Iran could choke flow of oil to world in case of war – but it would hurt itself by doing so

[Purveyor]

VIENNA, Austria – Iran's potential to shut down nearly 40 percent of the world's oil trade represents a weapon possibly more powerful than its missiles, gunboats or any arms system Tehran claims to possess.

But such a move would cut both ways in any possible military showdown with the United States.

The Islamic Republic's overwhelming dependence on revenue from its crude exports means it could end up suffering a sharp and self-inflicted blow if it turns off the spigots and blocks Persian Gulf supply lines.
Oil remains near historic heights. And jittery markets jump at any sign that supplies could grow tighter, spiking at every hint of new tensions over Tehran's nuclear defiance.

But recent increases pale compared with the once-unthinkable levels that could be reached – experts speak of up to $200 a barrel – if Washington and Tehran move toward open conflict.

That scenario is kept alive by White House insistence that all options remain on the table to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear arms, despite indications from Pentagon leaders that there is no fast-track planning for another Middle East war. Iran insists its nuclear program is only for energy purposes.

---EOE---

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20071201-1158-iran-theoilweapon.html

[MADem]

1. Cutting off nose, spiting face. It would kill Iran--they already import half their gasoline

because they don't have refining capacity. They have gas RATIONING there.

[bahrbearian]

2. "Please Bomb us ,we promise not to retaliate"

[Cha]

4. Or..Please don't bomb us

but if your citizens can't keep the fuckers in congress and that fucktard monkey from striking us with the big bombs like ya did Iraq then we for sure won't stop our oil from flowing..just so ya'll can have access while we suffer untold horror. We bend like that.

[bahrbearian]

5. It seems people think that Iran would be foolish if attacked to stop

the shipping of Oil because it would bring economic hardship to themselfs. Please.

[Cha]

6. And then it turns out they

didn't have nukes after all..ooooops..fucking ooooooooops.

[Ytzak]

3. We bomb the crap out of them, but that doesn't hurt Iran or their economy..

In retaliation they cut off the flow of oil. That hurts Iran?

There is something deeply wrong about that logic.

[Tejas]

7. Iran would have the whole ME against them.

Iran can shut down their pipeline to Turkey, but to mess with the Straights of Hormuz would be sheer stupidity. OPEC would not stand for it.

[Purveyor]

12. Or with them if the US initiates one of its "pre-emptive strikes'. Iran is not Iraq... eom

[Tejas]

13. so, OPEC would applaud Iran's closing of the Straits of Hormuz?

OPEC might stand with Iran, but not to the point of giving control of the Straits to them.

Keep in mind...besides OPEC, there are many others besides the US that depend on the Straits remaining open.

That said, I think Rudaki's threats toward Europe are going to come back to bite him.

[Pavulon]

8. A "Praying Mantis"

thinks otherwise. Iran has no reason to start a war, and neither do we. They have plenty to loose.

[KG]

9. and 10 dollar a gallon gas wouldn't affact our economy at all.

i'm thinking that iran holds the aces in this game.

[Strelnikov_]

10. Don't know why they think Iran will target ships in the Strait

when a few Scuds landing in the fixed gulf export facilities would accomplish the same, and will be a lot easier to hit.

This is why even a 'limited' attack on the 'nuclear' sites is so dangerous. Like all military action, things can spiral out of control quickly, resulting in a 'use it or lose it' miscalculation. Iran's fragmented command and control would be particularly unpredictable (essentially two separate military structures).

(edit to add) The 'peace' conference this week also did not help matters much since it was intended to isolate Iran, adding to Sunni v. Shia Arab v. Persian tensions.


++++++++++++++

All data 2005.

- The Persian Gulf represents nearly 50% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The vast majority of this resource passes through 8 to 10 major facilities (one facility in KSA alone processes 60% of its petroleum, you know, starts with a ‘A’).

- If Iran is attacked in such a way as to threaten the continuity of the regime, they will use their substantial missile inventory in taking out these facilities (I do not believe they will target Israel, as it would have no strategic purpose, and is out of range, whereas targeting the gulf energy infrastructure would strike a mortal blow against the attacking western economies, in particular the US, as I discuss below).

