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Say What! Zogby Poll - EACH Dem leader's numbers down since May. Not just HRC! Scoop

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 06:52 PM
Original message
Say What! Zogby Poll - EACH Dem leader's numbers down since May. Not just HRC! Scoop
Edited on Wed Nov-28-07 06:53 PM by autorank
When the Nov. 26 Zogby Poll came out and everyone jumped on Hillary's numbers, I decided to take a closer look. What it showed made Hillary's numbers pale in significance. EACH of the three leaders in the primary race Clinton, Obama, and Edwards showed significant erosion comparing the May and Nov. 2007 polling numbers.If one went up and two down, that might make sense. But all went down. There's a bit of controversy over Zogby's Nov 26 release but as the man himself pointed out, Clinton's campaign made more requests to Zogby for polling information than any other. The public wants us out of Iraq, they want real issues discussed, and this poll is an important turning point for those who want real Democratic solutions, e.g., FDR, as opposed to "moving to the center."

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0711/S00436.htm

Thursday, 29 November 2007, 10:52 am
Opinion: Michael Collins

Zogby - Top 3 Dems All Lost Ground to Thompson
Say What!


By Michael Collins
Scoop Independent News


Washington, D.C.John Zogby is one of the most accurate pollsters in the history of modern politics. However, his headline below hides the real meaning of his poll comparing the 'big three" Democratic contenders in match ups against their Republican counterparts. The results are from May 17, July 14, and Nov. 26, 2007.
"Zogby Poll: Obama, Edwards Strong but Clinton Slips Against GOPers
General election match-ups show the New York Senator would lose against every top Republican (11/26/2007)"

Hillary losing to all the Republicans is not the big news.


The big news is that in almost every match up, all three leading Democrats are down from their May 17 levels. They were polled against four Republicans candidates for a total of 12 match ups. In 10 of the 12, the Democrats lost ground from May to November. Edwards showed the only improvements and those were only by just 1% against the struggling McCain and Giuliani tarnished by his strange associates.

Tommy Thompson improved against all three Democrats from the May to the late November polls. But wait, didn't he drop out of the Republican race? Correct. The Aug. 12, 2007 drop out improved his net position significantly against the leading Democrats. Obama's net victory margin over Thompson dropped 10% from May to November and Edwards by 5%. Clinton's net margin against the former Wisconsin governor dropped 11% from May to November and she lost to Thompson in the latest poll! What's that about?

Many now choose a little known Republican primary dropout over the leading opposition candidates when that opposition fails to oppose much of anything.

Snip

Democratic candidate in blue


More at: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0711/S00436.htm



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Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 06:55 PM
Response to Original message
1. I thought the bogusness of the Zogby poll was the big news.
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joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Amen! n/t
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:00 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Well, that's the news. Even the partisans were laughing about this piece of shit poll on tee vee
this AM.

They were essentially saying that it was junk, and that Zogby was looking like an ass due to the idiotic methodology.

He probably shouldn't continue to pull this crap--makes him look like he's jumped the shark.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. Always nice to see you Perry. Nope, the poll is just fine. Ask HRC's capmaign
...before Nov. 26th when they were the most active subscribers to the Zogby polls. I guess a little bad news soured the acquisitions.

But this IS NOT about Hillary. It's about three candidates who don't say squat about what the American people really want - OUT OF IRAQ, health insurance - good and asffordable, a plan to save the planet...that sort of thing.

The "move to the center" crowd is wrong. It's time to ask:

"What would FDR say?"

Seven or 8 snips like this

Zogby Defends Poll Against Clinton
truthdig.com
Found 4 hours ago
Zogby International has issued a statement in defense of its poll showing Hillary Clinton, unlike Barack Obama and John Edwards, losing to any of the top five Republican candidates. Clinton's chief political strategist dismissed the survey as "meaningless," and Zogby shot back, noting that "no other campaign has made as many requests for Zogby polling data over the years than Penn has made on behalf of Clinton."
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Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:51 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. "Media Lavishes Attention On Bogus Internet Poll Showing Hillary Losing To Repubs"
Edited on Wed Nov-28-07 07:51 PM by Perry Logan
"Media Lavishes Attention On Bogus Internet Poll Showing Hillary Losing To Repubs -- And Ignores Reputable Poll Finding Opposite"

Yesterday two polling firms -- Zogby and Gallup -- released surveys of the presidential race that offered strikingly different conclusions. The Zogby poll found that Hillary is trailing five leading GOP candidates in general election matchups. The Gallup Poll, by contrast, found that Hillary, and to a lesser degree Obama, has a slight to sizable lead over the top GOP contenders.

