Party Registration Statistics Don't Matter.

[Zynx]

I'm so sick of seeing people jumping up and down in a happy frenzy over seeing party registration statistics that people who have been following elections for a long time have seen for years and know that they don't matter. I've seen people look at party registration statistics in the South and claim we can win all of those states since we have such a huge party registration advantage there.

Let me give you an example of a state that we lost by 31 points in 2004: OKLAHOMA

http://www.ok.gov/~elections/vr_1106.pdf

Registration:
Democrats- 1,042,560
Republicans- 802,539
Unaffiliated- 222,217
Total- 2,067,316

Over half of the registered voters in Oklahoma are Democrats and yet we have not won the state since 1964. In fact we lost it worse in 2004 than we won any state by outside DC.

Let me repeat, registration statistics don't matter for spit, particularly not in the South. They always lag voting trends, they never lead them. Ever. It's a lot easier for a voter to change their mind than to change their registration.

I don't mean to be the dick in the mashed potatoes about this, but these are plain facts.

[Inchworm]

1. You need turnout stats

among other things.

Simple numbers are rarely simple.

[Zynx]

2. 1.463 Million Oklahomans voted out of 2 million. Bush got 959,000 votes.

That is pretty much all you need.

[gristy]

3. Your comparison of party registration and voting preferences is flawed

You do not mention how time factors into this. What are registration totals in 2008? How do the 2008 totals compare to the 2006 numbers you give us? To what extent have any and all past election results (not just OK) correlated with party registration? What does that tell you as to a change in chances for democrats in November? You give us only 2006 Registration totals (and I didn't know that until I opened the pdf), and you tell us that "lost by 31 points in 2004". You're certainly not going to sway me with an argument that draws on one poorly conveyed datapoint of considerable irrelevance.

[Zynx]

4. I guess because I know the history of Oklahoma voting I didn't feel the need to post it.

My point is that voting does not correlate with party registration at all. Registration totals in 2008 are not released on their website and I rather doubt they are that different from 2006.

Feel free to look up the Oklahoma voting history here: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Democrats have had a huge edge in registration for the last 100 or more years there.