The real reason the violence is down, and it's not the "surge."

[ProSense]

Iraq's numbers don't add up, U.S. says

American commanders rely increasingly on data compiled by the nation's forces, but fear they aren't fully reliable.

By Peter Spiegel, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
7:32 AM PST, November 30, 2007

BAGHDAD -- As U.S. forces begin to scale back in Iraq, the military is becoming increasingly reliant on Iraqi forces to report a wide array of crucial statistics, from the number of attacks on the local infrastructure to how many Iraqi civilians have been killed or wounded.

And just as Iraqi forces have had a mixed record in fighting insurgents, they have been spotty at providing data from the regions where they have taken command.

Iraqi officials have been reporting far higher civilian death totals than those reported by U.S. forces, and aides to American commanders now acknowledge that the U.S. military probably had been undercounting such casualties.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOR THE RECORD:
This article incorrectly said that Iraqi forces report approximately 70 incidents in their areas of responsibility every month, as opposed to 200 for U.S. troops. The figures were for daily reports, not monthly. In addition, a temporary shutdown of Iraqi communications in October led to a sharp drop-off in reporting but not a complete end to such information, as the story reported, since U.S. officials were able to get some reporting through other means, such as faxes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

<...>

Also troubling to the United States is the frequent failure of Iraqi forces to report data on incidents occurring in the regions where they take the lead in providing security. In sectors handed over to Iraqi army and police forces, U.S. planners have seen a sharp decrease in overall data, severely hampering their ability to determine whether their military plan is succeeding.

The questionable nature of the Iraqi-compiled data, which is expected to become even more problematic as U.S. forces shrink back to pre-buildup levels over the next six months, has placed American commanders in an awkward position.

<...>

Similarly, in October, the Iraqi government lashed out at the U.S. military after clashes in Sadr City. Iraqi officials said several civilians were killed, but U.S. forces called the dead "criminals."

Independent monitoring groups have accused the United States of playing down civilian death counts to make the troop buildup look more successful. But with no official Iraqi system in place to tally civilian death figures, there remains little agreement on the actual number. Estimates have ranged from the tens of thousands to 1.2 million dead.

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We don't know what is going on in Iraq. Take a look at this independent Iraqi news site

Bush is still trying to pull the wool over Americans' eyes on Iraq. Can he succeed?

Grim View of Iraq Dangers in Survey of Journalists

[TwilightGardener]

1. Interesting. I think our lowered troop deaths go hand in hand with

Iraqis doing some of the heavy lifting, security-wise, which is good--but if they're not keeping accurate statistics, then who knows what the hell is really going on? I have my suspicions that Iraqi forces are not totally on the up-and-up in terms of ethics and proper protocol, anyway. They could kill whomever they want to and report whatever they want about it--or not report it at all.

[bdamomma]

2. this site is very good thanks to Javaman to bring this into

our focus

http://warnewstoday.blogspot.com/index.html

[Atman]

3. You mean, BushCo is LYING?????!

I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you!

.

[Flabbergasted]

4. The surge may well have reduced violence in Iraq....

There are likely other factors as well including Maliki's visits to neighbors over the summer to talk about ways to work to stabilize Iraq which likely includes Iran scaling back its logistical and/or military support of opposition groups.

However its almost inevitable for violence to get worse. Is the surge "working"? It will not accomplish Bush's goal of a pro-American, democratic government in Iraq.

I also wonder if troops have moved away from doing the work in the areas that cause likely casualties?

[ProSense]

6. Sending more troops to Iraq only to pull back U.S. troops

in favor of airstrikes is flim-flam, not success. Then there is the abysmal reconstruction effort.

[madrchsod]

5. more airstrikes instead of ground patrols

according to some reports ground patrol do not patrol. relying on what is called the iraqi army is a joke. they are waiting for us to leave to finish what`s left.

