabinet that I built to my own specs, which basically means fortifying the food against mice and rats, though it would take a mighty industrious rat to get in them with no protection.

How long will the food last? That I don't know. I've just done what I thought I needed to do to preserve the flour for as long as possible.

Does anyone have a guess as to how long flour lasts in storage? Rice and beans will keep a very long time.

[tavalon]

80. Thanks, that's actually very useful

Now to find a reasonable flour source since I have to use very different flours.

[eShirl]

103. wouldn't it store longer if you bought whole grains and a hand-powered mill?

as far as it going rancid or not?

[eridani]

33. Economics is disconnected from reality

It ignores the "externals" without which we can't survive.

[depakid]

46. Neoclassical macroeconomics ignores most natural laws

and most of its purveyors act as though the "the circular flow" is a perpetual motion machine, divorced from the larger systems on which it utterly depends.

[mnhtnbb]

5. U of AZ professors probably have sunstroke. Peak oil predictions

aren't going to impact us for more than a decade.

We've lost invaluable time for developing alternative energy sources, thanks to Bush/Cheney.
But I'm more concerned about economic meltdown in this country due to warmongering than energy scarcity.

[tavalon]

59. What are you talking about?

How many people are still predicting that peak oil is in the future?

[mnhtnbb]

78. Plenty of oil analysts think we could have until 2018 before global production peaks.

Worst case predictions indicate we've already passed global peak oil--and some think it will happen this year.

Nobody knows for sure--until we pass the peak.

[tavalon]

83. We're already pulling out less than we did in the 70's

Wouldn't that be an indicator that we've passes peak oil?

[mnhtnbb]

84. US production peaked in the 70's. GLOBAL peak production is still

anybody's guess.

[NickB79]

184. We've been on a production plateau since 2005

World oil production has gone flat, despite record oil prices, at approximately 85 million barrels per day for the past 3 years. At the same time, global demand from Asia has skyrocketed.

What does that imply?

[Subdivisions]

192. And the longer the plateau is, the steeper

the decline on the right side of Hubbert's Curve will be.

[Indiana_Dem]

6. Another enlightened one! Yay! Don't be afraid, become prepaired and informed.

My blog has lots of links...peaknik.blogspot.com

[defendandprotect]

8. And what of "Necessity is the Mother of invention" ... ?

Knowing all of this --- and having known all this for quite some time --- where is the alternative, non-fossil fuel, energy?

What of the celebrated capitalistic marketplace where all ideas are equal and can come forward?
BS, by the way . . .

The owners of oil and our other national resources are the same people --
and they have had us all by the throat since they gained control over our natural resources ---
and they are tightening the hold ---

Bring forth solar, wind, cell --

Bring forth Electric Cars and let's start up Detroit again ---

This BS car industry is simply working for the oil industry ---

Who cares about peak oil?

In fact, it may make war harder to wage????

What a blessing that would be!!!

[defendandprotect]

10. This is the culture change we need ---

Ninety percent of the oil consumed in this country is burned by airplanes, ships, trains and automobiles.

And, if I recall correctly, 80% of our water is used by business ---

Back to the cities and back to local farms ---

Let's back out of the BS ---

[natrat]

25. ok that doesn't change the fact that a whole lot of people are going to die in such a transition

[Lydia Leftcoast]

42. Well, if they insist on holing up in their McMansions and

fighting over gas for their SUVs, yeah, but if they spend the time remaining to transition to more environmentally responsible ways of life, they'll survive, perhaps even thrive.

[tavalon]

61. I wish it were the McMansion SUV drivers who are going to die first,

but no, it's going to be the people on the edge of poverty right now.

[defendandprotect]

140. Only if we continue to fail to respond . . .

And that's non-response has been programmed by the right-wing and the oil industry over 30 years ...
and they are still fighting a legitimate response which would be to nationalize our oil industry
and put electric cars on our roads.

GW was an issue when JFK was president ---

People are going to die whether we respond or not ---

And the reason for it is betrayal by our legislators who were bought out by the oil industry ---
and the political violence they have used to take control of our government.