A couple of other things that distinguish these two polls: The Zogby one is an online poll, a notoriously unreliable method, while the Gallup one is a telephone poll. And, as Charles Franklin of Pollster.com observed yesterday, the Zogby poll is completely out of sync with multiple other national polls finding Hillary with a lead over the GOP candidates. The Zogby poll actually found that Mike Huckabee is leading Hillary in a national matchup. The Gallup findings were in line with most other surveys.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/horsesmouth/2007/11/me...
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. It's not about Hillary - it's about an across the board drop since May for ALL three top Dems
Why would that be? The MSM is not calling it the way I am. They're taking shots at Hillary, that's for sure. But I'm not. I'm pointing out that this is important information that will allow Democrats to reconsider "move to the center" nonsense before it's too late.

MSM isn't the issue What is? Losing ground to Tommy Thompson (the "dead man walking" of the Republican primary) - every single one of them. MSM mention that...nope.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #6
17. Funny you should mention FDR - I was just thinking
Last week or so that if Hillary wanted to dispell a grat deal of the criticism aimed her way, she ought to look to Eleanor Rooseveldt. Then maybe cop a bit of Eleanor's attitude. I believe HRC had indeed said how much she admired the woman back when she was the First Lady as wife to Bill.

And it is always a cute trick when people hire someone (in this case Zogby) to work for them because the person is the best in the business, but then when Zogby's research cannot portray the employing politician or corporattion to appear better than they are (without lying) then that
person gets smeared.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 09:59 PM
Response to Reply #17
22. Politics is a rough trade...
How is it that it's 2007 and we're far less visionary as a society than we were at the start of the
Great Depression?
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tjwash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:00 PM
Response to Original message
3. Gallup says the exact oppsosite
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. Gallups "mission from God" - according to the President. Zogby online 2004-2006 very accurate
Edited on Wed Nov-28-07 07:36 PM by autorank
I've always had problems with Gallups "polling science" since I heard their chief executive make that statement a couple of years ago. That's not a disqualification of their poll but they are Republican friendly.

Here's video of Penn saying that this was Zogby's first online poll and then Zogby explaining his poll.
http://tinyurl.com/2fnq5u Apologies in advance for the host ;)

ON edit: Methodology of online polls. http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1064

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Bitwit1234 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:05 PM
Response to Original message
5. Zogby has always been different it favors republicans AND
by the time the election comes around the republicans will be up on the democrats by 20 points or more...bet.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. It's really a service for Democrats - make the message REAL...dump this "center" nonsense
"Move the the center" means leave the highly lucrative war going, keep the financial mess going without a real hard core solution, etc.

People want real solutions with passion, not a hedge on withdrawing troops from Iraq by 2013.

Imagine what would happen if the 1,100,000 dead Iraqi civilians due to the war ever hit the airwaves.

If Edwards steps up then there's a chance. If now, well, anybody hear from Gore? ;)
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
7. It seems to me that some polls are being manipulated
to push somebody's specific agenda. It's difficult to have much faith in these polls anymore.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. I agree. The reason I like this one is that it's an outlier.
Edited on Wed Nov-28-07 07:35 PM by autorank
Here's Zogby explaining the interactive polling online and the results.

Does this sound familiar (i.e., 2004)
http://tinyurl.com/26d9at

Penn, the main critic of the current Zogby Poll, did this work for right winger Berlusconi in his recent loss:

2006 Italian elections

On January 2006, during the 2006 Italian elections, a survey was commissioned to PSB by House of Freedoms' leader Silvio Berlusconi, who claimed the Italian surveys to be fixed in favour of the centre-left opposition. The survey, then announced on late February, is as of today the only one which showed Berlusconi ahead of opposition leader Romano Prodi, whereas all other Italian surveys have shown at least a 4% lead in favour of the centre-left.

Similarly, in Venezuela, Penn polls looked very good for the Chavez opponents while international observers said no way and had different results (while the Bush folks were thinking 'coup d'etat in
Venezuela):

http://tinyurl.com/2hc9ys

"Election officials banned publication or broadcast of any exit polls during the historic vote on whether to oust Chavez, a populist who has sought to help the poor and is reviled by the wealthy, who accuse him of stoking class divisions.

But results of the Penn, Schoen & Berland survey were sent out by fax and e-mail to media outlets and opposition offices more than four hours before polls closed. It predicted just the opposite of what happened, saying 59 percent had voted in favor of recalling Chavez.?"

Snip

Critics of the exit poll have questioned how it was conducted because officials have said Penn, Schoen & Berland worked with a U.S.-funded Venezuela group that the Chavez government considers hostile.