[Contrary1]

7. My thoughts:

Chucklenuts has stated over and over that to have a deadline for troop withdrawal would serve as a message that the insurgents can just wait for us to leave.

So, what better way to get the US out of there? Wait, without the deadline. Fewer attacks make it appear that the escalation is working. Escalation having worked means a draw down of troops before the election.

More troops coming home in '08 is a win-win for the Repugs. It gives them a better chance of winning the election. There are fewer troops in Iraq, which will be the green light for the bad guys to take to the streets again. At that point, it won't matter who is sitting in the Oval Office.

Bush and Co. are assured that their war is the gift that keeps on giving.

[ProSense]

8. Except they will draw down, but not enough

not even to pre-surge levels. Then when the violence flairs up again, the Dems are left with the mess.

The time to get out is now, even if the lull is more illusion than reality, and while the different factions are planning their next move. The push to get out should have been the Dems' strategy since the debate about escalation began a year ago.

[ProSense]

9. U.S. to at-risk Iraqis: Thanks for helping us destroy your country and life, but you're on your own

No fast track for at-risk Iraqi refugees

By MATTHEW LEE, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Thousands of Iraqis whose support for the U.S. war effort in Iraq has put them and their families in grave danger at home are being excluded from a new fast-track system aimed at speeding up refugee resettlement in the United States for American allies, officials said Thursday.

The Bush administration within the next month will begin accepting refugee applications directly from the about 100 Iraqi employees of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and their relatives, letting them bypass an often-lengthy U.N. referral process in third countries where they must travel at great expense, they said.

But possibly tens of thousands more at-risk Iraqis — those who worked for private contractors, aid agencies or media outlets and their relatives — won't be eligible due to objections from the Homeland Security Department, which fears that terrorists might use it to slip into the country, the officials said.

Homeland Security is effectively blocking contract employees, like drivers, translators, technicians, from benefiting from the initiative by insisting they provide official U.S. references and sponsors before applying for resettlement, a more stringent standard than for direct hires and even those in the U.N. system, according to the officials.

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This really begs the question: at risk of what?

[ProSense]

10. Kick! n/t

[Demeter]

11. No, It's Not the Surge--It's the Genocide

add another war crime to the list, ICC!

[sniffa]

12. and here i thought it was the ethnic cleansing

:kick:

[ProSense]

13. Death toll for Iraqis falls

The number of Iraqis killed last month fell to 718, an Associated Press tally showed

Iraq Body Count: 1,100

How many others were killed?

[ProSense]

14. 20 Die as Gunmen Descend on Village

20 Die as Gunmen Descend on Village

Separately, Turks Report Attack on Kurds

By Sudarsan Raghavan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 2, 2007; Page A22

BAGHDAD, Dec. 1 -- Dozens of gunmen overran a Shiite village north of Baghdad on Saturday, killing at least 20 people, police said, the latest in a recent spike in attacks in Diyala province, where the U.S. military is rotating some troops out and moving others in.

Meanwhile, the Turkish military reported that it had attacked as many as 60 Kurdish guerrillas inside Iraq, saying that it inflicted "significant losses." And in Baghdad, top Sunni lawmakers staged a walkout of Saturday's parliamentary session to protest the government's treatment of their leader, Adnan al-Dulaimi, who said he had been placed under house arrest Friday. U.S. and Iraqi authorities raided Dulaimi's office compound Thursday and Friday, detaining dozens of employees and his son, and alleging that one of Dulaimi's guards held the keys to a vehicle rigged with explosives discovered nearby.

All three developments underscored the instability that persists in Iraq even as violence has decreased.

The assault on Duwaili village, 45 miles north of Baghdad, began at 6.30 a.m. with a barrage of mortar shells, police said. Gangs of suspected members of the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq entered the village, opening fire on civilians and torching homes, said Maj. Gen. Abdul Karim al-Rubaiee, a police commander in Diyala province. The village, he said, was also attacked several months ago.

more

Twenty bodies found in mass grave in Iraq