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greenman3610 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:20 PM
Original message
Fascinating update on Arctic sea ice
If you have the time:
http://climateprogress.org/2007/11/27/arctic-sea-ice-gr...

Do you want the latest data some not yet published and the best post-IPCC scientific predictions for the stunning collapse of Arctic ice and unexpected shrinking of the Greenland (and Antarctic) ice sheets? Then you should definitely watch (UPDATE: this C-SPAN video) of yesterdays American Meteorological Society seminar (see note on link below).


The seminar is by three of the worlds top cryosphere experts: Dr. Mark Serreze (NOAA), Scott Luthcke (NASA), and Dr. Konrad Steffen (CIRES) full bios and program summary available here. I will post their presentations when AMS puts them online (which will be here).

I have spent a great deal of time studying the ice and sea level rise issue (see links below) and still found the presentations informative and startling. It is very safe to say the Arctic Sea will be essentially ice free by 2030, and Id personally bet on 2020 any takers?

The most interesting presentation to me was the last one, by Konrad Steffen, who made a convincing case that the IPCC is underestimating the rate of sea level rise this century significantly. He expects one meter or more by 2100. The modelers are busy at work trying to account for ice dynamics in ice sheet collapse but it may take 4 or 5 years for them to do that. When they are finished, sea level rise estimates for this century are likely to double or triple.
--

Note: Just the sheer joy of watching ass-kicking intellect in action
is worth it.
this vid and more at
http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/ESSSarchiveclimatech...
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. Fascinating? I think you meant to say horrifying. n/t
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dysfunctional press Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. i find it more fascinating than horrifying- how about exhilarating?
it's GOING to happen, we might as well watch nature's response to our chosen style of existence, and appreciate it for the spectacle it will become.
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greenman3610 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #1
20. yeah, that too.
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Zywiec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
2. Has this ever happened before in the history of the earth? n/t
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. About 50 Million years ago it got warm enough that the methane gas under the Ocean
and at the polls was released causing the Earth to warm dramatically and killing off most of the Earths life. There were swamps and Alligator's at the North Poll then.
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Zywiec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Are you saying that the earth hasn't changed this much for 50 million years?
interesting...
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. It's been through numerous Ice Ages in the past few Million years
Edited on Wed Nov-28-07 10:43 PM by Quixote1818
but it rarely gets this warm. The earth is supposed to be cooling right now as we are going through an orbit cycle that will take us slightly further away from the sun.

I am no expert but I did watch a great show about this on the History Channel.

On Edit: We were coming out of the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago. At that time there were American Lions, Camels, Mammoths, Saber Tooth Cats and Giant Sloths right here in North America. Central Park was covered by a glacier.
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Zywiec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:46 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. So do you believe all the ice-ages that have happened before
will never happen again?
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. I think once Miami and Beijing are under water then people will say "HOLY SHIT"
Edited on Wed Nov-28-07 11:08 PM by Quixote1818
and mankind will start manufacturing all kinds of ways to capture CO2 and create clean fuels and bring green house gases back to where they should be. Hopefully that would be enough of a wake up call that Humans will start understanding the importance of living in harmony with nature and we would get our shit together for a long, long time. There is that old saying about necessity if the mother of invention.

Then again, if the methane gas is released from under the oceans then it might end up being too late and again, life would have to retreat to the polls to survive. Then it might take a million years for the earth to correct it's self and get back to normal but at that point the Ice Ages would return with the regular cycles related to how we rotate around the sun.


On Edit: If Mankind advances enough and saves (funny to use the word "saves" and mankind in the same sentence) the earth from complete destruction from green house gases we may be able to literally control the earth's temperature and perhaps even its climate in some instances. There are ways to capture CO2 (though it would take hundreds of thousands of machines to do it effectively) to cool the earth down, or if it started going back into an Ice Age we already know how to warm the earth by adding CO2. Mankind will only do these things if we know we have to do them to survive. Renewable, clean energy like solar takes the profit away from the big corporations and as long as they have the bucks and people are not too freaked out then things will get worse. It will take sea level moving into the first floor of the fancy resorts on Miami beach to get peoples attention.
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muriel_volestrangler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:53 AM
Response to Reply #10
18. With Beijing at an elevation of 143 feet
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing ) I think people will be saying "glubbb, glubbb, glubbb" rather than 'holy shit'. Before then, we'd say goodbye to New York, Tokyo, London, Calcutta, Chennai, Mumbai, Lagos, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, etc.
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 07:09 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. I should have looked that up. Shanghai must be the city I was thinking of. nt
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greenman3610 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:12 PM
Response to Reply #9
19. the next "natural" one is not due for 10-20 thousand years.
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:32 PM
Response to Original message
4. I think the Northern Hemisphere is going to be hit the worst because
once all the ice melts at the North Poll then that ocean will no longer be reflecting sunlight back into space. Of course that will cause Greenland to then start really melting fast!!!
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BeHereNow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
6. I'm guessing, with the acceleration always surprising the experts, 2015.
If not before.

BHN
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WheelWalker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. I'll back that bet. I'm with you. To the winner goes a popsicle!
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BeHereNow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. My favorite flavor is orange, please. n/t
Merci!
BHN
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WheelWalker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 12:11 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. Mine is Greenland Grape.....I need my flavinoids! Perhaps we'll
Edited on Thu Nov-29-07 12:11 AM by The Village Idiot
see each other on that day. Blessings.
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pansypoo53219 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #6
15. i was gonna say 2015 too
i visited the north pole live cams the past few years. this was the first year i saw WATER. OPEN SEA. then i think the camera sank.
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sam sarrha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:15 PM
Response to Original message
11. and then the Helene Thermal-cline will stop, and archaeological evidence shows that an ice age can s...
within 5 years of that tragic event, it apparently takes about 800 years to even begin start up again, couple thousand to get going.. it is a heat pump to moderate the extreme temperatures of the equator and the poles
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BeHereNow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Think the global elites are building their biosphere in Paraguay over the water?
Calling all screen writers...

BHN
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sam sarrha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 06:42 AM
Response to Reply #13
17. here is my new movie title..'there are too many lose nukes, they cant hide'
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 07:11 PM
Response to Original message
22. Thanks for this
I'll watch it at home this evening.
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