Penn, Schoen & Berland had members of Sumate, a Venezuelan group that helped organize the recall initiative, do the fieldwork for the poll, election observers said."

Someday we'll get a blow by blow on all of this. In the mean time, it's worth sorting through the chaff to find a few useful kernels (if I've got my ag terms right, it's been a while ;)
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Me. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:47 PM
Response to Original message
11. So What's The Story Morning Glory
Meaning, what do you think is the bottom line, what;s going on?
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:54 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. "Move to the center" is a big loser..."center" of what, failed policies.
The people want real solutions. Obviously the general public is much smarter than everyone in the White House and most in Congress who dally on ending this war...they want it over. I'll bet they're way ahead on recognizing environmental threats, in fact they are and they're willing change and sacrifice, and they're way ahead on public integrity and fiscal responsibility.

But what do they get, "inside baseball" coverage and campaigns. We'd like our kids to be able to breathe and, in some areas, be born with out a 15% assurance of asthma; we'd like to stop the biggest TRANSFER of wealth in the history of civilization (at least since the Venetians sacked the Byzantines).

Time to get REAL and mean it.

That's how I see it. This poll followed Gallup. There's a point where people just say,
"Screw it, stop lying to me." We're there.

(You promised never to reveal the nick name ;)
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Me. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. Good Answer
Even better than that
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Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
13. "Wow. This'll really depress everyone back at DU! I'll get right over there and post it!"
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. This will take care of that moodiness...natural, organic & legal
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 08:55 PM
Response to Original message
18. It seems they will not quit fucking around until they loose it all.
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 09:04 PM
Response to Original message
19. I don't trust pollsters. Zogsby's spokeman Fritz Wenzel, is the disgraced former
Edited on Wed Nov-28-07 09:12 PM by mod mom
Republican operative who worked for the Toledo Blade and withheld the Tom Noe Coingate (read: Republican) scandal story from breaking before the 2004.

from Salon:

Saving Ohio
Did a reporter with GOP ties suppress a story that could have cost Bush the White House?

By Bill Frogameni

Oct 6, 2005 | In April 2005, the Blade newspaper of Toledo, Ohio, began publishing a remarkable series of articles about a well-connected Republican donor, Tom Noe, chair of the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign for Lucas County, which encompasses Toledo. The Blade, which had won a Pulitzer Prize for reporting in 2004, discovered that Noe, a Toledo coin dealer, was investing $50 million for the state through the novel practice of coin speculation: buying and selling rare coins to turn a profit. Noe, the Blade revealed, could not account for $10 million to $13 million in the fund.

The paper also divulged that Noe had been placed under federal investigation for allegedly laundering money -- perhaps state money -- to the Bush campaign. The Blade's initial reports on Noe started a chain reaction of related scandals for Ohio's dominant Republicans. Recently, Gov. Bob Taft pleaded no contest to accepting several gifts from influence peddlers -- including Noe -- without reporting them, as law requires. Noe is currently the subject of 13 investigations.

In November 2004, Lucas County was among the most hotly contested areas in the most hotly contested state. Kerry won the county by 45,000 votes, but George W. Bush went on to win Ohio by less than 120,000 votes, which swung the election for him.

But Bush's reelection may have been made possible by a Blade reporter with close ties to the Republican Party who reportedly knew about Noe's potential campaign violations in early 2004 but suppressed the story.

-snip
http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2005/10/06/ohio...
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:25 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. You know that I agree with you. Zogby ended up not publishing results form my stolen election 2004
question in a 2006 survey. That was a publication issue. On their polling, I think they're excellent. He called 2004 correctly. The Coingate scandal and that guy's seemingly (I'm being tactful here) sitting on the information for months had a big impact on the election in Ohio. I maintain the real guilty parties are the folks at the New York Times who had the BushCo illegal domestic wiretapping story in mid October 2004 and deliberately sat on it. Maybe Fritz should go work for them ;)

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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
20. Considering Congress' miserable performance
It's surprising that the situatoin isn't worse....
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msedano Donating Member (682 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
24. polls like opinions and everyone has one
regardless of the scientific debate, intuitively it figures that people will sour on all the candidates who fail to speak to the heart of the matter.

get us out of iraq, stop killing our kids.
get people working at well-paid jobs that provide meaningful benefits at affordable cost.
for christ's sake, quit sniping at one another with all this negativity. that's the most disgusting element of all this. it's not like we don't have a full ration of shit in our cities and states. not to mention the crap one gets from a spouse and kids, neighbors, holiday shopping fervor, chinese poisons in our toys.

we look to leaders to make a difference. all we see is discord.

voters know we have to eat this shit in large heaping spoonsful. polling results showing declining support for these pigs reflect the honest truth about the electorate; we overwhelmingly would vote for "none of the above" if that choice were presented.

who are the communists running this year? la raza unida party, are they still around?

ok, who is this guy kucinich whom everyone seems to be ignoring?

mvs

http://readraza.com

http://labloga.blogspot.com
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 02:35 AM
Response to Reply #24
26. "the honest truth about the electorate"


La Raza Unida, Kucinich, hey, How about Eugene V. Debs...