[melody]

13. These are nothing more than people in love with the "endtimes" in other forms

They love scaring people (and thereby feeding their own greed and ego).

Everyone will survive. Worse things have happened.

[defendandprotect]

141. Everyone will not survive the chaotic weather to come . . .

in fact, it's questionable as to whether our planet will survive -- !!!

OPEC knew full well that they were going to have to curtail or stop production of petroleum --- and more than ten years ago they were asking then for subsidies when that time arrived !!!

The oil industry nonetheless continued to respond by buying out government/legislators and propagandizing the public to deny GW --- which was successful up to the last three or four years.

Meanwhile, the planet is not indestructible --
About 15 years ago, we had a report in the NY Times pointing out that the dams and reservoirs that our Army Corps of Engineers built since the 1940's were "impacting the rotation of the earth."

No one can say how all of this will compound -- GW, pollution of air, seas, waterways --
and population reaching 7 billion!!!

[melody]

157. Okay then we should be terrified and put a gun in our mouths?

Hopeful pragmatism isn't going to hurt or help one way or the other. It will keep us from killing ourselves before the environmental Armageddon so many are hoping for.

[defendandprotect]

164. Or, you can plant a tree, protest to government, keep others informed . . .

move to take back government from corporations ---

fight to nationalize oil and other natural resources ---

end patriarchy and organized patriarchal religions ---

Yes, there are religious fanatics who seem to suicidally be pushing for the "end times" . ..
however, I don't notice them actually killing themselves.

THIS has nothing to do with that ---

it has to do with patriarchal suicidal instincts --- and unregulated capitalism ---

Population gone wild, of course, is another issue of control over women's bodies by patriarchy.

[melody]

179. The ones who push for the end times (and wish for them) are never the ones who kill themselves

It's the innocents we never hear about.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

14. We'd go back to a pre-World War I lifestyle,

which is hardly "Stone Age."

My grandmother, born in 1899, used to tell about life during her childhood. There were cities, and people living in them survived. Freight, including food, came in by horse or by railroad.

When her family moved from one town to another, they rented a boxcar, loaded their furniture onto horse carts, which took the furniture to the station. They then paid the railroad to attach their boxcar to the train that took them to their new town. When they arrived, they hired horse carts to carry the furniture to the new house.

A lot of our luxuries would be missing, and our diets would be more monotonous, but we would survive. Those who were willing to adapt might even discover inner resources that they didn't know they had.

[natrat]

26. the only reason there are 300 million americans is oil-subtract that and subtract 275 million people

[Lydia Leftcoast]

37. I'm pretty sure there were more than 25 million Americans before WWI

:eyes:

In fact, I just looked it up. The population in 1910 was 92.2 million.

[kestrel91316]

51. Heck, it wouldn't even be totally pre-WW II. We can still have antibiotics and

the internet, IMHO, if we are willing to make lots of sacrifices in other areas. Like giving up most the toxic plastic crap from China and strawberries from South America in January and driving alone in a SUV all over Kingdom Come day and night for the hell of it. I mean, seriously. Our lifestyles are 90% fluff as it is.

[galledgoblin]

16. I buy that we're reaching or already passed peak oil...

but "If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally."??

LOL

peak oil will just force us to actually act on all those decisions and changes we've put off making the last 50 years.

we'll use mass transit.

trucking will see a vast drop in demand as prices sky-rocket as shipping shifts back to sea and rail.

yeah, we'll buy more local, but don't bother stockpiling luxuries, they'll still be available, albeit probably at a higher price.

WE'LL ADAPT.

[Juche]

22. Yup

People may be forced to take the bus, or eat food grown at a local farm (rather than shipped thousands of miles), or buy a plug in hybrid, or use a scooter to get to work. Semis may be forced to use biodiesel grown from algae, people may buy cars that run on hydrogen or compressed air, plastics and synthetics will be made of coal instead of oil, etc once gas hits $7/gallon.

But civilization will survive, we have become too spoiled by it to voluntarilty go back to the middle ages and stay there. One of the predictions of peak oil is that as price goes up alternatives become more and more desirable while alternative sources for oil become cost effective. As a result there isn't a harsh crunch, just a 10-30 year transition period that has troubles but nothing mad max about it.