- The US imports ~ 12.4 Mbbl/dy (60% of total consumption) of petroleum which represents around 29% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The next largest petroleum importers (Japan 5.2, China 3.1, Germany 2.4, South Korea 2.2, France 1.9) all have substantial dollar reserves and are significant exporters of finished goods. Basically, we will be outbid on much of what remains of the worlds petroleum export market post attack, as these countries use their export capacity in finished goods to purchase petroleum from Russia, Nigeria, Norway, and Venezuela.

- In the weeks following destruction of the Persian Gulf oil export market, the US will probably see 2/3rds of its imports sold to higher bidders or embargoed, leaving us with about 60% of the petroleum supply we had pre-attack.

- Approx. 42% of US petroleum is used for personal transport, 22% for commercial transport (trucks that carry food to the stores, etc.). I will leave it to the reader as to the impact a nearly overnight loss of 40% of the US petroleum supply will have to the economy (not to mention the impact due to the collapse of the petrodollar system).

- Russia, India and China will take a pass. Russia stands to make a fortune. And if all the gulf petroleum goes off line, they become the worlds sole energy superpower. China and India will dig in (as they consume much less petroleum), weather the storm, and emerge in a position to snap up all those production contracts that will no longer go to US multinationals for rebuilding the gulf.

- In conclusion, Iran is not toothless. We can physically destroy the country of Iran. There is a good chance they can destroy our economy and begin the process of petrocollapse, ultimately leading to the destruction of a greatly weakened US in a few decades.

So, who wins?

He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing - Muah'dib

++++++++++++++=

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0

=====

Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market
18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region

Top World Oil Net Importers, 2005

United States 12.4
Japan 5.2
China 3.1
Germany 2.4
South Korea 2.2
France 1.9
India 1.7
Italy 1.6
Spain 1.6
Taiwan 1.0


Top World Oil Consumers, 2005 (Domestic production in parans.)

United States 20.7 (8.3 - 40%)
China 6.9 (3.8 - 55%)
Japan 5.4 (0.2 - 4%)
Russia 2.8
Germany 2.6
India 2.6
Canada 2.3
Brazil 2.2
Korea, South 2.2
Mexico 2.1
France 2.0
Saudi Arabia 2.0

[Strelnikov_]

11. The Targets

Pretty much all of the Gulf petroleum export facilities outside of Iraq/Iran. The Iran/Iraq facilities would probably already be destroyed by the time Iran pulls the 'nuclear' option.

Ras Tanura represents about half of gulf exports. Abqaiq is a compact site through which most of KSA production flows.

Don't know what all of the UAE sites are, but I suspect a couple are LNG. Oman's LNG facility is far enough down the coast to probably be out of attack range.


Dona (Kuwait)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&ll=29.364822,47.804432&spn=0.106818,0.15295&t=k&z=13&om=1

Mina Al Ahmadi (Kuwait)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&ll=29.049192,48.148699&spn=0.053574,0.076475&t=k&z=14&om=1

Khiran (Kuwait)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=28.692169,48.373661&spn=0.053758,0.076475&z=14

Ras Ali Khafji (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=28.404613,48.531933&spn=0.053905,0.076475&z=14

Al Jubayl (Ras Tanura Complex) (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=27.079303,49.645329&spn=0.10913,0.15295&z=13

Najmah_1 (Ras Tanura Complex) (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=26.800171,50.022812&spn=0.109401,0.15295&z=13

Najmah_2 (Ras Tanura Complex) (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=kuwait&ie=UTF8&t=k&om=1&ll=26.659579,50.128212&spn=0.109536,0.15295&z=13

Abqaiq (KSA)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=abqaiq&sll=25.626669,49.004517&sspn=3.535873,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.935045,49.68039&spn=0.027556,0.038238&t=k&z=15&om=1

Ras Laffan (Qatar)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.915207,51.588879&spn=0.055121,0.076475&t=k&z=14&om=1

Ruwais (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&om=1&ll=24.123882,52.726822&spn=0.112018,0.15295&t=k&z=13&iwloc=addr