What Can We Do
for Working People?
by Eugene V. Debs


Unsigned article attributed to Debs, published in Locomotive Firemens Magazine http://tinyurl.com/39mmjq
(Terre Haute, IN), v. 14, no. 4 (A pril 1890), pp. 291-293.


In one form or another certain persons are continually asking, What can we do, or, What can be done for working people? Why should such a question be asked at all in the United States? What gives rise to it? Are there circumstances and conditions warranting such an interrogatory? Who propounds it?

Philanthropists of a certain type ask, What can be done for working people? and recommend soup houses, free baths, and more stringent laws against idleness and tramping, together with improved machinery in penitentiaries.

Another class devote time and investigation to diet, to show if wages decline that a man can live on ten cents a day and keep his revolting soul within his wretched body.

Another class, in answering the question, What can we do for the working people? reply by saying, We will organize an Insurance Bureau which shall insure workingmen against accident, sickness, and death. We will supply them with medicine, doctors, and hospitals, taking so much from their wages to maintain the Bureau, and then, by compelling them to sign a contract which virtually reduces them to chattels, and makes them a part of our machinery, we will permit them to work for such pay as we choose to determine.

Another class answer the question, What can we do for working people? by telling them that unless they consent to abandon their labor organizations, absolve themselves from all obligations to such organizations, so far as they are concerned they shall have no work at all.

There are others, still, who discuss schemes for doing great and good things for working people, excepting, so far as it has come under the notice of the writer, to pay fair, honest wages.

This whole business of doing something for working people is disgusting and degrading to the last degree. It is not desirable to deny that in some quarters the question is asked honestly, but in such cases it is always in order to manifest pity for the questioner.

He is not inconvenienced by a surplus of brains. The question, What can we do for working people? as a general proposition, finds its resemblance in a question that might be asked by the owner of a sheep ranch, What can I do for the sheep? The reply would be, doubtless, shear them. The ranch man takes care of the sheep that he may shear them, and it will be found that the men who ask with so much pharisaical solicitude, What can we do for working men? are the very ones who shear them the closest when the opportunity offers strip them of everything of value that they may the more easily subjugate them by necessities of cold and hunger and nakedness, degrade and brutalize them to a degree that they become as fixed in their servitude as the wheels, cogs, cranks, and pins in the machinery they purchase and operate

The real question to be propounded is, What can workingmen do for themselves? The answer is ready. They can do all things required, if they are independent, self-respecting, self-reliant men.


Workingmen can organize. Workingmen can combine, federate, unify, cooperate, harmonize, act in concert. This done, workingmen could control governmental affairs. They could elect honest men to office. They could make wise constitutions, enact just laws, and repeal vicious laws. By acting together they could overthrow monopolies and trusts. They could squeeze the water out of stocks, and decree that dividends shall be declared only upon cash investments. They could make the cornering of food products of the country a crime, and send the scoundrels guilty of the crime to the penitentiary.
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Nov-28-07 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
25. Zogby - massaging primary numbers since 2000
been posting that before - whenever he's been showing Dems losing to GOP-ers (I believe he especially has it in for Hillary)
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. He had Kerry winning in 2004 - on election day.
That's honesty. And he knew it was a rigged deal too, simply by the expression on his face when they asked him 'What happened to your numbers.'

Why was Hillary's campaign the leading purchaser, of all campaigns, of Zogby polling data?

But it's not about her. The leaders all suck wind across the board, Edwards less than the big two.

People see HRC and Obama morphing into establishment, "move to the center" bots and they are turned off.

They remember the last year, the failed promises of 2006, and they're at the limit.

This is prime time for a real third party. Remember Perot I. He could have won, he was going to win. That's how long the public has been clear on the corpratist scam. They want a real choice, real solutoins.
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Kurovski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
28. K&R.
So what's Al Gore doing these days?

Damn.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-29-07 10:09 PM
Response to Original message
29. Apology for error!

I offer my substantial apologies for the error in this article by referring to Fred Thompson as Tommy, which obviously effects one key aspect of the article. It was unintentional but wrong and I take responsibility for the mistake. Again, I apologize. The article at Scoop will carry this apology and a correction. Michael Collins

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