Europe has been surviving with $6-7/gallon gasoline for a while, which is what we'd pay in the US if oil were $250-300/barrel or so and we replaced the gas tax with a progressive income tax (which we can do if we need to, elimiate the fuel tax and use another tax to pay for it). They are not geographically the same as the US, but they have survived that kind of a price.

[natrat]

27. so you think that new york a city of 10 million can feed itself locally in winter , please

[Juche]

30. Do they need bananas from Latin America

Grain and corn is grown in the midwest a few hundred miles from NYC. It is feasable.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

41. New York City had 5.3 million people in 1914

:shrug:

[galledgoblin]

85. NYC alone? no of course not

but add the hinterlands of the entire fricking northeast? NYC will be fine.

in fact, after the dust settles, it'll probably be cheaper to live in the cities than to continue to live in the 'burbs.

[Leftist Agitator]

19. Seven words that make all the difference (in my case):

Edible Wild Plants of Eastern North America.

Oh, and for extra credit: Outdoor Survival Skills, and The Encyclopedia of Country Living.

Walk outside. Can you name at least ten edible plants that you can see from your front door (unless you live in a city)?

If not, you're screwed if/when the shit goes down. But there is still time to learn. Make use of it while you still can!

[natrat]

35. yea a little cabin in the woods somewhere might do the trick,but yea time is critical

[Leftist Agitator]

44. Fuck a cabin.

Too permanent.

Here are excellent jumping-off points for further study:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survival_skills

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Survival_skills

[tavalon]

62. I've been salivating over my front yard for a week now

Dandelions. Mmmm, mmmm.

[Leftist Agitator]

69. Where do you live, tavalon?

There are wild plants that beat "pisselint" greens hands down.

For example, wild chives, RAMPS (that's the WV in me), violet leaves, etc.

You can eat damn near anything that grows wild in my part of the country.

How is yours?

[tavalon]

81. Well, my knowledge base isn't good and needs to get better asap

but I live in the Northwest. In August, I turn into a blackberry or one would assume so, since we are what we eat. Usually by September I can't bear to see another blackberry but come the next August, I'm back at it with gusto. We have a number of other berries that grow wild here. I'm fairly sure that as I do my research, I will find plenty.

[El Pinko]

21. Peak oil is clearly near or already here, but these predictions are a bit much.

I think that as supply tightens and demand grows, price will continue to rachet up, making alternatives more and more profitable and popular.

Why assume 100% unemployment when the development of these alternatives will clearly create so many jobs?

NOBODY wants to go back to the stone age - even if it means we all drive electric cars powered by a bunch of new nuke and coal plants.

I think this guy's scenario is too abrupt and cynical. Things will be tough, but humanity will pull through.

The more pressing and serious problem is population growth, which needs to be brought down to zero worldwide if we are to survive as a species.

[Juche]

23. Population growth drops to 0 once a country gets decent healthcare

The total fertility rate drops to 3.0 or less after a country obtains a moderately decent economy and healthcare system. Knowing your kids won't die in childhood causes parents to stop having more than 2 kids.

Of the countries where total fertility rate is higher than 3.0 virtually all are poor countries with crap healthcare and economies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate



The only real threat to world population I can think of is if the ideas of people like Aubrey De Grey come true and we conquer aging and create immortality sometime in the next 100 years.

[notesdev]

66. A good long term investment

would be extraterrestrial human colonies.

It is in the nature of humanity to grow in number to fill our environment, as it is for any living creature. Either this dooms us to periodic wars on a massive scale - see Chinese history for a sample - or it impels us to look outward to seek new horizons.

So if for no other reason than to avoid the an inevitable mass slaughter of humanity, or to provide an insurance policy for the continued existence of the human race, we ought to get cracking on putting people on the Moon and on Mars, and make a serious investment in research on propulsion technology and the other tools we'll need to get that job done.

[rdenney]

77. "Extraterrestrial human colonies?" Hell, we can't even build a decent space station on time....

...No way masses of humans will be using space as a habitat anytime soon.