Mina Jabal Ali (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.008617,55.059099&spn=0.055537,0.076475&t=k&z=14&om=1

Khawr Fakken (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.310123,56.370077&spn=0.0277,0.038238&t=k&z=15&om=1

Al Qurayyah (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=25.198922,56.357932&spn=0.027726,0.038238&t=k&z=15&om=1

Al Liwa (UAE)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=Al+Mubarraz&sll=24.691943,54.497681&sspn=3.563055,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=24.483634,56.623106&spn=0.055851,0.076475&t=k&z=14&om=1

Mina al Fahl (Oman)
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&time=&date=&ttype=&q=abqaiq&sll=25.626669,49.004517&sspn=3.535873,4.894409&ie=UTF8&ll=23.602728,58.416388&spn=0.014039,0.019119&t=k&z=16&om=1

[Tejas]

15. ships and installations?

Maybe I'm missing something, I can't see Iran going all out to indiscriminately destroy ships in the Gulf much less turning every refinery and terminal within 1,000 miles into parking lots.

Closing the Straits, maybe.

[Strelnikov_]

21. I did say "Iran is attacked in such a way as to threaten the continuity of the regime"

You can't envision a nation's rulers, under attack, that come to the conclusion the attacker is out to overthrow their regime, striking at the attackers critical infrastructure? Their 'ball bearing' plants, so to speak. Particularly in the context of the current insane Republican foreign policy of pitting Shia Persian against Sunni Arab states?

You can't envision a limited, 'safe', air strike against supposed nuclear sites spinning out of control in the extremely high state of tension that now exists due to the Republicans incompetent, treasonous, foreign policy? The danger of calibrating an attack to minimize the chance of escalation when the country being attacked has Iran's fractured command and control?


So be it.

[Tejas]

22. don't get me wrong, I agree

that Iran would go nuts, just not that they would go off the deep end and bulldoze everything they could get their hands on.

[sniffa]

14. if they're at war, i don't expect to continue output

since they should be defending themselves.

i doubt their president would ask for his citizens to go shopping at a time of war either.

[Leopolds Ghost]

16. Wait, so we would allow Iran to continue exporting oil thru the Gulf??

[Leopolds Ghost]

17. What incentive would they have not to blockade our oil if we are blockading their oil??

[Tejas]

19. replace "our" with "the world's"

The US is not the only entity to recieve oil from that region of the world. Therein is the incentive to not block the straits.

[Leopolds Ghost]

20. You missed my point. Either we intend to allow Iran to continue selling THEIR oil while we bomb them

Or we intend to sieze their oil fields to "ensure the continued supply
of oil" while we bomb them. As Petraeus said.

Which is it?

Are you saying we don't plan on using the oil weapon ourselves?

We will continue allow Iranian tankers bound for China to pass the straits
while we are bombing the coast?

And make sure the money from the proceeds gets across the front line into
Iranian hands?

To ensure that Iran has an incentive not to attack the Straits from their
mountain redoubts along the coast?

How will it hurt Iran to shut down all oil production if we have siezed
90% of Iran's access to oil at the start of an Iran war, as Petraeus said?

[Tejas]

23. your logistics imply that it would be business as usual...

after the first bomb falls. ie: "while we bomb them"

I seriously doubt it :)

Assuming that the US automatically has the final say on allowing anything after that is pretty iffy, in that Iran has already stated that if attacked they will be the ones causing havoc in the straits (and elsewhere).

Petraeus (and the rest of us) would do well not to assume what Iran will/won't do, much less bet the farm on what control the US would have over shipping lanes while the bombs are falling.

[Leopolds Ghost]

18. Petraeus, in confirmation hearing: "We will act to ensure continued Iran oil exports in case of war"

I.e. to force them to continue pumping our oil out from under their sand.

I.e. we would invade Khuzestan and annex it to Iraq, like Saddam attempted
to do on our say-so after the overthrow of the Shah.

Thus Removing all incentive for Iran NOT to block the Straits.

We want Khuzestan because it is "Arab" and has 90% of Iran's oil, all of
which was owned by the British and Americans since COLONIAL days in the
1800s... until the Islamic revolution.