Seems like having fewer children would be a better idea anyhow.

[defendandprotect]

165. Patriarchy and organized patriarchal religions, of course, also impact

population --- as control over a woman's body reverts back to women themselves, population decreases.

[gauguin57]

24. Only the Amish, Scientologists (underground bunker) and members of polygamous cults will survive!

Oh, and cockroaches and Cher, as the old saying goes.

[tavalon]

63. Not all of us are cults

I'm just saying.

[noamnety]

28. I've been redoing my yard over the years

to be more sustainable. I saw a youtube video recently where a family had converted their yard into a garden, and on a tenth of an acre lot, they produced over 6,000 pounds of food annually. Me, I am not working as intensively as they are, but I've got more yard. I've been putting in fruit trees and berry bushes over the years, and expanding out edible perennials. For $12, I just got 26 sets of asparagus roots, and threw those in the ground yesterday. And there's a regular garden as well. This year, one of my goals is to make a real effort to start saving seeds. The hot peppers I'm growing this year are from saved seeds, I just broke one of my dried peppers into some peat a few weeks ago, and now I have seedlings.

Next year's goal is to start growing a small patch of grains, to see how that works.

Maybe I'll need the plants in a decade, maybe I won't and it will just be a hobby. But it seems smarter to me to plant apple trees instead of flowering crab apples, smarter to plant real pear trees instead of flowering pears that produce no fruit. Better to plant blueberry or gooseberry bushes than small shrubs that just sit there.

I've done foraging before when I was poor, it wasn't bad, but I grew up in the country, and as a kid we learned to gnaw on sassafras trees and pick wild berries, so it comes natural to me. My daughter said people were pointing at her and talking about her when she walked by a tree once in town, grabbed a sugarplum off it, and ate it without thinking.

[kestrel91316]

53. If you don't have it already, pick up a copy of

Carla Emery's Encyclopedia of Country Living.

Read up on chickens and rabbits so when the need arises you can keep a few. And breed them to sell to the neighbors.

[noamnety]

102. I would love to have chickens

but I need 3 times more land to qualify, according to local zoning laws. Maybe they'd ease up on those if times got rougher, I don't know.

[eShirl]

105. how about guinea pigs?

http://gosouthamerica.about.com/od/cuisine/a/cuy.htm

[SmokingJacket]

112. I'm the same way -- I eat what I find.

My mother grew up in Europe during the war, and passed on some habits. I was walking through the woods with a friend and grabbed a handful of berries and ate them. My friend was like, "What, you just eat stuff you find lying around?" Basically.

I bought four fruit trees this weekend, hoping to pollinate the two trees I already have. Put in four blueberries last year. My strawberry plants should arrive next week... I turn those into jelly.

I used to work in a restaurant and more or less lived off of wrong orders and sent-back desserts... so much waste in this country.

[defendandprotect]

168. Presumabl y this once was all the Garden of Eden . . .

[coriolis]

31. The only part of that scenario that is debatable is the timing.

It won't happen all at once...but in a decade the first symptoms will be obvious even to the most die-hard neocon types.

[defendandprotect]

169. The symptoms have been obvious to anyone paying attention since the 1980's . . .

at least ---

In fact, immediately after we started exploding atomic bombs in the 1940s -- !!!

Ah . . . air conditioning !!!

For scientists, it was obvious much earlier --- since the beginning of the industrial revolution
our impact on nature --- especially trees --- was noted. See: The Dying of the Trees/Chas. Little

[aasleka]

32. Boogeyman!

Sounds like someone has not been paying attention to new technologies including the Arizona algea to oil project which is slated to have Northrop Grummond deliver it's first refined jet fuel in 09. If you have shit, you can get oil. Maybe he hasn't seen the Chinese made sloar powered air conditioning units or ever heard about Hydrogen and although currently it is expensive to make the gas Startech seems to have an easy solution, hey, heat up garbage to about 30,000 degrees and you can refine the gas for hydrogen. There are plenty of things coming but it is imperative that we save any reserves like the artic reserve unless it is absolutely necessary.

[gauguin57]

38. Or, perhaps he's heard of all of those things, but wants to make sure new technologies are greenlit

in a big way. Folks need to be reminded we're in trouble, or no one will do anything!

[defendandprotect]

170. Anything more based on the burning of fossil fuels is OVER . . .

[Rydz777]

36. It's a basic fact that the whole globalization project depends

on transporting vast amounts of products around the world - with heavy consumption of energy.

[gauguin57]

39. All I know is that I want my Mommy.

And since she's no longer with us, I want my Blanky and my (battery-operated) nightlight!

[kestrel91316]

47. I think he is assuming (wrongly) that no one on the planet will figure out how to

ride a bicycle or walk or plant a backyard garden.

I'm pretty much a PO doomer myself, and I think this guy is seriously whacked in his ten year assessment. I sure hope I'm right and he's wrong.

[rdenney]

56. I don't agree with this assessment either, but we are in for some HARD times ahead...

no way are things going to be as they were....which may be a good thing in the long run, but not short term.

Tighten the belts up and hold on: its gonna be a roller-coaster ride from hell for a while.

[melody]

93. Some of us have already been through horrible times ... this is nothing

Maybe people with comfy lives will find this terrifying but, hell, I grew up with much worse conditions than having to grow a few groceries and forage some. I'm sure people in McMansions will be in for a world of hurt.

I paid off my home and my bills. We'll be okay.

[gauguin57]

72. Wow ... I was a little scared when I started this thread.

Now, after reading some of the responses, I'm heading toward "freaked out."

:crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

[patrick t. cakes]

82. how long do seeds keep?

does it depend on the plant?

[L. Coyote]

88. There is always someone saying this. How is it connected to reality?

How do you argue with people who foresee the future, but not the windmills.

[Subdivisions]

90. How is it connected to reality?

Too many connections to mention here. Why don't you explain to us how it isn't?

At least that way no pagination is required.

[L. Coyote]

107. The future is not reality. The present is. Simple enough.

And people who foresee the future usually have a mental disorder.
Not to mention, how wrong they can be.

[Subdivisions]

117. Well...

A year ago I predicted all by myself that oil would surpass the $100 a barrel mark in 2008. In fact, I'll predict the future for you right now: I predict oil will end 2008 somewhere between $180 and $200 per barrel.

I guess that means I have a mental disorder.

L. Coyote: Your nick is one of those I most readily recognize as I generally agree with you on the issues you follow, such as elections and election reform, as well as your recent support of Don Siegleman. I have never responded to your comments dismissingly, rudely or disrectfully. However, I notice that you almost always respond in those ways in threads on this topic and there have been some instances where I felt you were simply poking me personally. The latter may just be my imagination. The former can be verified. Why do you make it a point to discount this topic without offering any substantiation of your position that there is now and never will be an issue with our access to oil? If you can show me that I've strayed down a dead-end path, I'm more than willing to take a new one if I'm shown a better way to go.

[defendandprotect]

171. The future was made quite fuzzy by oil industry propaganda over 30+ years . . .

and the oil industry buying our government/legislators ---

[Bluebear]

97. For this I quit smoking? nt

[gauguin57]

200. OK, Bluebear, now THAT made me laugh amid the doom and gloom!

Yeah, really. Wow ... I hadn't thought this all would mean that I might as well take up all my old bad habits again! Woo-hoo! If you want me, I'll be under my bed, doing 10 shots of Irish Mist and smoking six cartons of Salem Lights (do they still make them?)

[Neshanic]

98. Dope cloud over Tucson will power the future say U of A researchers.

The new methods of harvesting the gigantic dope cloud that hangs over this city will be in place by 2015, say U of A researchers. The harvesting will power and cool homes, and will employ gigantic industrial sized bongs that will transfer the cloud into energy.

One of the effects that may take place that researchers are still working on are mass migrations of people out of the city used to the smell of dope in the air and it's effects on them.

[SmokingJacket]

109. Can't wait! We'll eat the deer in my yard. nt

[dawgman]

126. I'll go for the thousands of rabbits at greenlake.

in seattle

[paparush]

110. One gallon of gasoline can physically move my car 45 miles...

45 miles. That's a long fucking way.

This is how i talk to my friends and colleagues about replacing oil. Think about trying to push that car 45 miles. Or 1 mile, or 100 yards. Think about the energy that would take. THAT's how much energy is contained in that one little gallon of gasoline.

Find another way to move that 2000 lbs of car 45 miles.

People don't realize the amount of energy they are talking about replacing.

Possible? Yes.
Easy? No.
Cheap? Probably not.
Opportunities for growth and financial reward for those willing to develop the new tech paradigms? Definitely.

[L. Coyote]

111. On DU, Doom and gloom sells like hot pizza in NYC. Why is that?

Meanwhile, trying to find a well-reasoned discussion .......

[mainegreen]

113. Because people like extremes?

[Subdivisions]

118. Ok, from now on...

bad news and thoughts are banned. From here on out it's all wine and roses, dancing in flowery meadows under sunny skies and breezy days.

[L. Coyote]

122. Lots more critical reasoning. I like that idea.

[shanti]

114. according to the mayans

we only have until 2012 anyway :eyes:

[L. Coyote]

123. according to the pseudo-scientist, tree-killing publisher maybe. My Maya friends

haven't heard about this. There are millions and millions of Maya, and none of them knew about this.

Selling the doom and gloom is big business. At DU, it is free!!

[zonmoy]

148. The mayans had a cyclic calendar.

2012 was the end of the cycle/story and undoubtedly the beginning of the next story. whether the story will be a good one is if we actually find some viable alternatives to fossil fuels. something that I have yet to see any that aren't little more than pipe dreams.

[leeroysphitz]

124. The Survivors will envy the dead!

[Indenturedebtor]

142. Nah

I'm more concerned about global warming than peak oil. There are plenty of technologies available to us to slide on into. There's no need to panic, just to act.

BTW to poster upthread... that flour will go rancid after a year or so. You're probably better off canning cooked potatoes and the like and forgetting about bread assuming that age old armageddon thing goes down :eyes:

This peakoil thing is silly... seriously. The oil isn't going to just dissapear overnight. There will be a few years of near chaos as we make the switch such as we're having now, and then we'll be on to all the other sources of energy and storing that energy.

Providing all of this transporation energy wouldn't be so hard if we didn't do it so damn inefficiently. And hopefully soon we will do a better job at using it efficiently.

Oh and please people get rid of your damn SUVs already. You don't fucking need it. They've only been around for 20 years or so. How do you think people got along without them?

[chaska]

144. You must put an end to your ignorance, friend.

Read "Net Energy and Jevons' Paradox": http://www.energybulletin.net/42331.html

You're right, it is not so cut and dry as all that. The future is unknowable. BUT, there is currently no workable replacement for oil, and there will likely be none.

[Indenturedebtor]

174. Read the two articles

Very interesting, and concerning. Thanks for posting.

I don't agree with everything the guy says though. For one thing given todays massive oil consumption his assertion that simply building the infrastructure would make much of a difference in supply is a bit over the top. Drop in the bucket.

Secondly he ignores the possibility of a massive switch to public transport and car pooling, and to trains for long hauls etc. Yes you currently do need petroleum to do the work to mine the coal, etc. But there is no reason that we can't do that using electricity/biodiesel. I mean this guy assumes that there will suddenly be NO oil to make the transition with. They will suck it out of the shale of Colorado if it gets that dire.

Society will find a way to keep going. Our lives may become easier or more difficult, and this will be hardest on the countries that were convinced to grow cotton instead of yams, but the world will not completely fall apart overnight.

Any of you who are concerned with this know that Obama is proposing an Apollo Program for alternative energy! Go check it out at his website.

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/

Now I don't think that this is "enough" but it would sure as hell help alot!

The author of that post you linked doesn't talk at all about using "secondary processes" to gain energy from thing like burning coal and using the carbon to grow algae for biodiesel, or cellulosic ethanol, etc. There is much that we can do! Don't lose hope, just make sure you're voting and informing people. And lets all INVEST in these new technologies. What they need most is money to get going.

[leeroysphitz]

198. How DARE you go and post something positive after th OP went to all the trouble

to start yet another gloom and doom end of the world thread?

Do you think this country was built by people who actually solved problems? HELL NO! It was founded by those who saw the writing on the wall who immediately rolled over and quickly succumbed to adversity without a struggle. It was built by those who made sure everyone else knew how horrible the future was going to be and that there was no point in working for change because there was no chance to escape our grim fate. That spirit, kept alive by folks like the OPer is what made America the country it is today!11!111

(We are out of oil and food and money and the economy is tanking worser than the greatest depression and Rove, who tears up subpoenas like they are traffic tickets is about to declare martial law while our army, which is broken, somehow invades Iran with 973 trillion dollars borrowed from the "Chinese" who have poisoned all of our children with lead coated gum drops and nobody cares because they are all watching American Idol.)

[Subdivisions]

150. Looks like you are right about flour storage. The way I

have it sealed will probably give it a bit longer shelf life. There is so much to do that I didn't really think about how long flour would keep. Luckily, because my preparations budget has allowed me only a "starter kit" of various dry goods. I only have 50 pounds of flour and I doubt I will need it (for the reasons it was stocked) before it goes rancid. I'll wait eight months and if things haven't gotten to the point of needing it, I'll take it out and make lots of bread and give some to family and friends. Fortunately, wheat seed is among the varieties of seed I have bought and stored and I will check into wheat grain and a mill as alternatives to storing pre-processed flour.

As for the peak oil thing being silly because oil won't disappear overnight...while it is true it won't disappear overnight, it will decline in production faster than you think.

And you are right, we should use oil more efficiently and SUVs need to be history or fuel standards for large private passenger vehicles should be stricter.

[slackmaster]

146. Peak Oil will spur rapid development of alternative energy sources

Solar, wind, nuclear, even coal.

:shrug:

[defendandprotect]

173. Or, those who control our natural resources will CONTINUE to stop them . . .

as they have been doing over the past decades ---

Capitalism is a ridiculous King-of-the-Hill System ---

Unregulated capitalism is merely organized crime ---

It is those who control our natural resources who have brought us Global Warming and this
delayed awareness ---

Tens of billions of dollars were spent on lies in r-w propaganda over the past three decades and more . . .

[rdenney]

196. #1 Problem: No one wants wind-power, nuclear, coal or solar facilities in their backyards..

its the old NIMBY come back to haunt us every time.

The other issue is that we simply don't have enough time to build all these facilities
before the stuff hits the fan in regards to the petroleum production and price issue.

Sorry to say but it's major league hurting time for a while, folks. :-(

[slackmaster]

199. I want solar on my roof

NIMBYism will fade when food costs keep going up.

The other issue is that we simply don't have enough time to build all these facilities
before the stuff hits the fan in regards to the petroleum production and price issue.

I don't buy that argument. It's amazing what people can accomplish once they have the will to do it.

[Stuckinthebush]

147. A tad bit over the top

Yes, we will need to find alternatives to oil but the doomsday scenario is unlikely to happen.

[slackmaster]

149. Anything I can use as leverage to get my boss to allow me to telecommute more often is good with me

:D

[Stuckinthebush]

178. Good angle!

:D

[DS1]

167. 100% umemployment!

:woohoo:

[Indenturedebtor]

175. Lol I know right

We'll all just be sitting around in our bunkers and not working :eyes:

People were employed in 10,000 BC. They just weren't working for some asshole with too much money in his pocket ;)

[lutefisk]

195. That's assuming Bush is still the POTUS. . .n/t

[defendandprotect]

172. Continuing to burn fossil fuels is what is deadly for us . . .

[Locrian]

176. scary

Our individual survival, and our common future, depends on our ability to quickly make other arrangements. We can view this as a personal challenge, or we can take the Hemingway out. The choice is ours.

For individuals interested in making other arrangements, it's time to start acquiring myriad requisite skills. It is far too late to save civilization for 300 million Americans, much less the rest of the planet's citizens, but we can take joy in a purpose-filled, intimate life.

**If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally.**

I have a feeling the "survivors" wont be those who have gold, land, seeds, etc. But the ones who are good a grouping together (tribes anyone?). Because like it or not it will be a fight to the death for the last scraps of food, energy, etc out there. And I don't like the odds of 6,500,000,000 to 1.

[Subdivisions]

It's already happening all over the planet. But, alas,

no one wants to admit the underlying cause. Instead they blame everything and anything they can think of except for the one thing that lies at the root of all those reasons and excuses. And that is the lack of access to energy, namely oil, in those places where we're seeing collapse.

I'm not one to go in for NWO and TPTB conspiracies but if "TPTB" do exist, then apparently they want to kill off all the people in the poorest regions by pricing them out of the market for oil. Because that is exactly what's happening. With oil at $120, poorer regions just can't afford it.

[BeHereNow]

225. It's not a conspiracy if it can be documented.

There is plenty of documentation-
That IS the plan and TPTB designed it.
Read Antony Sutton.
BHN

[Ganja Ninja]

182. The more expensive it gets the more viable the other options get.

I realize some of those options are not well thought of, but all we need to do is look at wartime Germany to know that there are options. We will not wind up starving and cold in the dark. To the contrary the end of oil is the beginning of the future and the future is going to be what we make of it.

[rdenney]

197. True but in the meantime, lots of humans will be without power, food and clean water...

thus leading to illness and death for many people before things become stable.

Not a pretty picture at all, no matter how you slice it.

[tjwash]

209. I hate to break this to you...

...but lots of humans currently ARE without power, food and clean water. Tons. Huge sections of the populations of Africa, the ME, India, and rural China just to name a few. Here in the US, we have a vast minority in world population and are the leading petrol consumers.

If we would just stop acting like spoiled brats in this country and demanding the whole world give give give to us and this consumerist "me first fuck the rest of the world" culture that has sprang up since the 60's, things actually would start to change.

[frogcycle]

208. but the oil companies' officers and their families

will be able to eat lots of 20-dollar-bill salads, so they aren't worried

[femrap]

210. Maybe the Mayans are right and we

won't have to worry after 12-21-12. In today's mess, this has become a comforting thought. I wonder if the Earth will shift on its axis on that day. Winter will become summer and summer will become winter.

I remember my Physical Science 101 prof saying in 1972 that the Earth shifts its axis every 26,000 years. And I was completely blown away by that...and I remember thinking, "Wow, and I'll be alive to see this."

Who knows? Only a little over 4 years from now.

[BeHereNow]

224. Sure doesn't look impossible, does it?

The elders all say to prepare.
Across all nations and tribes.

BHN
http://www.taironatrust.org

[femrap]

227. Thx for the link! nt

[BeHereNow]

228. You are welcome! Pass it on!!!!!!!!

We have been warned.
BHN

[frogcycle]

211. the single most important thing humanity can do

is downsize

I heard a blurb on the tv this morning projecting a US population of one Billion by sometime or other.

That is ludicrous. It cannot be sustained. Could not even be approached without massive strife. You think gang wars in overcrowded cities are bad now? Ha! The 6.5 billion humans on the planet today are about 4 billion too many.

If the population does not self-control voluntarily, then mother nature will take care of it. She always does. Oh, sometimes it is a population crash that leads to extinction, but Ma nature really doesn;t care about that. She'll come up with some really nasty bug that wipes out about 2/3 of the population.

[Locrian]

212. population

the single most important thing humanity can do is downsize


That's the turd in the room nobody wants to talk about. But one way or the other, nature will only support the level of population it's capable. Delay it, but it's inevitable.

[Virginia Dare]

217. An earlier thread said 1 billion could be displaced by 2050..

I think you're correct. Humans were meant to be nomadic, we'll eventually get back there, I'm sure.

[gauguin57]

221. It's all the polygamous cult's fault!

It's definitely not mine ... I did not have and will not be having any kids.

[Indenturedebtor]

229. The wife and I are going to have two

We don't want to increase the pop but I don't want to let all the fundy morons make stupid the human norm.

[gauguin57]

230. Well, and since I'm having none, we balance each other out!

Best of luck as you start your family. More little DUers in the world!!!